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Timeframe of next correction


wescobrk
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As everyone has said, it is impossible... 

 

My main question is trying to figure out how much cash to hold at all times.  I am assuming it is proportional to (overvalued holdings that are sold off) - (high quality deals that can be found and purchased)?

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Thanks for everyones comments.

There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

 

Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

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Thanks for everyones comments.

There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

 

Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

 

Semantics

 

I think most of us here are timing, just not in a broad sense.

 

Waiting on individual issues to be priced right & in my case, holding until the time is right...

 

(timing is everything & patience is a virtue!)

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