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If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for? (Oct. Edition)


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Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) has offered his thoughts, via his blog, Twitter and Periscope, on the elections, and they have been prescient.  For anyone that enjoys watching and talking about the political races, he is a great mind to learn from.  His knowledge of persuasion is top notch.

 

I agree.  Scott Adams is profoundly brilliant.  He has completely transformed my thinking on how people make political decisions.  I now understand why facts & rational arguments are useless when in the realm of politics or articles of faith.  And, reactions (like almost all of the messages posted on this thread) are so easy to predict that it's become laughable.  Thanks to Packer for the original link to him.

 

He may have some really clever thoughts. I read through his blog a bit. But he says Trump has 98% chance of winning. That pretty much got me to stop reading his stuff, not because he seems to be pro-Trump but because I really question his judgement. Am i reading it wrong?

 

 

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Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) has offered his thoughts, via his blog, Twitter and Periscope, on the elections, and they have been prescient.  For anyone that enjoys watching and talking about the political races, he is a great mind to learn from.  His knowledge of persuasion is top notch.

I agree.  Scott Adams is profoundly brilliant.  He has completely transformed my thinking on how people make political decisions.  I now understand why facts & rational arguments are useless when in the realm of politics or articles of faith.  And, reactions (like almost all of the messages posted on this thread) are so easy to predict that it's become laughable.  Thanks to Packer for the original link to him.

 

He may have some really clever thoughts. I read through his blog a bit. But he says Trump has 98% chance of winning. That pretty much got me to stop reading his stuff, not because he seems to be pro-Trump but because I really question his judgement. Am i reading it wrong?

 

If he is wrong about the election it will be another addition to his long list of failures including careers in banking, telecom, a computer game maker, restaurant owner, and app designer.  He also believes there is a high probability that we are all living in a computer simulation.  A normal reaction would be to ignore him as a loser and a crackpot (like some on the thread have already done).

 

But anyone doing so would miss a chance to learn some serious life lessons that he has to offer from those very failures.  His main approach to life is try, fail, learn, repeat.  But he is far from a failure.  He is a fabulously wealthy, a best-selling author, a highly-paid speaker, a cartoonist who is syndicated in 2000 newspapers in 65 countries, a trained hypnotist, a student of persuasion, and dates a girl who looks like a super model (to some).

 

A lot of attention is paid to people who have made quick riches like Elizabeth Holmes, Michael Burry, and others who have "cracked" the secret to success.  Of course, people what replicate that very success.  But what practice knowledge can one really expect to learn from these right-place-at-the-right-time people?  IMO, not much.  I pickup much more useful knowledge from rare people like Scott Adams who not only have failed time & again, but possess the talent for simplifying lessons and writing in an easy-to-read style.

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But while we’re in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to … actually, there’s no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, you’d have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnson’s 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

 

Who knew? If you treat a group like crap, they probably won't support you.

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Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) has offered his thoughts, via his blog, Twitter and Periscope, on the elections, and they have been prescient.  For anyone that enjoys watching and talking about the political races, he is a great mind to learn from.  His knowledge of persuasion is top notch.

I agree.  Scott Adams is profoundly brilliant.  He has completely transformed my thinking on how people make political decisions.  I now understand why facts & rational arguments are useless when in the realm of politics or articles of faith.  And, reactions (like almost all of the messages posted on this thread) are so easy to predict that it's become laughable.  Thanks to Packer for the original link to him.

 

He may have some really clever thoughts. I read through his blog a bit. But he says Trump has 98% chance of winning. That pretty much got me to stop reading his stuff, not because he seems to be pro-Trump but because I really question his judgement. Am i reading it wrong?

 

If he is wrong about the election it will be another addition to his long list of failures including careers in banking, telecom, a computer game maker, restaurant owner, and app designer.  He also believes there is a high probability that we are all living in a computer simulation.  A normal reaction would be to ignore him as a loser and a crackpot (like some on the thread have already done).

 

But anyone doing so would miss a chance to learn some serious life lessons that he has to offer from those very failures.  His main approach to life is try, fail, learn, repeat.  But he is far from a failure.  He is a fabulously wealthy, a best-selling author, a highly-paid speaker, a cartoonist who is syndicated in 2000 newspapers in 65 countries, a trained hypnotist, a student of persuasion, and dates a girl who looks like a super model (to some).

 

A lot of attention is paid to people who have made quick riches like Elizabeth Holmes, Michael Burry, and others who have "cracked" the secret to success.  Of course, people what replicate that very success.  But what practice knowledge can one really expect to learn from these right-place-at-the-right-time people?  IMO, not much.  I pickup much more useful knowledge from rare people like Scott Adams who not only have failed time & again, but possess the talent for simplifying lessons and writing in an easy-to-read style.

 

I don't have the time at the moment to reply to everything you said, but I'd be shocked if we were not living in some type of simulation. The chances that we are in base reality are so small to be almost nonexistent.

 

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Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) has offered his thoughts, via his blog, Twitter and Periscope, on the elections, and they have been prescient.  For anyone that enjoys watching and talking about the political races, he is a great mind to learn from.  His knowledge of persuasion is top notch.

I agree.  Scott Adams is profoundly brilliant.  He has completely transformed my thinking on how people make political decisions.  I now understand why facts & rational arguments are useless when in the realm of politics or articles of faith.  And, reactions (like almost all of the messages posted on this thread) are so easy to predict that it's become laughable.  Thanks to Packer for the original link to him.

 

He may have some really clever thoughts. I read through his blog a bit. But he says Trump has 98% chance of winning. That pretty much got me to stop reading his stuff, not because he seems to be pro-Trump but because I really question his judgement. Am i reading it wrong?

 

If he is wrong about the election it will be another addition to his long list of failures including careers in banking, telecom, a computer game maker, restaurant owner, and app designer.  He also believes there is a high probability that we are all living in a computer simulation.  A normal reaction would be to ignore him as a loser and a crackpot (like some on the thread have already done).

 

But anyone doing so would miss a chance to learn some serious life lessons that he has to offer from those very failures.  His main approach to life is try, fail, learn, repeat.  But he is far from a failure.  He is a fabulously wealthy, a best-selling author, a highly-paid speaker, a cartoonist who is syndicated in 2000 newspapers in 65 countries, a trained hypnotist, a student of persuasion, and dates a girl who looks like a super model (to some).

 

A lot of attention is paid to people who have made quick riches like Elizabeth Holmes, Michael Burry, and others who have "cracked" the secret to success.  Of course, people what replicate that very success.  But what practice knowledge can one really expect to learn from these right-place-at-the-right-time people?  IMO, not much.  I pickup much more useful knowledge from rare people like Scott Adams who not only have failed time & again, but possess the talent for simplifying lessons and writing in an easy-to-read style.

 

I don't have the time at the moment to reply to everything you said, but I'd be shocked if we were not living in some type of simulation. The chances that we are in base reality are so small to be almost nonexistent.

 

 

Certainly a "blow your mind" thought experiment.  Puts some of life's quantum mysteries into place. Deserves it's own thread.

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The mistake here is the belief that facts matter.

 

They certainly don't matter to Trump. In 40 minutes of speaking time, he made 33 false statements

 

And how many minds will this change?  Answer: Zero

 

How about your mind? Do facts matter to you?

 

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/10/10/fact-check-donald-trump-made-33-false-claims-at-second-debate.html

 

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The mistake here is the belief that facts matter.

 

They certainly don't matter to Trump. In 40 minutes of speaking time, he made 33 false statements

 

And how many minds will this change?  Answer: Zero

 

How about your mind? Do facts matter to you?

 

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/10/10/fact-check-donald-trump-made-33-false-claims-at-second-debate.html

 

You're going to drive yourself crazy thinking you can change anyone's political support with facts & reason.  When was the last time you sat down and carefully went through a long, anti-Hillary feature article from a conservative website or Fox News?  A long while, if ever.  I bet you are more likely to skip the article and go right to the comment section looking for confirmation of how bad the article is.  You're not alone.  It's equally true for Trump supporters like me as well. 

 

That's my point, humans aren't rational.  It's a harmful-to-your-health mistake to think we are.  If humans were rational, we'd all agree on a single religion, and we would only need one person in a jury box instead of twelve.

 

We all make articles-of-faith decisions on topics like religion & politics based on emotion & deeply-held views of the world learned early in life.  Then we (1) seek confirming evidence to support our decision, and (2) ignore/rationalize all conflicting evidence.  Because facts don't inform our choices, the introduction of new ones won't change our choices.

 

The upside of understanding this a lowering of anxiety and an increase in quality of life.  I wish I would have learned it decades ago.  I no longer look at friends, family, and other intelligent people condescendingly because they won't be persuaded by my reasoned arguments. 

 

Of all the ways to effectively persuade others in politics, facts & reason are at the bottom.

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Trump bragging about walking in on naked 15-year-olds in changing rooms at his pageant, said he could get away with it:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/10/12/former-miss-arizona-trump-just-came-strolling-right-in-on-naked-contestants/

 

What a creep.

The man is a bottomless pit of yuck. Of course the family values republicans have no problem to continue to support him.

 

I wonder where is the breaking point. Does he have to walk on the stage at the 3rd debate take his dick out and start plucking it? Even then, they'll probably go like "well that was disgusting but we still support him because he'll appoint conservative judges" or something like that. Principled conservatives my ass!

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You're going to drive yourself crazy thinking you can change anyone's political support with facts & reason.

 

I agree with you that facts and reason are unlikely to change the minds of many or even most people. That doesn't mean we shouldn't aspire to something better. That's why I asked if facts matter to you. I'll give up asking if you prefer not to answer.

 

By the way, I have read some of the articles Trump supporters have posted to CoBF. The ones that didn't turn out to be conspiracy sites turned out to contradict the point the Trump supporter was trying to make. If you have a link to an article you'd care to post, I promise to give it a read.

 

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The man is a bottomless pit of yuck. Of course the family values republicans have no problem to continue to support him.

 

I wonder where is the breaking point.

 

This, maybe?

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-unearthed-footage-trump-says-of-10-year-old-i-am-going-to-be-dating-her-in-10-years/

 

In an “Entertainment Tonight” Christmas feature in 1992, Trump looked at a group of 10-year-old girls and said he would be dating one of them in ten years. At the time, Trump would have been 46 years old.

 

The video, released Wednesday evening, was shot at Trump Tower.

 

In the clip, Trump asks one of the 10-year-old girls if she’s “going up the escalator.” When the girl replies, “yeah,” Trump turns to the camera and says: “I am going to be dating her in 10 years. Can you believe it?”

 

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Yea, both the NYT story and the escalator tape fall deep into the yuck pit. i don't think that's gonna move evangelicals or his die hard fans.

 

On the other hand, in response to the Times story Trump threatens to sue the newspaper (what's new?) and triples down on dredging up all the 90s bill clinton stuff.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-12/trump-takes-a-back-to-the-future-focus-on-bill-clinton-s-women

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It's getting hard to keep track of all the horrible things...

 

"Trump has never apologized for calling for our murder."

Read this, from one of the Central Park 5

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/10/12/im-one-of-the-central-park-five-donald-trump-wont-leave-me-alone/

 

And: http://people.com/politics/donald-trump-attacked-people-writer/

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I wouldn't trade places with Kellyanne Conway right now for all the scotch in Scotland.

 

Also I may be speaking too soon of course, but am I the only one who thinks that it's a cruel irony that Hillary Clinton's presidential win gets cemented by a sex scandal? If Shakespeare were alive today he'd write something brilliant about this.

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