nickenumbers Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 You guys nailed the calculations. In the words of Charlie Munger- "I have nothing more to add." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Inside my head, I still have the B share at USD 250 intrinsic value, based on the last three Semper Augustus Letters, plus about ~USD 30 B of discount to the float, based on considerations made here on CoBF by rb, not included in the Semper Augustus Letters. So, pretty brutal run-up today, but still cheap to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karthikpm Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Inside my head, I still have the B share at USD 250 intrinsic value, based on the last three Semper Augustus Letters, plus about ~30 B of discount to the float, based considerations made here on CoBF by rb, not included in the Semper Augustus Letters. So, pretty brutal run-up today, but still cheap to me. +1.. not a brutal run up at all given how wide the discount is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Inside my head, I still have the B share at USD 250 intrinsic value, based on the last three Semper Augustus Letters, plus about ~30 B of discount to the float, based considerations made here on CoBF by rb, not included in the Semper Augustus Letters. So, pretty brutal run-up today, but still cheap to me. +1.. not a brutal run up at all given how wide the discount is karthikpm, Well, yes - that's relative to your BRK position size. To me, short term, the game has changed for Berkshire stock. Based on the announcement last evening US time, an invasion is now going on by day traders [perhaps some them with huge intraday limits], speculators & lemmings. [i don't think the shorts are here.] Please take a look at the trading in B share today. Take advantage of the volatility, or just buckle up for the next period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Agreed. 5% is not a brutal run up...... Inside my head, I still have the B share at USD 250 intrinsic value, based on the last three Semper Augustus Letters, plus about ~30 B of discount to the float, based considerations made here on CoBF by rb, not included in the Semper Augustus Letters. So, pretty brutal run-up today, but still cheap to me. +1.. not a brutal run up at all given how wide the discount is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Maybe one day, it’ll be changed to BANG? Disclaimer: Not to be taken seriously (or is it?) FANG could soon be ANG, lol. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-conference-call-that-shook-investor-faith-in-facebook-1532589109 Wheels coming off? GDPR was spun to favor FB by driving out smaller competitors. Turns out that FB feels the impact of opt-outs already. And it was just one month in the quarter that GDPR went into effect. Wait until California GDPR kicks in. But the last paragraph has, to me, the nub of the matter. There’s a real limit to ad spending and digital ads come under that ceiling. Once enough advertisers realize the efficacy of digital ads is something they need to assess for themselves we will see the steady state growth of digital ads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dynamic Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 My estimate of Book Value if it were calculated up to yesterday 3 August comes to $150 and change per B Share. That is not adjusted for Kraft Heinz price increase. That has advanced a long way from 31 March and from 30 June's estimated $145.10 - 145.20 that will be revealed in a few hours, so the error bars are probably fairly wide - maybe +/-$0.50 around the $150 estimate of yesterday's BV. It depends what assumptions Mr Market has factored into the current stock price and whether the Q2 results are a positive surprise, but it's certainly possible that 3rd August 2018 was the last day BRK.B traded below $200. I hope not - I'd love to pick up more at low prices when I have more funds available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 My estimate of Book Value if it were calculated up to yesterday 3 August comes to $150 and change per B Share. That is not adjusted for Kraft Heinz price increase. That has advanced a long way from 31 March and from 30 June's estimated $145.10 - 145.20 that will be revealed in a few hours, so the error bars are probably fairly wide - maybe +/-$0.50 around the $150 estimate of yesterday's BV. It depends what assumptions Mr Market has factored into the current stock price and whether the Q2 results are a positive surprise, but it's certainly possible that 3rd August 2018 was the last day BRK.B traded below $200. I hope not - I'd love to pick up more at low prices when I have more funds available. I hope not also, but at the close I went ahead and wrote some 195 and 197.5 strike puts thinking 200 might be in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuehalla Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 The quarter in done BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV BRK.B price $186.65 -6.4% since end Q1 BV per B app $145.20 1.29 app 3 % up since end Q1 KHC adj BVPS app $146.10 1.28 app 3 % up since end Q1 BRK a big big buy ! Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV FIGURES ARE OUT : 145.118 $ per B (217.755 A) The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing. BRK is now ( today) extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 And BV doesn't include AAPL's recent run up. And look at operating earnings growth... Could be $9/share for 2018. So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings... Seems like you are pretending that operating businesses aren't included in book value at all. Just because some of them are held at figures much lower than their current value doesn't mean you should pretend that book value doesn't include huge sums for operating businesses that produce those earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 Not sure where to put the BRK - AAPL comments but in the 10Q they show Apple at 47.2 Billion dollars, where it's closing price was 185.11. So we can derive that Berkshire held approximately 254.98 million shares of Apple stock at the end of the quarter, much higher than most people were assuming - and consistent with something Warren muttered under his breath in one of the Becky Quick interviews that it was 'something like 250 million' at that point. Current value of 254.98 million Apple shares: 53 Billion dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 Berkshire earnings going parabolic: 67% increase in operating income. 44% increase in operating income if you take out insurance underwriting profits... insane growth numbers for a boring, old-school, old-economy company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 You've got to love an investment/insurance company with $712 Billion in assets that has their Fixed Maturity (bonds) portfolio at $18.5 Billion. Hmmm. Does Warren like long term bonds right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 the short end of the treasury curve spiking over the last year means that the $100B cash stockpile is generating 2% or $2B a year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings... Seems like you are pretending that operating businesses aren't included in book value at all. Just because some of them are held at figures much lower than their current value doesn't mean you should pretend that book value doesn't include huge sums for operating businesses that produce those earnings. Sure, though if you just look at the liquid assets like cash, stocks, and bonds, they alone are $130/share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted August 4, 2018 Author Share Posted August 4, 2018 Outstanding! The quarter in done BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV BRK.B price $186.65 -6.4% since end Q1 BV per B app $145.20 1.29 app 3 % up since end Q1 KHC adj BVPS app $146.10 1.28 app 3 % up since end Q1 BRK a big big buy ! Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV FIGURES ARE OUT : 145.118 $ per B (217.755 A) The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing. BRK is now ( today) extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 So $200 - $150/share BV = $50/share for $10/share of real operating earnings... Seems like you are pretending that operating businesses aren't included in book value at all. Just because some of them are held at figures much lower than their current value doesn't mean you should pretend that book value doesn't include huge sums for operating businesses that produce those earnings. Sure, though if you just look at the liquid assets like cash, stocks, and bonds, they alone are $130/share. I get it, but it seemed an odd approach to just subtract book value. Additionally, operating income includes investment income on those assets, which is double counting even if you use the 130/share number. I do understand the two column method of valuing Berkshire though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 The quarter in done BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV BRK.B price $186.65 -6.4% since end Q1 BV per B app $145.20 1.29 app 3 % up since end Q1 KHC adj BVPS app $146.10 1.28 app 3 % up since end Q1 BRK a big big buy ! Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV FIGURES ARE OUT : 145.118 $ per B (217.755 A) The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing. BRK is now ( today) extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc Great work Valuehalla! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 Not sure where to put the BRK - AAPL comments but in the 10Q they show Apple at 47.2 Billion dollars, where it's closing price was 185.11. So we can derive that Berkshire held approximately 254.98 million shares of Apple stock at the end of the quarter, much higher than most people were assuming - and consistent with something Warren muttered under his breath in one of the Becky Quick interviews that it was 'something like 250 million' at that point. Current value of 254.98 million Apple shares: 53 Billion dollars. What an amazing calculation!, globalfinancepartners, Thank you for digging up the info and doing the calculation. It's almost like Berkshire on an escalator ... - Apple being the escalator, that is. The concept of "meaningful position size" is being taken to the next level here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 In lieu of using numerators, the one denominator that counts from here on is share count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 The gift still keeps giving. It´s good to be 100% in Berkshire. :) I love the Apple position and the earnings increase. I regret that I didn't have bought more Berkshire or Apple for my parents (40% invested in Berkshire, 0% in Apple). We will see if the share price will move up fast or if there are enough people willing to sell with the good possibility to selling shares to Warren and Charlie. It´s a No-Brainer not to. ;-) There´s a good chance that Warren and Charlie will pay up to 1,40-1,45 P/B and with P/B of 1,399 now it will be interesting to watch. The buybacks can begin next Monday.... Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuehalla Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 the price to book value is now app 1.32, not 1.399 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 304671 / 217677 = 1.399 I´m conservative. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuehalla Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 Ok thats in fact a good point. Maybe WEB and CM look on it in the same way. We will see. But to me, I think its wrong, not conservative. Becasue the BV today is app 225.600. This means already 3,6 % up since end Q2. And believe me, my calculation is already conservative in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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