Firearms - RGR and AOBC

[valueventures]

Hi all,

 

I have recently started researching RGR and AOBC and am considering an investment. Both have been punished by the market since the election and appear cheap. I am expecting firearm demand to rebound long-term and feel that these companies stand to benefit. Has anyone else looked into RGR and AOBC and, if so, what are your thoughts?

 

 

[bskptkl]

You might want to include VSTO - just written up last week on VIC.

I have no opinion on any of these.

[no_free_lunch]

RGR seems ball park reasonable.  Unless there is growth it's hard to justify a much higher price.  I would be concerned about competition.  How hard is it to get into this industry?  Couldn't there be new competitors?  You combine that with a market that is probably mnore or less at a plateau and I am skeptical.

 

It has come down a lot so I could be wrong.

[StubbleJumper]

I've never understood the firearms industry.  My understanding is that a gun is basically good forever, unless you are the type of person who shoots a ridiculous number of rounds every week, or you don't maintain it.  So where's the demand from?  Is it from a growing US population which increases demand for firearms?  Is it from an increasing penetration of firearms (ie, the percentage of households who have a gun)?  Is it from increasing the number of firearms per owner-household?  It really strikes me that this should be a pretty mature industry with not much demand.

 

 

Now, contrast that with the auto industry which I understand better.  Cars wear out and need to be replaced.  The number of drivers increases with population, and the number of cars per household has gone up.

 

 

So, is there anybody who knows about the firearms market who can shed some light on market prospects?

 

 

SJ

[Pelagic]

I've never understood the firearms industry.  My understanding is that a gun is basically good forever, unless you are the type of person who shoots a ridiculous number of rounds every week, or you don't maintain it.  So where's the demand from?  Is it from a growing US population which increases demand for firearms?  Is it from an increasing penetration of firearms (ie, the percentage of households who have a gun)?  Is it from increasing the number of firearms per owner-household?  It really strikes me that this should be a pretty mature industry with not much demand.

 

 

Now, contrast that with the auto industry which I understand better.  Cars wear out and need to be replaced.  The number of drivers increases with population, and the number of cars per household has gone up.

 

 

So, is there anybody who knows about the firearms market who can shed some light on market prospects?

 

 

SJ

 

Greater penetration across demographics. The firearm industry is making a concerted effort to attract women and millennials to the sport as well as groups where gun ownership isn't traditionally part of their culture. Essentially, we're seeing a change in the industry from the older white male demographic that has historically enjoyed firearms to a more inclusive slice of the American population.

 

One gun is like one pair of shoes, you don't have just one. Gun owners love to show off their newest acquisition and even if it only gets 20 rounds through it all year it will be in their gun safe as part of their collection. Guns aren't terribly expensive and a day at the range with friends can be thought of like going golfing. Gun owners want to have a collection of "clubs" to take to the range with them and shoot as each is different. Between an increasing slice of the American population interested in shooting sports, active efforts by the industry to attract a more diverse demographic, and the easy availability of a wide range of firearms I think there's a case to be made for industry wide growth.

 

Another factor that helps is great liquidity in the used market for guns. As you mentioned, they don't wear out, especially given the use conditions the average American gun owner puts them through, and with proper maintenance a firearm can last several decades and hold its value relatively well. The advent of online platforms that allow for sales between users helps spur the purchase of more new firearms - it's easier to justify a new purchase if there's a healthy used market for the product one can sell it into with little depreciation. I also think there's a novelty factor to just owning different guns, they all shoot a little differently and gun owners want to have choices.

 

With that said, the industry has a vested interest in marketing to new users, if that starts to die out or shooting sports become less popular growth will slow down. Gun owners interested exclusively in home defense are a separate and much smaller subset of users and I think a lot of your points make sense with them in mind but users interested in shooting sports and to a lesser extent hunting will continue to buy new (or new to them used) firearms well in excess of their "needs" for hunting or sporting.

[rkbabang]

I've never understood the firearms industry.  My understanding is that a gun is basically good forever, unless you are the type of person who shoots a ridiculous number of rounds every week, or you don't maintain it.  So where's the demand from?  Is it from a growing US population which increases demand for firearms?  Is it from an increasing penetration of firearms (ie, the percentage of households who have a gun)?  Is it from increasing the number of firearms per owner-household?  It really strikes me that this should be a pretty mature industry with not much demand.

 

 

Now, contrast that with the auto industry which I understand better.  Cars wear out and need to be replaced.  The number of drivers increases with population, and the number of cars per household has gone up.

 

 

So, is there anybody who knows about the firearms market who can shed some light on market prospects?

 

As mentioned above demographic changes, women are starting to get into shooting and self defence training like never before.  That and the liberalizing of concealed carry laws are changing the types of firearms which are in demand.  Both of these factors are driving a shift towards concealability as being important.  Ruger has a few highly regarded firearms in this space.  I actually just purchased a Ruger LCP II.  It is a .380 that is highly concealable, only 0.75" wide so perfect for a pocket or a purse.  It just came out a few months ago and is a vast improvement over the original Ruger LCP.  On the LCP II the slide locks back after your last round (important for knowing that you've fired your last round and for ease of reloading quickly), the trigger has a Glock-like trigger safety, and I've heard that it is easier to shoot (less snappy with a smother/lighter trigger pull) than the original.  I've never shot the original LCP, but the LCP II is very nice to shoot.  I've actually starting looking at RGR a little bit after buying it, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

 

 

EDIT:  Ruger LCP II

Also their LC9 is not much larger and chambered in 9MM, just a little too big for pocket carry, but still easily concealed inside the waistband or in a purse and of course 9mm is a more effective caliber.  http://www.ruger-firearms.com/products/lc9s/models.html

 

[Dustin T]

Firearms do wear out. It Depends on the caliber, but its somewhere around 10,000+ rounds so it's usually never reached. Firearms hold their value very well if they are treated properly. Values usually drop 20% when you walk out of the store but then slowly raise with inflation over the years with some models doing better or worse.

 

I own several Ruger's and they make excellent products.

[rukawa]

RGR seems ball park reasonable.

 

Why is it reasonable? It looks like a high quality business. I would have expected the multiple to be around at least 18. The current value only makes sense if there is negative growth. It definitely looks cheap. As does AOBC. There is a strong expectation that sales where high due to uncertainty about the election and should trend lower going forward.

[rukawa]

Looking at Value Line it appears that RGR did pretty badly from about 2002-2008. AOBC has an even longer bad period from about 2001-2010. RGR seems to be the better company.

 

Its a real question as to how much of the growth from 2008-2016 is due to Obama scaring gun-owners and how much is due to gun companies reaching out to new demographics. Ruger's results seems to coincide pretty much with the Bush and Obama administrations. I would say to understand the valuation you have to estimate how much gun sales are driven by political fears.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/frankminiter/2016/04/12/the-gun-industry-says-it-has-grown-158-since-obama-took-office/#6b76d12a56ae

 

The gun industry published a report saying it’s not only doing just fine, but has actually grown by 158% since 2008. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), the trade association for firearms manufacturers, reported that the total economic impact of the firearms and ammunition industry in the U.S. increased from $19.1 billion in 2008 to $49.3 billion in 2015. The NSSF also reported that, in that same time period, the total number of full-time jobs related to gun making in the U.S. rose from about 166,000 to almost 288,000.

[no_free_lunch]

Rukawa. For all the reasons people have listed. Competition, possible sales peak.  I would only pay 18x if i was confident earnings could slowly grow.  I think technology could disrupt the industry at some point.

 

If i had to buy one id buy rgr just because they seem to have a brand.

[rukawa]

Rukawa. For all the reasons people have listed. Competition, possible sales peak.  I would only pay 18x if i was confident earnings could slowly grow.  I think technology could disrupt the industry at some point.

 

If i had to buy one id buy rgr just because they seem to have a brand.

 

After looking at the history I'm inclined to agree with your original assessment but I am not sure about competition. I feel like a gun is something most people would trust to a brand name because of the safety issues. For the technology are you talking about 3-d printed guns or making guns with milling machines?

 

Anybody have insight on Smith&Wesson. I always thought of that as a strong brand but looking at the historical financial results it appears to be really poorly managed. Plus the name change indicates that the brand is dead.

 

Looking on the internet it appears that Smith & Wesson got killed because they went along with the Clinton administration on gun control and the NRA at one point initiated a boycott. I'm guessing this destroyed their brand:

http://www.businessinsider.com/smith-and-wesson-almost-went-out-of-business-trying-to-do-the-right-thing-2013-1

 

This business is hugely driven by politics.

[no_free_lunch]

For the technology are you talking about 3-d printed guns or making guns with milling machines?

 

I think robotics could significantly lower labour costs.  Which would be good in the short-term but long-term could lead to lower pricing.  I don't know, to me it just feels like a tech company.  Hard to predict what will happen.  It could do good but I am not confident in that outcome.

[rukawa]

I think robotics could significantly lower labour costs.  Which would be good in the short-term but long-term could lead to lower pricing.  I don't know, to me it just feels like a tech company.  Hard to predict what will happen.  It could do good but I am not confident in that outcome.

 

But that shouldn't really effect profit margins. The only way profit margin do get effected is if guns are seen as commodity goods like usb cables or if there are new entrants into the industry. Lower labour costs would probably actually help gun makers since it would increase the number of gun users.

 

My fear is the market for used guns. I feel like the number of guns that got bought during the Obama administration was way too many because gun owners were afraid. Now with Trump I can see these guys selling their guns regretting the purchases of guns they never use.  They will sell them onto the used market which should really hurt the market for new guns. I would want to be these guys:

http://www.armslist.com/

[rkbabang]

I think robotics could significantly lower labour costs.  Which would be good in the short-term but long-term could lead to lower pricing.  I don't know, to me it just feels like a tech company.  Hard to predict what will happen.  It could do good but I am not confident in that outcome.

 

But that shouldn't really effect profit margins. The only way profit margin do get effected is if guns are seen as commodity goods like usb cables or if there are new entrants into the industry. Lower labour costs would probably actually help gun makers since it would increase the number of gun users.

 

My fear is the market for used guns. I feel like the number of guns that got bought during the Obama administration was way too many because gun owners were afraid. Now with Trump I can see these guys selling their guns regretting the purchases of guns they never use.  They will sell them onto the used market which should really hurt the market for new guns. I would want to be these guys:

http://www.armslist.com/

 

I never understood the concept of actually selling a gun.  Many gun owners don't, so I'm not so sure that will be significant.  People tend to collect guns not sell them and if they do sell them it is only because there is another one they want but can't afford.  So many used gun sales will translate into new gun sales.

 

Also guns tend to hold their value fairly well.  I know whenever I've looked into buying a used gun I find myself thinking for only $X more I could just go and buy it new, so I do.  This obviously doesn't apply to rare/antique/collectable items, but I'm not into any of that and that isn't a significant factor in the market we are talking about.

 

Also, even if you are correct and I wrong, this will effect some gun types more than others.  People had the perception that certain rifles that the anti-gun people like to call "assault weapons" because of how they look were in danger of being banned and many stocked up on those, but I don't think the market for handguns, shotguns, or rifles that aren't black and scary looking to the political left will be affected at all by the Obama spike in sales.  Yes, Obama was the world's best firearms salesman and now he's gone, but long term there will be another Obama-like president and gun sales will spike like crazy again.

 

[no_free_lunch]

I think it could affect profit margins if it lowers prices.  What if margins stay the same as a % of revenue.  If your volume doesn't increase then your operating margins go down.  It could also lead to more competition if it is faster / easier to ramp up production.  It is a long-term risk though, just something I think about if I bought into this industry and got stuck in a slump for a decade.

 

It is possible I am completely wrong on the tech thing.  However, like you say there is still politics, used firearms, which indicate secular headwinds.  I am staying out.

[Pelagic]

 

My fear is the market for used guns. I feel like the number of guns that got bought during the Obama administration was way too many because gun owners were afraid. Now with Trump I can see these guys selling their guns regretting the purchases of guns they never use.  They will sell them onto the used market which should really hurt the market for new guns. I would want to be these guys:

http://www.armslist.com/

 

Yes there is a healthy used market but I think its supportive of new gun sales rather than detracting from them. When people go to the range they bring an assortment of guns, some of their guns get shot, some don't but they're still there to shoot. A lot of gun owners like having a collection of guns to shoot and having options available to them. This allows others at the range to see and potentially fire a wide variety of firearms and say well, I liked shooting that one let me buy one too. There may have been a rush to buy because of legislation fears but I don't foresee gun owners flooding the used market with guns anytime soon. I think what's more likely is guns were purchased and locked in safes in a rush to purchase and now owners have saved up enough to equip them as they want them.

 

I think there's also a misconception that a used firearm is a complete package. Rarely does someone purchase a rifle, whether brand new or used, and use as is. Gun owners want to accessorize their guns with scopes, stocks, grips, tacticool gear, you name it. A lot of these parts are purchased new, I don't know the breakdown of new vs. used accessory purchases but I suspect a lot of gun owners are more willing to buy new accessories and a used gun than the other way around. A good scope for instance can be close to or more than the purchase price of the gun. 

 

As for the peer to peer sales sites, frankly I wasn't impressed. It's like the stone age of internet payments on them since PayPal doesn't allow for gun related transactions. You have to trust the person you're dealing with and either do a direct bank transfer to them or send a money order by mail. The purchaser also to go through a local FFL which receives the weapon and somewhat complicates the process and will likely charge a fee as well. What I'm getting at is for most transactions conducted online for firearms the marketplace site, whether it's Armslist or one of the others, is not party to the transaction and thus can only charge a listing fee. I think they do charge a % take on sales through a dealer with an FFL but there's nothing to prevent a buyer contacting that dealer directly.

[rukawa]

Also, even if you are correct and I wrong, this will effect some gun types more than others.  People had the perception that certain rifles that the anti-gun people like to call "assault weapons" because of how they look were in danger of being banned and many stocked up on those, but I don't think the market for handguns, shotguns, or rifles that aren't black and scary looking to the political left will be affected at all by the Obama spike in sales.  Yes, Obama was the world's best firearms salesman and now he's gone, but long term there will be another Obama-like president and gun sales will spike like crazy again.

 

The main reason I made the argument about Obama is the incredible difference between the financial results of RGR in 2000-2007 period vs 2008-2016. Sales declined 20% from 2000 to 2007. Net earnings actually declined in half. RGR actually suspended their dividend in 2006. In 2005/6 RGR earnings were close to zero.

 

Then from 2008-2016 sales nearly quadrupled and net earnings grew by a factor of 10. Profit margins improved from 5% to over 10%.

 

You are really dealing with two totally different companies depending on the political party in power. The political factor is not small at all...its massive. That is assuming I can ascribe all of RGR performance to political factors..its possible there was a turnaround during that time period.

 

BTW, I am curious about your perspective on Smith&Wesson.

[StubbleJumper]

Still not sure what to think about the economics of firearms companies, but thanks to all for their insights.  It's a rare gun thread that adheres to economics and market prospects rather than partisan silliness.

 

 

SJ

[rkbabang]

Also, even if you are correct and I wrong, this will effect some gun types more than others.  People had the perception that certain rifles that the anti-gun people like to call "assault weapons" because of how they look were in danger of being banned and many stocked up on those, but I don't think the market for handguns, shotguns, or rifles that aren't black and scary looking to the political left will be affected at all by the Obama spike in sales.  Yes, Obama was the world's best firearms salesman and now he's gone, but long term there will be another Obama-like president and gun sales will spike like crazy again.

 

The main reason I made the argument about Obama is the incredible difference between the financial results of RGR in 2000-2007 period vs 2008-2016. Sales declined 20% from 2000 to 2007. Net earnings actually declined in half. RGR actually suspended their dividend in 2006. In 2005/6 RGR earnings were close to zero.

 

Then from 2008-2016 sales nearly quadrupled and net earnings grew by a factor of 10. Profit margins improved from 5% to over 10%.

 

You are really dealing with two totally different companies depending on the political party in power. The political factor is not small at all...its massive. That is assuming I can ascribe all of RGR performance to political factors..its possible there was a turnaround during that time period.

 

BTW, I am curious about your perspective on Smith&Wesson.

 

You are correct about politics being a big factor in the industry, which is probably why I've never invested even though I keep looking at these companies over and over again.

 

You were also correct about S&W a few posts back. This pretty much sums up how I feel.

http://www.lneilsmith.org/smithandwessonmustdie.html

 

[LC]

Also, even if you are correct and I wrong, this will effect some gun types more than others.  People had the perception that certain rifles that the anti-gun people like to call "assault weapons" because of how they look were in danger of being banned and many stocked up on those, but I don't think the market for handguns, shotguns, or rifles that aren't black and scary looking to the political left will be affected at all by the Obama spike in sales.  Yes, Obama was the world's best firearms salesman and now he's gone, but long term there will be another Obama-like president and gun sales will spike like crazy again.

 

The main reason I made the argument about Obama is the incredible difference between the financial results of RGR in 2000-2007 period vs 2008-2016. Sales declined 20% from 2000 to 2007. Net earnings actually declined in half. RGR actually suspended their dividend in 2006. In 2005/6 RGR earnings were close to zero.

 

Then from 2008-2016 sales nearly quadrupled and net earnings grew by a factor of 10. Profit margins improved from 5% to over 10%.

 

You are really dealing with two totally different companies depending on the political party in power. The political factor is not small at all...its massive. That is assuming I can ascribe all of RGR performance to political factors..its possible there was a turnaround during that time period.

 

BTW, I am curious about your perspective on Smith&Wesson.

 

You are correct about politics being a big factor in the industry, which is probably why I've never invested even though I keep looking at these companies over and over again.

 

They come up so well when casually looking at the metrics. When you dig deeper it opens up so many questions (at least for me), that I tossed it aside. No sense trying to flip a coin and see whether sales will stay at high levels or drop off.

[DooDiligence]

All statements & figures (rounded) are from the RGR 2015 10K unless otherwise stated.

 

Actual firearms are their primary product with over 90% of manufacturing being done in the USA as well as 95% of revenues.

 

Uses investment casting & metal injection molding (MIM) & could improve margins & response times with the introduction of CAD & CNC.

 

No union employees & performance based compensation accounts for at least 15% of wages which allows for quick adjustments in payroll in the event of slow downs (10% of labor is temp.)

 

Transferred defined benefit pension to 401K in 2014 with a $40.9m income charge & $7.5m cash outlay to fully fund the new program with no future obligation other than discretionary matching which they've been consistently doing at around $4m to $5m per year since 2014.

 

Sales are through distributors with 4 accounting for the majority of sales (Davidson's 18%, Lipsey's, 17%, Sports South 13% & Jerry's/Ellett Bros 12%) & management believes that the loss of any distributor would not affect long term sales (maybe a slight short term decrease as a new distributor picks up the business.)

 

Bad receivables & advertising expenses are minimal.

 

R & D has been less than 1% of revenues for quite some time (they expense instead of capitalizing.)

 

Properties include a total of 915,000 sq ft (most of which is manufacturing & warehousing) with 275,000 leased & the rest owned (no major lease obligations or purchase agreements.)

 

They use LIFO with around a $43.5m reserve (Q3 2016 10Q) & I admit to not fully understanding the implications of LIFO over FIFO (other than it seems like it could be used to game EPS.)

 

Is LIFO just a numbers game or do they actually have $43.5m worth of old guns laying around in cosmoline?

 

The company is very agile with CAPEX as the business environment changes.

 

They accelerated depreciation slightly in 2013 by changing the useful life of machinery & equipment from 10 years to 7.

 

The company uses sell through estimates & inventory levels from distributors to plan production levels & has no access to retailer figures.

 

They also monitor units sold to distributors vs NICS background checks (adjusted for renewals) to anticipate production needs (I find the corrolaries a bit lumpy & would appreciate if anyone would look at this & make better sense of it than I can.)

 

They appear to be very disciplined with buybacks & the dividend varies as a % of earnings from 20% to 60% with an average 49% payout.

 

Risks are obvious & include potential changes to the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act, which management has stated could have material effects on the companies ability to operate.

 

Product liability has been minimal & contingent liabilities are recorded & charged to COGS as incurred/anticipated.

 

The "Investment Community Communications Policy" states that they won't meet individually with investors or analysts & won't issue guidance (I kind of like this...)

 

I don't own a gun & have no desire to either but I'm not going to steer away from what I believe to be a fact (guns are not going away in America.) (I am however, contemplating the purchase of a samuri sword, pike & compound bow to deal with the potential of a Zombie apocalypse )

 

We've had an assasination attempt on a Republican president with major injuries & deaths; horrendous shootings at our nations schools, theatre's, etc. & still, politicians & the public continue to leave gun ownership largely untouched (Waco?  hello...)

 

Alcohol, tobacco & firearms (and Rick's) are here to stay albeit with varying regulatory changes which will affect them all & cannot be ignored or anticipated accurately; but I can't just refuse to invest in one or all strictly for moral or ethical reasons.

 

There are a ton of gaps in what I've written here (mostly the future regulatory / statutory implications) & any comments would be welcome (I bought a third of what I'd like to own so someone talk me out of buying any more...)

 

I won't attempt to hang a valuation on it (I kind of already did with a purchase at $49.80 but I'm basing it on historical PE, PB, PFCF, PS & my own GIGO discounted FCF using a 12% discount & 6% 1-5 years, 8% 6-10 & 8% 11-15 years growth with a 4% terminal & no tangible added.)

 

Earnings call coming up 22 February.

[rkbabang]

Here's a good chart to look at: https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

 

You can see how low firearms sales were during the Bush presidency compared with Obama.  There was a small uptick right after 9/11/01 but then they went right back down.  My biggest fear as far as investing in RGR goes is that sales will drop more and more with Trump in the whitehouse and the Republicans controlling congress.  Redo your calculations with a negative 10-20% growth rate for the next 2 years and a flat growth rate for the 6 years after that, which I think is the worst case.  If this happens that may be a good time to pickup some RGR shares.  But on the other hand RGR is already way below its high, so some of these expectations might already be baked into the stock price.  For me the possible negatives outway the cheap looking price at the moment. 

 

Then again Trump is the master of uncertainty and with uncertainty comes fear.  Also the disdain for him has caused public violence to make the news. Uncertain times are probably good for firearms sales, so maybe sales won't drop off.

 

[DooDiligence]

Here's a good chart to look at: https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

 

You can see how low firearms sales were during the Bush presidency compared with Obama.  There was a small uptick right after 9/11/01 but then they went right back down.  My biggest fear as far as investing in RGR goes is that sales will drop more and more with Trump in the whitehouse and the Republicans controlling congress.  Redo your calculations with a negative 10-20% growth rate for the next 2 years and a flat growth rate for the 6 years after that, which I think is the worst case.  If this happens that may be a good time to pickup some RGR shares.  But on the other hand RGR is already way below its high, so some of these expectations might already be baked into the stock price.  For me the possible negatives outway the cheap looking price at the moment. 

 

Then again Trump is the master of uncertainty and with uncertainty comes fear.  Also the disdain for him has caused public violence to make the news. Uncertain times are probably good for firearms sales, so maybe sales won't drop off.

 

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up.

 

That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...)

[rkbabang]

Here's a good chart to look at: https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

 

You can see how low firearms sales were during the Bush presidency compared with Obama.  There was a small uptick right after 9/11/01 but then they went right back down.  My biggest fear as far as investing in RGR goes is that sales will drop more and more with Trump in the whitehouse and the Republicans controlling congress.  Redo your calculations with a negative 10-20% growth rate for the next 2 years and a flat growth rate for the 6 years after that, which I think is the worst case.  If this happens that may be a good time to pickup some RGR shares.  But on the other hand RGR is already way below its high, so some of these expectations might already be baked into the stock price.  For me the possible negatives outway the cheap looking price at the moment. 

 

Then again Trump is the master of uncertainty and with uncertainty comes fear.  Also the disdain for him has caused public violence to make the news. Uncertain times are probably good for firearms sales, so maybe sales won't drop off.

 

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up.

 

That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...)

 

Somewhere between $20 to $40 I'd be loading up as well.

 

I know you like to fight up close and personal and have your heart set on a sword, pike & bow, but you should really consider this loaded with zombie rounds.

 

[DooDiligence]

Here's a good chart to look at: https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

 

You can see how low firearms sales were during the Bush presidency compared with Obama.  There was a small uptick right after 9/11/01 but then they went right back down.  My biggest fear as far as investing in RGR goes is that sales will drop more and more with Trump in the whitehouse and the Republicans controlling congress.  Redo your calculations with a negative 10-20% growth rate for the next 2 years and a flat growth rate for the 6 years after that, which I think is the worst case.  If this happens that may be a good time to pickup some RGR shares.  But on the other hand RGR is already way below its high, so some of these expectations might already be baked into the stock price.  For me the possible negatives outway the cheap looking price at the moment. 

 

Then again Trump is the master of uncertainty and with uncertainty comes fear.  Also the disdain for him has caused public violence to make the news. Uncertain times are probably good for firearms sales, so maybe sales won't drop off.

 

That gives a value under $20 & if that happened, I'd load up.

 

That said; if it drops to the low to mid $40's I'll add more (I'm also shopping for a sword, pike & bow right now as the Zombie apocalypse seems imminent...)

 

Somewhere between $20 to $40 I'd be loading up as well.

 

I know you like to fight up close and personal and have your heart set on a sword, pike & bow, but you should really consider this loaded with zombie rounds.

 

Everyone knows that Zombies are attracted to loud noises.

 

Guns would be needed for protection against live humans.

 

I think that forming 2 squads with one aimed at Zombies (and hunting for food) & one for protection against hostile humans would be the way to go (I'd keep a sidearm as a backup; probably a totally reliable Blackhawk...)

 

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