Brexit

[mranski]

I think long term Britain will do fine economically if they leave the E.U. As long as they aren’t restricted from negotiating international trade deals.

[John Hjorth]

The situation around British Steel has been actively covered in the Danish Press yesterday and the day before. It reads bad - I saw mentioned 4,500 jobs directly on the line, & estimated 45,000 affected in the whole supply chain below it. It reads like perhaps more than a tiny shock wave in UK businesses potentially spreading, if the situation gets totally out of control.

 

What I read was that British Steel was now basically hit from every angle of effects of the Brexit situation.

 

Personally, I don't care about the PE firm owning it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Personally, I appreciate all our active UK CoBF members. I specifically remember, that Dynamic some time ago wrote "... I'm still European, at least for next few weeks ..." or something similar. No matter what happens related to Brexit for you here on CoBF living in the UK, you'll always be European to me!

 

Also, here's a tip, that you may be free to pass on to the appropriate and relevant person related to British Steel : Please give oligarc & steel tycoon Vladimir Lisin a call about British Steel. To me, he appears to have some weird attraction to loss generating steel production plants - at least he has now owned such a Danish black hole for many years, that is doing nothing but sucking in his money - pretty consistently over the years.

 

And yes, I have thought about what is actually going on inside that particular Danish black hole... [ ; - ) ]

[SharperDingaan]

We've just let our Gilts mature, and let the money sit in an ordinary savings account.

The biggest hassle is putting up with the bank calling every 2-weeks, with offers to help us 'invest' it.

 

Hard to see how the UK economy does not take at least a few very hard hits around this fiasco,

We expect that as the tide goes out, there will be some spectacular failures; significantly depressing multiples accross the board.

Once there is a hard outcome, it'll be shopping time. 

 

Whatever the new regime; people still have to eat/drink, and use utilities (electric, gas, water, sewage, etc)

If you can ultimately buy at 25-35% off, it's pretty low risk.

In the meantime, tune out the drama.

 

SD

 

 

[petec]

We've just let our Gilts mature, and let the money sit in an ordinary savings account.

The biggest hassle is putting up with the bank calling every 2-weeks, with offers to help us 'invest' it.

 

Hard to see how the UK economy does not take at least a few very hard hits around this fiasco,

We expect that as the tide goes out, there will be some spectacular failures; significantly depressing multiples accross the board.

Once there is a hard outcome, it'll be shopping time. 

 

Whatever the new regime; people still have to eat/drink, and use utilities (electric, gas, water, sewage, etc)

If you can ultimately buy at 25-35% off, it's pretty low risk.

In the meantime, tune out the drama.

 

SD

 

30% off would not tempt me if Corbyn looked likely to take power.

[SharperDingaan]

We've just let our Gilts mature, and let the money sit in an ordinary savings account.

The biggest hassle is putting up with the bank calling every 2-weeks, with offers to help us 'invest' it.

 

Hard to see how the UK economy does not take at least a few very hard hits around this fiasco,

We expect that as the tide goes out, there will be some spectacular failures; significantly depressing multiples accross the board.

Once there is a hard outcome, it'll be shopping time. 

 

Whatever the new regime; people still have to eat/drink, and use utilities (electric, gas, water, sewage, etc)

If you can ultimately buy at 25-35% off, it's pretty low risk.

In the meantime, tune out the drama.

 

SD

 

30% off would not tempt me if Corbyn looked likely to take power.

 

Doesn't do much for us either.

But if the utility currently paying a 9.75% cash yield, suffered a 35% price decline - we would suddenly be earning 15%; for life. And reducing the amount of capital we need to fund a UK retirement by 35%. If the pound also devalued, we'd have some other opportunities as well.

 

It's essentially a long straddle on Brexit uncertainty.

Crash out of the EU and we win, per the above. Stay in the EU and we also win, albeit not as much. Do nothing, and we eat non-cash opportunity cost.

 

SD

 

[petec]

Less good if he nationalises your utility after the price has dropped!

[John Hjorth]

Pete,

 

What is your personal [ and thereby subjective, naturally - no strings attached!] perception about the major UK banks for now?

[Spekulatius]

The French had Mitterand for 14 years, Britain will survive Corbin.  Mitterand actually had communist ministers in his government. got off a rocky start (and he did nationalize banks etc, but paid fair prices), but later the French stock market was one of the best performing ones in Europe as I recall.

 

Bought a bit BCS to get my toes wet yesterday. I am hoping for more volatility.

[wachtwoord]

France is the worst ruled European country. Venezuelan stocks will perform very well at some point as well on a short time frame. Direct consequence of hitting rock bottom, not of it being a good place to invest.

[petec]

Pete,

 

What is your personal [ and thereby subjective, naturally - no strings attached!] perception about the major UK banks for now?

 

As an investment, I don't have one, other than to say I'd rather have bank investment in emerging markets where growth is higher, penetration is lower, capital is higher, etc etc.

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, Pete.

[petec]

Britain will survive Corbin.

 

Yes, but who invests for survival? If he wins it will take bear market bottom multiples to tempt me, and only in sectors where he doesn't plan expropriations or interventions. The only good thing that can be said for Corbyn is his policies likely lead to elevated inflation so that Britain has a chance of emerging from the inevitable crisis with less debt.

 

Mind you British politics is fragmenting, and I think the process might accelerate. That may make it less likely that a Corbyn government wins power. The logical consequence of electing a man like Corbyn your leader in a centrist country is that the party gets marginalised. That takes time to play out but it may have started. The same may happen to the Tories if Johnson is the new leader. I wonder if we are heading for a three-bloc parliament:

1) BoJo Tories + Brexit Party (hard Brexit, economically right)

2) Lib Dems + Change UK (hard Remain, economically centrist)

3) Labour (confused on Brexit, nutjob left).

 

The biggest bloc could well be (1), but it probably won't have a majority. 2+3 would likely govern in coalition, but that dilutes Corbyn's idiocy.

 

Many commentators here are in despair. Personally I think it's fascinating and actually quite uplifting to watch a democracy reshaping itself as the will of its people shifts. It looks chaotic in close focus, but I think in time the big picture will look clearer. The big parties need to adapt or be replaced, and it will be interesting to see which happens.

 

[Spekulatius]

Britain will survive Corbin.

 

Yes, but who invests for survival? If he wins it will take bear market bottom multiples to tempt me, and only in sectors where he doesn't plan expropriations or interventions. The only good thing that can be said for Corbyn is his policies likely lead to elevated inflation so that Britain has a chance of emerging from the inevitable crisis with less debt.

 

Mind you British politics is fragmenting, and I think the process might accelerate. That may make it less likely that a Corbyn government wins power. The logical consequence of electing a man like Corbyn your leader in a centrist country is that the party gets marginalised. That takes time to play out but it may have started. The same may happen to the Tories if Johnson is the new leader. I wonder if we are heading for a three-bloc parliament:

1) BoJo Tories + Brexit Party (hard Brexit, economically right)

2) Lib Dems + Change UK (hard Remain, economically centrist)

3) Labour (confused on Brexit, nutjob left).

 

The biggest bloc could well be (1), but it probably won't have a majority. 2+3 would likely govern in coalition, but that dilutes Corbyn's idiocy.

 

Many commentators here are in despair. Personally I think it's fascinating and actually quite uplifting to watch a democracy reshaping itself as the will of its people shifts. It looks chaotic in close focus, but I think in time the big picture will look clearer. The big parties need to adapt or be replaced, and it will be interesting to see which happens.

 

Britain is welcome to nationalize BCS at book value. ;D. I don’t really understand what’s going on in Britain, but fragmentation is going on everywhere in Europe. In Germany for examples, the Green Party is now strong than the traditions large parties like SPD ( left leaning) or CDU (conservative) and instead of 3 parties there are now 5 or six to content with. This means that anything in politics  will be watered down by having multiple stakeholders and governments will become less stable and will be rearranged more often.

[Dynamic]

I agree that this is all very confusing. At the moment, fringe parties and independents are enjoying unusually large shares of votes in local council elections and European Parliament Elections, mainly on their Brexit stance and voting against the big two - Conservative and Labour.

 

I guess the chances of Brexit happening in some form are still probably hovering around 50% (+/-30%) - very hard to judge, especially from so close.

 

The biggest problem with the idea of Brexit is that everyone wants a different flavour or vision of a post-EU Britain for different reasons and some of these are completely incompatible with each other. CGP Grey's video about Brexit on YouTube demonstrates these incompatibilities very well.

 

Thus any deal or no-deal option presented to the people or to parliament will probably fail to please enough of the pro-Brexit people or parliamentarians to be approved. It may take someone riding roughshod over the competing factions to actually push it through.

 

The pro-Brexit parties cleverly refused to define precisely what they wanted, allowing people to conjure up whatever image of post-Brexit Britain they hoped for and vote for that. Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party even refused to provide any policies in advance of elections. They know that they get a free pass to whatever each member of their potential voters imagines the perfect Brexit to be.

 

With Remain you know what you're getting, and enough people had enough gripes with that to turn out and vote against it in the original Referendum.

Then again, more voters signed the petition or a second referendum than voted for the Brexit parties in the recent EU elections, and pro-Remain parties got more votes (albeit split among many parties, which is OK given that those elections have a relatively proportional representation) yet the Brexit Party had the highest single proportion of votes for any party.

 

So even the voting picture is unclear. The only thing that is clear is that of those who bother to vote, the nation is deeply divided, and the main political parties are tending to become more extreme in an attempt to manage infighting and internal factions, while become ever less appealing to centrist moderate voters.

 

The compassionate Conservatives or business-friendly New Labour of a decade or two ago seem very far removed from the current make-up of the parties. I'm sure their staunch supporters are happy to see the right wing and left wing more polarise further, but they don't offer much appeal to many voters without tribal affiliations who favour pragmatism, and I suspect that their best hope in the next General Election is low turn-out from the disaffected majority while their more tribal supporters turn out as always. Otherwise, alternative parties could certainly take a fair share of the vote, if not the seats, and yet another coalition will be required to form a government. I really think that a centrist, pragmatic leader of either main party could attract a lot of public support and votes, but that both major parties are unlikely to vote in such a leader as they pursue their internal agendas. It's also possible that the new media landscape will encourage such factionalisation and division.

[petec]

The biggest problem with the idea of Brexit is that everyone wants a different flavour or vision of a post-EU Britain for different reasons and some of these are completely incompatible with each other.

 

The other huge issue is that Brexit may be one of those situations where one of the extremes is better than a compromise - but because neither side has a majority, compromise is what we are likely to get.

 

The main political parties are tending to become more extreme in an attempt to manage infighting and internal factions, while become ever less appealing to centrist moderate voters.

 

Not that it matters but I don't think infighting is making them more extreme. I think it's because both have given the membership, rather than MPs, the power to choose the leader. By definition the membership is the most ideological/hardcore part of the support base, so you get leaders from the extremes. Infighting is the result of that, not the cause.

 

 

[Dynamic]

Not that it matters but I don't think infighting is making them more extreme. I think it's because both have given the membership, rather than MPs, the power to choose the leader. By definition the membership is the most ideological/hardcore part of the support base, so you get leaders from the extremes. Infighting is the result of that, not the cause.

 

This! Good point. They would rather have an idealogically pure party than have any dilution of their idealogy that would allow them to win a majority and actually implement some of their preferred policies.

 

It seems quite a odd contrast to some really good policy programmes such as the use of the Nudge Unit to test policies for their actual effects and try to use behavioural approaches to improve outcomes without removing citizen choice. Hopefully, those things often implemented with the help of the civil service will continue to make incremental improvements regardless of the chaotic party politics raging around them.

[Read the Footnotes]

Yet another blow for BoJo, Brexit, Putin, election meddlers, and others.

 

Letwin amendment passed. Boris Johnson required to ask EU for delay until January 2020. No deal Brexit prevented.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/mps-put-brakes-on-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-with-rebel-letwin-amendment

[Spekulatius]

Yet another blow for BoJo, Brexit, Putin, election meddlers, and others.

 

Letwin amendment passed. Boris Johnson required to ask EU for delay until January 2020. No deal Brexit prevented.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/mps-put-brakes-on-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-with-rebel-letwin-amendment

 

So is he now going to fall in a ditch and play dead?

https://twitter.com/time/status/1169694244111601666?s=21

[wachtwoord]

He'll call in sick for 2 weeks lol! Not more childish than labour has been behaving.

[John Hjorth]

Tweet by "The other Donald" [Donald Tusk] at 11:00 PM Saturday.

 

It seems like "BoJo" [<- [ : - D ]] is doing overtime on a Saturday to be able to call in sick on Monday, ref. wachtwoord! [i'm sorry, I couldn't help it here ... - The whole thing is actually starting to crack me up!]

[petec]

Yet another blow for BoJo, Brexit, Putin, election meddlers, and others.

 

Letwin amendment passed. Boris Johnson required to ask EU for delay until January 2020. No deal Brexit prevented.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/mps-put-brakes-on-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-with-rebel-letwin-amendment

 

Jesus wept. This is starting to drive me mad.

 

Not sure it is a blow for BoJo yet though. He is only rising in the polls and politics is now so fragmented that under our voting system he could get a majority with 35% of the vote. The opposition (Labouor, SNP, Tory rebels) claim their only goal is to ensure a no-deal Brexit can't happen. They already look silly because they said BoJo was a hardline no-dealer (which he never was) and that he couldn't get the EU to reopen the WA (which he did). Now they're proposing to sabotage his deal by amending it to include a confirmatory referendum, which doesn't seem to command a majority, or a customs union, which does despite the fact that nobody in their right mind would want it. As a result we are heading for a situation where Boris can say: I have got a reasonable deal, whcih involved compromises on both sides, and which Parliament has blocked for no good reason, so I want an election, which Labour are blocking because they'd lose. That is polling gold.

 

One thing I think we have to revisit is the fucking Fixed Term Parliament Act, which has had the unintended consequence of allowing the opposition to block an election for fear of being wiped out. But that is only one of the many mistakes that have led us to this. Theresa May agreeing to the EU's demand that the "divorce agreement" and the future relationship be negotiated in sequence, rather than in tandem, was the first and biggest.

[meiroy]

 

Brexit passes, BoJo rejoices, but then a plot twist: Corbyn wins the general elections and the UK is fucked even more than anyone thought possible. Brits immigrate to Poland to work in construction. Corbyn blames the evils of the west for this and sets Westminister on fire. Ireland's military takes over England. Brits are back in the Union. The End.

 

 

 

 

[petec]

 

Brexit passes, BoJo rejoices, but then a plot twist: Corbyn wins the general elections and the UK is fucked even more than anyone thought possible. Brits immigrate to Poland to work in construction. Corbyn blames the evils of the west for this and sets Westminister on fire. Ireland's military takes over England. Brits are back in the Union. The End.

 

:o :'(

[Read the Footnotes]

Yet another blow for BoJo, Brexit, Putin, election meddlers, and others.

 

Letwin amendment passed. Boris Johnson required to ask EU for delay until January 2020. No deal Brexit prevented.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/mps-put-brakes-on-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-with-rebel-letwin-amendment

 

I was thinking, but did not write, "but who knows what happens from here. The response will probably be non-traditional and unexpected". That would have been an insightful comment then and may remain an insightful comment for months to come. There's a lot of following the letter of the law, but not the spirit of the law. All sides can play the game, especially with a parliamentary system with such an emphasis on precedent and so many obscure precedents.

[Spekulatius]

The “ in between” situation seems to me much worse for the Brits than either to stay it go.