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Posted

Obviously, I'm not looking for an exact day or month, but what is everyone's guess of the next 15-20% decline?

I've read one happens every 5 years. I believe the last one we had was in the summer of 2011. We are 5.5 years in.

 

 

Posted

As everyone has said, it is impossible... 

 

My main question is trying to figure out how much cash to hold at all times.  I am assuming it is proportional to (overvalued holdings that are sold off) - (high quality deals that can be found and purchased)?

Posted

Eventually. 

 

Its easier to work bottom up.  As my stocks hit new highs I take a little off the table, bit by bit. 

 

I was just looking at my accounts, trying to figure where I can trim. 

Posted

Thanks for everyones comments.

There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

 

Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

Posted
  On 1/12/2017 at 1:45 PM, wescobrk said:

Thanks for everyones comments.

There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

 

Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

 

Semantics

 

I think most of us here are timing, just not in a broad sense.

 

Waiting on individual issues to be priced right & in my case, holding until the time is right...

 

(timing is everything & patience is a virtue!)

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