Driverless cars and auto insurance

[rkbabang]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

 

Time is a big factor.  While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere.  Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. 

 

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

[Ham Hockers]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

 

Time is a big factor.  While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere.  Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. 

 

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

My guess is that most of the time, there will still be a person in the truck. Need someone there to deal with breakdowns, accidents, thieves, etc.

[Jurgis]

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

My guess is that most of the time, there will still be a person in the truck. Need someone there to deal with breakdowns, accidents, thieves, etc.

 

There will be Terminator in the truck.

 

And when the truck stop attendant asks him if he's gonna return the same way, he'll say "I'll be back".

[Jurgis]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

Trains are more energy efficient than trucks (well, mostly, if you want a dissertation, read http://www.lafn.org/~dave/trans/energy/rail_vs_truckEE.html ).

 

The price gap would narrow though.

[rkbabang]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

Trains are more energy efficient than trucks (well, mostly, if you want a dissertation, read http://www.lafn.org/~dave/trans/energy/rail_vs_truckEE.html ).

 

The price gap would narrow though.

 

Yes, but a train can't likely backup to the loading dock at the grocery store near your house.  Even if trains were always more cost efficient for long distances, trains only get the goods so far.  So even with trains you still need robots to load the autonomous trucks for the final leg of the journey.

[ERICOPOLY]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

 

Time is a big factor.  While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere.  Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. 

 

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

I think you overcome that obstacle by paying somebody minimum wage to occupy the vehicle during the entire journey. 

 

His primary job is to swipe the credit card and put the nozzle in the gas tank when refueling mid-route.  His secondary job is to be with the vehicle so that it doesn't get robbed.

 

Sounds less complicated than clerking at 7-11.  So it's minimum wage.  No need for commercial vehicle drivers license.

 

[rkbabang]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

 

Time is a big factor.  While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere.  Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. 

 

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

I think you overcome that obstacle by paying somebody minimum wage to occupy the vehicle during the entire journey. 

 

His primary job is to swipe the credit card and put the nozzle in the gas tank when refueling mid-route.  His secondary job is to be with the vehicle so that it doesn't get robbed.

 

Sounds less complicated than clerking at 7-11.  So it's minimum wage.  No need for commercial vehicle drivers license.

 

 

I doubt that is the long term solution.  Truck stops will likely accommodate robotic trucks with some type of easy pay system and more minimum wage staff to pump gas.  Afterall there are less refueling stations than there are tucks, this would be many times fewer people.  Also removing humans from the tuck entirely releases the design constraints having a passenger cab puts on truck design.  Trucks can be designed without cabs, mirrors, etc.  The engine can be put in its best position for stability and fuel economy. The same with the design/shape of the exterior of the truck.  Just not having huge mirrors on the outside will save fuel.  Putting a person in the truck defeats many of the gains of having an autonomous truck.

 

As far as not getting robbed, I'm sure there are solutions to fortify the cargo area against that short of robotic machine gun turrets.  And besides the truck will be moving most of the time.

 

 

[Ham Hockers]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

 

Time is a big factor.  While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere.  Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. 

 

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

I think you overcome that obstacle by paying somebody minimum wage to occupy the vehicle during the entire journey. 

 

His primary job is to swipe the credit card and put the nozzle in the gas tank when refueling mid-route.  His secondary job is to be with the vehicle so that it doesn't get robbed.

 

Sounds less complicated than clerking at 7-11.  So it's minimum wage.  No need for commercial vehicle drivers license.

 

I'm not so sure about that. You need the person in the car to have the ability to drive the truck, if needed. Trucks might end up like planes, where the bulk of the flying is done automatically, but humans still occasionally take control for a variety of reasons.

[ERICOPOLY]

How much of the cost of trucking is the cost of the truck driver himself?  Drivers need to stop to eat, rest, or perhaps sleep for example.  He also needs to be paid.

 

Would driverless trucking put pressure on rail traffic, or are railroads still much more efficient?

 

 

Time is a big factor.  While the driver is sleeping, eating, going to the bathroom, etc. The merchandise is sitting in the truck not going anywhere.  Shipping would be quicker if done by robot vehicles. 

 

One obstacle I see is that you would need full service at truck stops and some way to guarantee payment, because there is no longer a driver to get out, swipe a credit card, and put the nozzle in the tank.

 

I think you overcome that obstacle by paying somebody minimum wage to occupy the vehicle during the entire journey. 

 

His primary job is to swipe the credit card and put the nozzle in the gas tank when refueling mid-route.  His secondary job is to be with the vehicle so that it doesn't get robbed.

 

Sounds less complicated than clerking at 7-11.  So it's minimum wage.  No need for commercial vehicle drivers license.

 

 

I doubt that is the long term solution.  Truck stops will likely accommodate robotic trucks with some type of easy pay system and more minimum wage staff to pump gas.  Afterall there are less refueling stations than there are tucks, this would be many times fewer people.  Also removing humans from the tuck entirely releases the design constraints having a passenger cab puts on truck design.  Trucks can be designed without cabs, mirrors, etc.  The engine can be put in its best position for stability and fuel economy. The same with the design/shape of the exterior of the truck.  Just not having huge mirrors on the outside will save fuel.  Putting a person in the truck defeats many of the gains of having an autonomous truck.

 

True about the streamlining/aerodynamics, but the person doesn't have to sit in the front of the truck nor does he need mirrors if he isn't driving.

 

Could be a rear-facing seat at the tail of the vehicle (although that doesn't fit with the existing design of trucks and perhaps isn't workable).

 

I think you could keep the man riding upfront but occupying a center seat so that the nose could be more streamlined.  Just a guess though.

 

Eliminating the person entirely is more optimal still.

[Pelagic]

If driverless trucking becomes a thing (I think it will eventually) we'll likely see a network of service stations that trucking companies pay to care for their trucks while they transit each stations region. So if the truck breaks down or needs gas, the station for that region provides the maintenance if required. That way you have a small human workforce servicing all the trucks passing through their area, most are probably fine to just keep on going but if one needs anything, they're there to take care of it.

 

On the security discussion, what makes you think truck drivers today are so keen to defend their cargo. I don't think they get paid enough for that and the carrier has insurance for that occurrence. A self-driving truck should have minimal down time while on the road so security is even less of an issue since looting a semi doing 70 on the highway is the stuff of Fast and Furious movies.

[ERICOPOLY]

Perhaps at 70 MPH it docks directly with a driverless refueling tanker truck and therefore we don't necessarily need a refueling station  ;D

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

Perhaps at 70 MPH it docks directly with a driverless refueling tanker truck and therefore we don't necessarily need a refueling station  ;D

 

No, no no, it would be too difficult to go from truck to truck that way if it were on wheels. The autonomous refueling drone aircraft hovers above it matching its speed, attaches to it, and refuels it on the highway.  Then moves on to the next truck.

 

[Pelagic]

Perhaps at 70 MPH it docks directly with a driverless refueling tanker truck and therefore we don't necessarily need a refueling station  ;D

 

No, no no, it would be too difficult to go from truck to truck that way if it were on wheels. The autonomous refueling drone aircraft hovers above it matching its speed, attaches to it, and refuels it on the highway.  Then moves on to the next truck.

 

The road will be covered in solar panels with wireless charging stations imbedded in it at intervals which the truck will pass over keeping its battery charged without ever needing to slow down. It will be like hitting a power-up in Mario Kart.

[rkbabang]

Perhaps at 70 MPH it docks directly with a driverless refueling tanker truck and therefore we don't necessarily need a refueling station  ;D

 

No, no no, it would be too difficult to go from truck to truck that way if it were on wheels. The autonomous refueling drone aircraft hovers above it matching its speed, attaches to it, and refuels it on the highway.  Then moves on to the next truck.

 

The road will be covered in solar panels with wireless charging stations imbedded in it at intervals which the truck will pass over keeping its battery charged without ever needing to slow down. It will be like hitting a power-up in Mario Kart.

 

That's even better.  Maybe the air will be filled with quadrillions nano-mites that power themselves from CO2 in the atmosphere and busy themselves breaking water molecules in the air up into H and O2  then carrying the H molecule by molecule to the fuel cells of every vehicle on the road.  This might not work in dry climates without enough humidity to supply the necessary fuel though.

 

[rkbabang]

Volvo: We’ll take the blame if our self-driving cars crash

 

"Volvo says “blame us” if any of its self-driving cars crashes when it’s in autonomous mode. The company hopes the assumption of liability takes away one concern of the public and spurs the development and adoption of self-driving cars. Volvo says self-driving cars will be here sooner than many believe..."

[rkbabang]

Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but as I said earlier in this thread not only will self driving cars replace human driven ones, but self driving cars are only a stop gap measure to the real future of transportation:  Autonomous flying drones.  Why even have roads?  The need to build and maintain millions (billions?) of miles of asphalt roadways seems awfully inefficient to me when you have so much sky overhead.

 

Passenger drone taxi cleared for take-off in US trials

 

Welcome to Larry Page’s Secret Flying-Car Factories

 

[eclecticvalue]

Can't wait for that future. I was thinking flying cars will save the insurance industry. If you think about the risks.

[Jurgis]

Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but as I said earlier in this thread not only will self driving cars replace human driven ones, but self driving cars are only a stop gap measure to the real future of transportation:  Autonomous flying drones.  Why even have roads?  The need to build and maintain millions (billions?) of miles of asphalt roadways seems awfully inefficient to me when you have so much sky overhead.

 

Passenger drone taxi cleared for take-off in US trials

 

Welcome to Larry Page’s Secret Flying-Car Factories

 

Isn't flying hugely energy-inefficient? Even after accounting for road-building-maintenance costs?

 

Unless you expect the cost of energy to drop to marginal zero based on cheap fusion/whatever.

 

At current technology, my friends who drive and fly pretty much say that flying-cars are bad cars and bad planes combined into a bad hybrid. But sure I'm all for spending money on flying car R&D. Better than spending it on 140 characters. ;)

[rkbabang]

Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but as I said earlier in this thread not only will self driving cars replace human driven ones, but self driving cars are only a stop gap measure to the real future of transportation:  Autonomous flying drones.  Why even have roads?  The need to build and maintain millions (billions?) of miles of asphalt roadways seems awfully inefficient to me when you have so much sky overhead.

 

Passenger drone taxi cleared for take-off in US trials

 

Welcome to Larry Page’s Secret Flying-Car Factories

 

Isn't flying hugely energy-inefficient? Even after accounting for road-building-maintenance costs?

 

Unless you expect the cost of energy to drop to marginal zero based on cheap fusion/whatever.

 

At current technology, my friends who drive and fly pretty much say that flying-cars are bad cars and bad planes combined into a bad hybrid. But sure I'm all for spending money on flying car R&D. Better than spending it on 140 characters. ;)

 

For your first point about efficiency, I wonder if you factor in lost time spent going over land vs flying on top of the road-building/maintenance costs/labor if flying wouldn't be superior. 

 

Your second point is undoubtedly true, but only if you have to meet government regulations for both airplanes and automobiles.  Certainly none of those regulations make any sense at all factoring in vertical landing, hover capable, autonomous drones which will be far safer in the air than the planes the current regulations have been created for and they will never be driven on the land, so they aren't really cars at all.  If you have to make some kind of transformer which starts out as a plane that needs a runway to get from airport to airport then converts itself to an automobile which drives on the roads and highways, I don't think that will ever be feasible, cost effective, nor desirable.  But if you could summon a drone which would land in your yard, on your driveway (which could really be more like a small helipad not necessarily connecting to a road), or on top of your building, and bring you to your location safely through the air, that would be more efficient, quicker and safer.  Certainly the technology exists to create the crafts today, the AI flying algorithms probably don't, but could exist in the near future.

 

[Jurgis]

Lost-time is difficult to quantify without knowing what would be saved by going via air and relative speeds/etc.

 

Regarding VTOL autonomous "they will never be driven on the land" - this would be future ideal case. However, most of the current flying car startups are car-plane hybrids that have to drive, have to have runways. A few are trying VTOL, but AFAIK they are farther away from working prototypes and commercialization. Still good luck to them. :)

 

 

It would be great if we also had VTOL for long range travel. I think a lot of crappiness with air travel is due to airport congestion, which is mostly due to the runway planning (although I might be wrong - just heard it somewhere). But VTOL for long range is not really even in the works AFAIK. Huge lead times, huge regulations (though possibly justified) and not clear if there's demand, especially since past military VTOLs crashed a lot.

[Travis Wiedower]

Can't wait for that future. I was thinking flying cars will save the insurance industry. If you think about the risks.

 

Won't flying cars only take off (pun intended) if they are significantly safer than the current options? Same as self-driving cars. If flying cars are just as dangerous as current cars I doubt they ever get off the ground (ok, I'm done). I think the auto insurance industry is heading for a cliff they probably can't avoid (besides branching out into other areas I guess).

[rkbabang]

Lost-time is difficult to quantify without knowing what would be saved by going via air and relative speeds/etc.

 

Regarding VTOL autonomous "they will never be driven on the land" - this would be future ideal case. However, most of the current flying car startups are car-plane hybrids that have to drive, have to have runways. A few are trying VTOL, but AFAIK they are farther away from working prototypes and commercialization. Still good luck to them. :)

 

 

It would be great if we also had VTOL for long range travel. I think a lot of crappiness with air travel is due to airport congestion, which is mostly due to the runway planning (although I might be wrong - just heard it somewhere). But VTOL for long range is not really even in the works AFAIK. Huge lead times, huge regulations (though possibly justified) and not clear if there's demand, especially since past military VTOLs crashed a lot.

 

I don't think you will ever see the type of flying car that most people picture (runway and pilots license needed to fly, highway/road capable on land).  These are two very different vehicles with very different requirements.  If someone does ever come up with a viable vehicle, it will be far to expensive to be anything but a curiosity.  It will be cheaper to own and operate a Cessna and a regular car.  Also it is unrealistic to think many people will get their pilot's licenses to fly them.

 

Yes large VTOL's to carry hundreds of passengers long distances are much further down the road and I'm not sure having a runway requirement for long trips is that much of an inconvenience/expense to make it worth it. I'm talking about 2-4 people at a time with minimal cargo locally (30-60 minutes in the air).  A family car replacement (like uber in the sky) Not something to get you from NY to Beijing.  If you were going from NY to Orlando though and wanted to avoid the hassle of an airport, you could always summon a new drone every hour until you get there.  It would be quicker and easier than driving that distance is today.  You probably couldn't get across oceans without going to the airport though, just as you can't today.

 

 

[Dustin T]

How about a transportation system that merges rail and drones. The drones lift people or goods to the nearest high speed rail line, built conveniently on the now abandoned highway system. It lands on the train on a specially designed car which is moving at 150 mph and only stops for maintenance or off hours. It then rides until it either needs to hit the air to switch trains or it gets close enough to it's destination to just take the last leg on it's own. The rail network is greatly expanded and may consist of single cars traveling in lightly traveled areas. Trains don't really switch tracks so much as drones switch trains, usually at intersections where they are timed to pass through at the same time with a swarm of drones jumping from one train to the next.

 

Combines what both technologies are good at, cheapest form of overland transportation with drones providing service for the last mile or ten.

 

I'm already invested in Berkshire, I better get invested in Amazon before the world catches on;)

[rkbabang]

How about a transportation system that merges rail and drones. The drones lift people or goods to the nearest high speed rail line, built conveniently on the now abandoned interstate system. It lands on the train on a specially designed car which is moving at 150 mph It then rides until it either needs to hit the air to switch trains or it gets close enough to it's destination to just take the last leg on it's own. The rail network is greatly expanded and may consist of single cars traveling in lightly traveled areas. Trains don't really switch tracks so much as drones switch trains, usually at intersections where they are timed to pass through at the same time with a swarm of drones jumping from one train to the next.

 

Combines what both technologies are good at, cheapest form of overland transportation with drones providing service for the last mile or ten.

 

I'm already invested in Berkshire, I better get invested in Amazon before the world catches on;)

 

I kind of like the hyperloop tech for intercity traveling at much greater speed than 150mpg (600-700 mph) in evacuated tunnels and drones for intracity short distance travel.  This would leave airports for intercontinental travel only, at least until they put hyperloop tunnels under the oceans.

 

[Dustin T]

How about a transportation system that merges rail and drones. The drones lift people or goods to the nearest high speed rail line, built conveniently on the now abandoned interstate system. It lands on the train on a specially designed car which is moving at 150 mph It then rides until it either needs to hit the air to switch trains or it gets close enough to it's destination to just take the last leg on it's own. The rail network is greatly expanded and may consist of single cars traveling in lightly traveled areas. Trains don't really switch tracks so much as drones switch trains, usually at intersections where they are timed to pass through at the same time with a swarm of drones jumping from one train to the next.

 

Combines what both technologies are good at, cheapest form of overland transportation with drones providing service for the last mile or ten.

 

I'm already invested in Berkshire, I better get invested in Amazon before the world catches on;)

 

I kind of like the hyperloop tech for intercity traveling at much greater speed than 150mpg (600-700 mph) in evacuated tunnels and drones for intracity short distance travel.  This would leave airports for intercontinental travel only, at least until they put hyperloop tunnels under the oceans.

 

I was pretty sure I'd get a hyperloop reply, which I think will be awesome technology if they can figure out the little things like how to actually build a viable working model. I'm not sure whether it would be lower cost than rail, it would seem to be a faster more expensive way to travel. Well worth it over longer or heavily traffic distances. I don't see it totally replacing rail for many things like transporting high volume low cost goods like coal or agricultural products or large/heavy equipment.

 

I was just having fun with my thought experiment mixing drones and fast moving trains, you've now expanded it to include uber-fast trains. I thank you for that.  The Hyperloop will now form the arteries of my transportation system, along with High speed rail as the vessels, and drones as the capillaries. You take the Hyperloop to go from LA to NY or maybe just from New York to New Jersey. You ride a drone from your house to hitch a ride on the high speed light rail to get to work.