Bone-chilling kidnapping-attempt story

[Cigarbutt]

We should all try to judge each potential fact we happen upon individually and assign it a probability rather than a binary true/false.

 

A "story" can be appraised for its level of interest (true or not) and can also be appraised for its validity. It can be a two-step process.

Given the nature of this Board, the fact that the red flag detector gets activated should not be surprising.

 

Imagine you are the investigator taking the complaint. You need to balance an open mind with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Some people appear to be very good at it (verbal and non-verbal cues, checklists etc).

A lot of work however shows that, in general, we are poor at BS detection and individual auto-evaluations at this show a particularly high level of overestimation of capability.

 

If you read this Liberty, could share a +/- number on your 70% assumption?

 

For those who have time or who are interested, here are two potentially useful links. The first one is from Carl Sagan who offers a version of a baloney detection kit (what to do and what not to do) and the second link draws a nice parallel to business decisions, including the risks involved with emotional tagging. BTW, a lot of related work can be found on Google Scholar :).

https://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/03/baloney-detection-kit-carl-sagan/

http://hansvanelk.nl/uploads/HBR%20Why%20Good%20Leaders%20Make%20Bad%20Decicions.pdf

[Liberty]

If you read this Liberty, could share a +/- number on your 70% assumption?

 

No, I've already shared way more thoughts on this story than my share. But since you brought it up, I'd love to see your numbers and assumptions on it.

[Cigarbutt]

If you read this Liberty, could share a +/- number on your 70% assumption?

 

No, I've already shared way more thoughts on this story than my share. But since you brought it up, I'd love to see your numbers and assumptions on it.

 

I think this specific thread has three levels of questioning.

 

1-Is the story interesting/of interest?

 

I value your posts (investment and others) and I continue to assume that you filter your posts on necessity and relevance. I thought the reddit story was relatively interesting. Healthy reminder that rare events occur rarely but when it's you, it's a 100%.

 

2-Is the story true?

 

That's the question you're asking me.

As the thread evolved, many fellow members questioned if the story was true.

 

My answer: I don't know. 50% +/- 50%. Maybe 51% at this point given the nature of the alleged crime and given the status of the information available now.

 

The first step is circle of competence but how can one derive a precise conclusion with such a fragmentary and anonymous on-line piece of evidence?

 

3-How biases can interfere with critical thinking and decision making?

 

That's the question that I find most interesting in this thread when my impression is that conclusions are reached and some steps are skipped.

Legitimate complaint or fake news? Trying to balance an open mind with a healthy dose of skepticism.

[oddballstocks]

No idea about this story. But have a close friend who’s daughter is friends with a woman who went through something like this. She was kidnapped, trafficked etc. She escaped and started a support organization for other women with those experiences.

 

It’s an out of sight, out of mind thing for me. But my friend said that this woman’s group is very active in Pittsburgh. And this sort of thing happens here.

[writser]

Not the most exciting kidnapping attempt. In some countries this would be considered a rejected marriage proposal.

[rkbabang]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2018/07/27/jake-wilson-mollie-tibbetts-iowa-missing-missing-vigil-la-porte-brooklyn-evansdale-girls-waterloo/839536002/

[Foreign Tuffett]

I don't want to denigrate the traumatic experience the author of the story experienced (if she did, in fact, experience it), but I am solidly in the skeptic camp here.

 

No description of the car whatsoever, but in one of her other comments the author notes that "The car had a yellow foreign license plate, I couldn’t tell what country at the time though." How did she know it was from a foreign country despite not being able to identify it?

 

Lots of extraneous details, but the details of what happened are actually somewhat vague. Was she pulled into the front passenger seat of the car, or the back seat? I think if you read her story closely there are details that seem inconsistent with either possibility.

 

Author "didn't stay around" for the police report and doesn't "know if anything ever happened with it." I guess this means none of the five adult men she was with had the presence of mind to wait for the police to show up? Her husband didn't follow up with the cops after his wife was almost kidnapped in front of him? I think the police would have had a really good shot at finding three Eastern European guys driving around in a car with a yellow foreign license plate...

 

No mention of how long ago any of this happened. Again, this seems like an odd detail to leave out given how much extraneous detail the story includes.

 

 

[Jurgis]

I don't want to denigrate the traumatic experience the author of the story experienced (if she did, in fact, experience it), but I am solidly in the skeptic camp here.

 

No description of the car whatsoever, but in one of her other comments the author notes that "The car had a yellow foreign license plate, I couldn’t tell what country at the time though." How did she know it was from a foreign country despite not being able to identify it?

 

Lots of extraneous details, but the details of what happened are actually somewhat vague. Was she pulled into the front passenger seat of the car, or the back seat? I think if you read her story closely there are details that seem inconsistent with either possibility.

 

Author "didn't stay around" for the police report and doesn't "know if anything ever happened with it." I guess this means none of the five adult men she was with had the presence of mind to wait for the police to show up? Her husband didn't follow up with the cops after his wife was almost kidnapped in front of him? I think the police would have had a really good shot at finding three Eastern European guys driving around in a car with a yellow foreign license plate...

 

No mention of how long ago any of this happened. Again, this seems like an odd detail to leave out given how much extraneous detail the story includes.

 

Agreed that foreign license plate in Austin, TX is quite unlikely. Overall foreign license plates are very unlikely in US (compared to Europe, for example). Maybe few Canadian ones closer to Canadian border.

 

It's possible though that this was a real incident. Just likely not a trafficking kidnapping but drunken guys trying to pick up (grab) a girl for (likely) rape. This is possible IMO given time and description. And then the details got embellished in the story.

 

Edit: Like writser jokes, there are definitely places/countries where this could happen. So try to be safe. Though I doubt this forum reaches a lot of women who are at risk for such crime...

[SharperDingaan]

"When I see people wanting to dismiss it outright, I look at their reasons, and in this case, find them to be weak and double-standards and things I don't get when I post similar things about men ("she didn't write it how I think she should've, there's no date and police record on this anonymous story, people don't make movie reference when telling the truth" (seriously, you know that out of 7 billion people nobody references movies when something movie-like happens to them?), etc). That's all I'm saying."

 

There's no weak reasoning or double-standard being applied; the example simply failed the smell test, repeatedly, and by multiple independent reviewers. Preferring not to recognise it, doesn't change factual reality.

 

Thousands of people get engaged, around the world, every day (ie: a dramatic event).

The collective 'they' doesn't reference movies; the movies reference THEM - and do so to sell movie tickets (ie: commercial propaganda). The only reason to reference a make-believe source (ie: a movie) is so as to spread the content to as many susceptiible people as possible (propaganda)

 

SD

 

 

 

[Sharad]

A couple more comments by the original poster of the story:

 

Q: How did you deal with it?

 

A: I didn’t. I went home and never mentioned it again. My husband completely withdrew and 2 weeks later told me he’s haunted by what could’ve happened and he didn’t stop it. He wasn’t even one of the two people who rescued me. So he felt extremely guilty and I couldn’t even help him much cause I was in complete denial mode

 

The bouncer who got me out of the car called the manager who called the police and filed the report. They said they would pull security footage and see but no one was sure if it could be seen. Because when the car pulled up it pulled behind another car, when it pulled away and they pulled me inside, they were driving and the parked car blocks the view of me being pulled in (which is also why no one saw at first, until they heard me scream).

I regret everyday not going to the police and telling everything I remembered that night. I was so scared and in shock I went home and never mentioned it again and I feel panicked when I think of it. Someone commented above I could still report this so that’s what I will do.

 

 

So, the guys in the passenger seat lunged out of the car, through parked cars, pulled her in, was able to reverse his lunging momentum out of the car to pull her in, whilst they drove away without missing a beat? We're looking for gumby. It shouldn't be so hard to find him.

 

 

 

In reference to whether it matters if things are true or not, it does and it doesn't. This takes away from real tragedies in that we lose sight of human trafficking which can and does happen very often. This also takes away from the way a lot of criminals are attacking people, especially the elderly and women. However, the facts in the news are real: human trafficking is an epidemic. People in general need to be careful when out in public, inebriated. With more and more contact with more and more people, clearly bad things can and will happen. Best to be prepared at all times.

[Liberty]

So, the guys in the passenger seat lunged out of the car, through parked cars, pulled her in, was able to reverse his lunging momentum out of the car to pull her in, whilst they drove away without missing a beat? We're looking for gumby. It shouldn't be so hard to find him.

 

This is how real stories are pulled apart by people like Alex Jones and his conspiracy theorists. Someone's describing a complex thing as best as they can with only a few details, people try to picture that in their head (sometimes the wrong way, because maybe the car couldn't move forward very fast because of traffic/pedestrians crossing, maybe they got in from driver side or passenger side, maybe the parked cars we spaced wide apart with lots of space, maybe if you saw a photo of the street where it happened it would completely change your mental picture, maybe she's assuming things about the others in the group - ie. why they didn't see, but in fact they were just distracted and not expecting this -, or other important details that weren't included or even noticed by the person, etc) and it doesn't quite work in their mental picture built on sparse details from a witness's memory (which we know isn't like a photo or video when it comes to details, even if what they describe actually happened), so they call BS.

 

I'm still in the "I don't know, but probably" camp.

[SharperDingaan]

"Someone's describing a complex 'made-up' thing as best as they can with only a few details",

is no diffferent to someone describing a complex 'alternative fact' as best they can - with only a few details (to get caught on!  :)))

 

SD

 

 

 

 

[Sharad]

So, the guys in the passenger seat lunged out of the car, through parked cars, pulled her in, was able to reverse his lunging momentum out of the car to pull her in, whilst they drove away without missing a beat? We're looking for gumby. It shouldn't be so hard to find him.

 

This is how real stories are pulled apart by people like Alex Jones and his conspiracy theorists. Someone's describing a complex thing as best as they can with only a few details, people try to picture that in their head (sometimes the wrong way, because maybe the car couldn't move forward very fast because of traffic/pedestrians crossing, maybe they got in from driver side or passenger side, maybe the parked cars we spaced wide apart with lots of space, maybe if you saw a photo of the street where it happened it would completely change your mental picture, maybe she's assuming things about the others in the group - ie. why they didn't see, but in fact they were just distracted and not expecting this -, or other important details that weren't included or even noticed by the person, etc) and it doesn't quite work in their mental picture built on sparse details from a witness's memory (which we know isn't like a photo or video when it comes to details, even if what they describe actually happened), so they call BS.

 

I'm still in the "I don't know, but probably" camp.

 

Equating my skepticism to a man who creates his own news (he simply makes stuff up) is interesting. You ask people to believe a story online from some random anonymous person, but don't believe another guy doing the exact same thing. I'll just write it how I see it: I don't believe the news story until I've read perspectives from both sides of the aisle (I read the WSJ, WaPo, NYT, National Post, G&M, etc.). We all believe stories that fit our personal narrative. As an example, you simply wrote Alex Jones' name in responding to my comment to dismiss my skepticism. I wouldn't say you're in the "I don't know, but probably" camp due to the dismissive nature of your comment. I am in the "it didn't happen, but made a good story to get a lot of Reddit followers" camp.

 

I didn't go on and on explaining my skepticism, but it seems interesting that the narrator wrote about talking to the bouncer after the incident about cameras at the club, and the fact there were parked cars, etc., knew that the bouncer talked to the manager of the club, yet, after gathering all the facts, she both still had time to leave a scene of the crime before the police arrived and chose to, given, in literally any city in North America a large number of police officers would be due to the large gathering of inebriated people. Usually I don't believe what's written by random anonymous people online. I think it's usually best.

 

I won't be posting on this topic further, but look forward to your insights on CSU and other investment ideas in the future, Liberty (insights which I respect and appreciate for that matter).

 

Good day.

[Liberty]

So, the guys in the passenger seat lunged out of the car, through parked cars, pulled her in, was able to reverse his lunging momentum out of the car to pull her in, whilst they drove away without missing a beat? We're looking for gumby. It shouldn't be so hard to find him.

 

This is how real stories are pulled apart by people like Alex Jones and his conspiracy theorists. Someone's describing a complex thing as best as they can with only a few details, people try to picture that in their head (sometimes the wrong way, because maybe the car couldn't move forward very fast because of traffic/pedestrians crossing, maybe they got in from driver side or passenger side, maybe the parked cars we spaced wide apart with lots of space, maybe if you saw a photo of the street where it happened it would completely change your mental picture, maybe she's assuming things about the others in the group - ie. why they didn't see, but in fact they were just distracted and not expecting this -, or other important details that weren't included or even noticed by the person, etc) and it doesn't quite work in their mental picture built on sparse details from a witness's memory (which we know isn't like a photo or video when it comes to details, even if what they describe actually happened), so they call BS.

 

I'm still in the "I don't know, but probably" camp.

 

Equating my skepticism to a man who creates his own news (he simply makes stuff up) is interesting. You ask people to believe a story online from some random anonymous person, but don't believe another guy doing the exact same thing. I'll just write it how I see it: I don't believe the news story until I've read perspectives from both sides of the aisle (I read the WSJ, WaPo, NYT, National Post, G&M, etc.). We all believe stories that fit our personal narrative. As an example, you simply wrote Alex Jones' name in responding to my comment to dismiss my skepticism. I wouldn't say you're in the "I don't know, but probably" camp due to the dismissive nature of your comment. I am in the "it didn't happen, but made a good story to get a lot of Reddit followers" camp.

 

I didn't go on and on explaining my skepticism, but it seems interesting that the narrator wrote about talking to the bouncer after the incident about cameras at the club, and the fact there were parked cars, etc., knew that the bouncer talked to the manager of the club, yet, after gathering all the facts, she both still had time to leave a scene of the crime before the police arrived and chose to, given, in literally any city in North America a large number of police officers would be due to the large gathering of inebriated people. Usually I don't believe what's written by random anonymous people online. I think it's usually best.

 

I won't be posting on this topic further, but look forward to your insights on CSU and other investment ideas in the future, Liberty (insights which I respect and appreciate for that matter).

 

Good day.

 

To be clear, I didn't equate what you wrote with Alex Jones. I said it's a tactic used by conspiracy theorists, and it's the first name that comes to mind when I think about these guys. Jones does a lot more than just use that tactic.

 

It's like when some woman accused Trump of sexually assaulting her in a plane years ago (I know, now people will get on my case for mentioning Trump again -- but it's the availability bias, a lot of the craziest stories in the past couple years have had to do with him, so it's fresh in memory, and most people have followed them, so they know what I'm talking about without having to give a thousand details). She mentioned him raising the armrest in the seat. Then the crowd dug up details of plane seats in those years and found that the seat might not have had a retractable armrest, so they said her story was obviously untrue because of it and she was making it up.

 

I'm pointing out that knowledge of how human psychology and memory works means that these types of details - missing details, or present details that are wrong - don't make stories untrue. Everybody is trying to have a "gotcha" with some minor detail like it's some episode of CSI or whatever, but our brains (mine and yours too) remember the big things that stand out and fill in lots of other small details, or create narratives from fragmented details because "it has to have happened something like this to make sense". If you spend a lot of your life sitting in certain types of airplanes seats, you'll probably fill in the detail that the seat at the time was like that, or just get it wrong. It doesn't mean that someone grabbing your breasts and putting his hand up your skirt wasn't something you'd remember on a different level than the kind of seat you were sitting in.

 

I think the same applies with a lot of these stories. It's fine for you not to believe it. I'm just pointing out that the way you described it not being credible (imagining it exactly as only the details that were used in the telling and seeing mechanical challenges with it) has some flaws. I know mentioning Jones probably shut down thinking because it creates an emotional response, so it probably wasn't a wise choice, but I think my points about witness accounts stand.

 

I am in the "it didn't happen, but made a good story to get a lot of Reddit followers" camp.

 

The anonymous account was created on July 28 to post that story and only has posted three comments ever. I think it's a throwaway account that might not be used again. Not much to gain, here.

 

Someone else mentioned the yellow license plate. Ever thought that maybe guys who were going to do a kidnapping unscrewed the real license plate, put in a fake one for their drive, and then swapped them again? Or who knows, just saying that reality is always full of unexpected things like this and finding a weird thing in a story doesn't make it untrue. That's why we often hear something along the lines of "if this had happened in a movie, it wouldn't seem credible" after a real event.

 

Cheers.