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very strong el Nino perhaps?


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http://www.weatherwest.com/

 

Another indicator of increased confidence in the forecast for 2015 is the eyebrow-raising amplitude of El Niño projections being generated by a wide range of ocean-atmosphere models. Several of these–including (but not limited to) the CFS and ECMWF models–are suggesting the strong potential for Niño 3.4 region SSTs peaking more than +3 degrees C during the coming autumn/winter. For reference, the highest values ever recorded were around +2.5C, and occurred during the strongest El Niño events on record in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. In other words: a majority of the global atmosphere ocean models are currently suggesting the potential for an event rivaling the strongest event in the historical record.

 

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There was supposed to be a strong el Nino last year.  That got downgraded by NOAA, and actually, we really never got one at all.  There were barely any storms worth mentioning this year. 

 

I will just take the wait and see approach. 

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There was supposed to be a strong el Nino last year.  That got downgraded by NOAA, and actually, we really never got one at all.  There were barely any storms worth mentioning this year. 

 

I will just take the wait and see approach.

 

Yes, he mentioned something like that towards the end of the article:

 

It’s also true that model forecasts through the month of May are still being generated in the midst of the so-called Spring Predictability Barrier–the period during which long-lead ENSO forecasts remain challenging due to the chaotic nature of the ocean-atmosphere system. I will note, though, that forecasts from May are notably better than those made in March or April, and that the projected peak strength of the current El Niño event has been monotonically rising with each month’s forecast so far in 2015 (while in 2014 the opposite was occurring).

 

 

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