Elon Musk...human?

[Travis Wiedower]

In fact as we speak GM is ahead of Tesla in introducing a EV at less than $40k. Search for Chevy BOLT. One can order it and get it this fall.

 

And it looks like a smushed minivan. And yes, the big guys were doing electrics before Tesla, but I'd still argue what they were doing was mostly twiddling their thumbs. Tesla completely changed the world's opinion of what an electric vehicle could be. Tesla wasn't the first but they might as well have been.

[randomep]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

 

[Graham Osborn]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

The main benefits of driverless cars are cost (don't need to pay a driver), safety (lower error rate than human), and cloud control (efficient swarm management).  Progress toward these goals has already been achieved by ride-hailing services.  I think that car ownership WILL decline significantly in the future.  There's no reason for a vehicle to sit parked in a garage when it could be doing useful work.  Let's face it - if you could satisfy your transportation needs for $5-10 per day without owning a car, why would you own one?  In some cities people are already close to this, but the problem is if you want to take a road trip or drive to the airport you still need a car.  It's a bit like the US road system before the interstates were built - we don't have uniform service.  The cost of service is still too high for some Uber driver to be wandering out in rural Kentucky.  Once vehicles are driverless, the cost may well be low enough.

[randomep]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

The main benefits of driverless cars are cost (don't need to pay a driver), safety (lower error rate than human), and cloud control (efficient swarm management).  Progress toward these goals has already been achieved by ride-hailing services.  I think that car ownership WILL decline significantly in the future.  There's no reason for a vehicle to sit parked in a garage when it could be doing useful work.  Let's face it - if you could satisfy your transportation needs for $5-10 per day without owning a car, why would you own one?  In some cities people are already close to this, but the problem is if you want to take a road trip or drive to the airport you still need a car.  It's a bit like the US road system before the interstates were built - we don't have uniform service.  The cost of service is still too high for some Uber driver to be wandering out in rural Kentucky.  Once vehicles are driverless, the cost may well be low enough.

 

What you said doesn't jive with reality.  You asked a rhetorical question why people would want a car if transportation was cheap as if everyone's car decision was based on economics and utility.  But all around us people make car decisions based on vanity.  If everyone wanted to maximize utility we all be driving Prius, I mean what's the advantage of a Hummer or BMW or Lexus. And is that worth the double triple the cost of a Prius? 

 

Do a thought exercise, if there are a million little dinky driverless cars around and you could own your own luxury driverless car with your own bed, your own entertainment system would you want to use a seat with someone else gum stuck there. Or go to a first date in a shared car? In america our standard of living is very high, a household that has 3 cars today will find a rationale to own 3 driverless cars? right?  I just don't know how it will turn out but you make it sound like it is a foregone conclusion. 

 

To me intuitively, a car becomes so much more powerful and useful for very little increase in cost.  Why wouldn't we want more?

 

This topic of cars reminds me of the proliferation of smartphones. Who would have thunk that a hundred people would gather my local park addicted to their phones?  Who could have possibly thought of the Pokeman use case for smartphones and it is soooo popular when smartphones first came out 10yrs ago.  So how can we imagine what the uses of driverless cars can be!

 

 

[rkbabang]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

I disagree with both of you.  Do you have teenage children?  My kids don't even want to drive, neither do any of their friends. My son just got his license and I practically had to force him to get it.  Yes in 10 years there will still be a bunch of old people driving their own cars (you and me included), but this will diminish every year as these people die off or get too old to drive.  30 years from now there will be almost no human drivers on the road.  In 30 years anyone under 50 will look at a car with a steering wheel the way millennials look at CD Walkmans today. "What the hell is that for?".

 

 

[rkbabang]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

The main benefits of driverless cars are cost (don't need to pay a driver), safety (lower error rate than human), and cloud control (efficient swarm management).  Progress toward these goals has already been achieved by ride-hailing services.  I think that car ownership WILL decline significantly in the future.  There's no reason for a vehicle to sit parked in a garage when it could be doing useful work.  Let's face it - if you could satisfy your transportation needs for $5-10 per day without owning a car, why would you own one?  In some cities people are already close to this, but the problem is if you want to take a road trip or drive to the airport you still need a car.  It's a bit like the US road system before the interstates were built - we don't have uniform service.  The cost of service is still too high for some Uber driver to be wandering out in rural Kentucky.  Once vehicles are driverless, the cost may well be low enough.

 

Exactly.  The AI prediction algorithms are going to know your schedule better than you do.  90% of the time when you go to call a car (however that is done, smart phones or some wearable or glasses, etc) you are going to look out your window to see it already waiting for you.

 

As far as luxury, I'm sure there will be different classes of car services.  The rich riding in the back seat of a fancy car (or carriage) and leaving the driving to someone else is not exactly unprecedented in human history.

 

[Graham Osborn]

As far as luxury, I'm sure there will be different classes of car services.  The rich riding in the back seat of a fancy car (or carriage) and leaving the driving to someone else is not exactly unprecedented in human history.

 

Lol.  That's going to be my problem.  I get carsick unless I'm in the front seat.  Unless they develop some technology to eliminate inertia, I am never going to be productive in the car - driver or not ;)

[rkbabang]

As far as luxury, I'm sure there will be different classes of car services.  The rich riding in the back seat of a fancy car (or carriage) and leaving the driving to someone else is not exactly unprecedented in human history.

 

Lol.  That's going to be my problem.  I get carsick unless I'm in the front seat.  Unless they develop some technology to eliminate inertia, I am never going to be productive in the car - driver or not ;)

 

You can request the car with the phony steering wheel in the front so that you can pretend you're driving.  :)

 

I know someone who has control issues and won't ride in any vehicle that he isn't driving.  He refuses to go on planes, busses, boats (unless he's driving), cars (unless he's driving), or trains.  I wonder how he'll feel about driverless cars, I'll have to ask him sometime.

 

[TedKord]

Elon Musk's Worst. Week. Ever.

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/1/nasa-explosion-rocks-spacex-launch-site-in-florida/

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-faces-cash-squeeze-at-tesla-solarcity-1472687133

[Picasso]

I'm fairly certain losing his child was 1000x worse and 2008 was at least 100x as bad as this week.

[Travis Wiedower]

Yeah that seems like quite an exaggeration. A test launch failing and the Tesla/SolarCity merger not going perfectly is probably a below average week in his world. Nothing more.

[TedKord]

Okay, not comparable.

[randomep]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

I disagree with both of you.  Do you have teenage children?  My kids don't even want to drive, neither do any of their friends. My son just got his license and I practically had to force him to get it.  Yes in 10 years there will still be a bunch of old people driving their own cars (you and me included), but this will diminish every year as these people die off or get too old to drive.  30 years from now there will be almost no human drivers on the road.  In 30 years anyone under 50 will look at a car with a steering wheel the way millennials look at CD Walkmans today. "What the hell is that for?".

 

bang,

 

did you read my post carefully? I told you I am w/o a car! I am not like you and I won't be driving when I am old, I am not even driving now!

 

I bet I hate driving as much as your son, or even worse. But driving is an orthogonal issue to ownership. I hate driving but I love being a passenger. I have a GF who drives me everyday but that may change, a driverless car is like having a woman driving me around w/o the issues and the mood swings! 

 

I ride a bike, take the train and get a ride to work everyday. If I took uber how will that work? Will all ride sharing cars be able to support my bike? It is so much better to have my own driverless car, with a dedicated compartment in the back for my bike.

 

 

 

 

[oddballstocks]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

I disagree with both of you.  Do you have teenage children?  My kids don't even want to drive, neither do any of their friends. My son just got his license and I practically had to force him to get it.  Yes in 10 years there will still be a bunch of old people driving their own cars (you and me included), but this will diminish every year as these people die off or get too old to drive.  30 years from now there will be almost no human drivers on the road.  In 30 years anyone under 50 will look at a car with a steering wheel the way millennials look at CD Walkmans today. "What the hell is that for?".

 

bang,

 

did you read my post carefully? I told you I am w/o a car! I am not like you and I won't be driving when I am old, I am not even driving now!

 

I bet I hate driving as much as your son, or even worse. But driving is an orthogonal issue to ownership. I hate driving but I love being a passenger. I have a GF who drives me everyday but that may change, a driverless car is like having a woman driving me around w/o the issues and the mood swings! 

 

I ride a bike, take the train and get a ride to work everyday. If I took uber how will that work? Will all ride sharing cars be able to support my bike? It is so much better to have my own driverless car, with a dedicated compartment in the back for my bike.

 

How do you get to your in-laws who live five hours away?  Or your parents who live 2.5 hours away?  In both cases there are zero trains, and a flight for a family of five is well into the thousands verses a $50 tank of gas.  And it takes as long or longer with security.

 

I don't drive much, but I do have a truck.  I have a late model Tacoma that allows me to run errands as needed, and also haul things as needed.  It was not very expensive so I'm alright with it mostly sitting idle.

 

My wife drives a lot, with kids it's unavoidable.  We walk them to school, but it would be impossible for them to ride a bike to soccer practice.  The terrain is very hilly here, and it's a 20m car drive, maybe 45m-1hr for an adult to bike, almost impossible for a kid..

 

If we lived in NYC or SF or Toronto like most do on here and all family lived in a big city as well I can see how going carless is easy.  You take the train, or you fly.  Or maybe on the rare chance you venture outside of an urban area you Uber.  In fly-over-land (Western Pennsylvania) there isn't the infrastructure to support this.  There are trains and some busses, but they're only for commuting.

 

I have no idea if my kids will want to drive.  They're too small.  One of them loves jeeps and off-roading vehicles, maybe he'll have a mud slinging truck.

 

Maybe I'll be a dinosaur driving, who knows, I accept it.  I just wonder how where we live would support all of these extra cars.  Think of the traffic jams leaving a high school football game.  You'd have a jam of cars trying to get there at the same time, then all leave to go pick other people up, then all come back at the same time and leave again.  Where we're at it isn't nice four lane roads with turning lanes.  It's twisty little hilly streets that can't be widened. 

 

I think the AV car revolution will hit the coastal urban areas first then take another 15-20 years to trickle throughout the rest of the country.  It's probably better that way, traffic is an issue in Manhattan, it's not an issue in Paducah, KY.

[rkbabang]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

I disagree with both of you.  Do you have teenage children?  My kids don't even want to drive, neither do any of their friends. My son just got his license and I practically had to force him to get it.  Yes in 10 years there will still be a bunch of old people driving their own cars (you and me included), but this will diminish every year as these people die off or get too old to drive.  30 years from now there will be almost no human drivers on the road.  In 30 years anyone under 50 will look at a car with a steering wheel the way millennials look at CD Walkmans today. "What the hell is that for?".

 

bang,

 

did you read my post carefully? I told you I am w/o a car! I am not like you and I won't be driving when I am old, I am not even driving now!

 

I bet I hate driving as much as your son, or even worse. But driving is an orthogonal issue to ownership. I hate driving but I love being a passenger. I have a GF who drives me everyday but that may change, a driverless car is like having a woman driving me around w/o the issues and the mood swings! 

 

I ride a bike, take the train and get a ride to work everyday. If I took uber how will that work? Will all ride sharing cars be able to support my bike? It is so much better to have my own driverless car, with a dedicated compartment in the back for my bike.

 

 

I did somehow miss where you said you are a carless person.  At first many people might buy driverless cars, but it will be so much more expensive than using the car services companies that car ownership will fall drastically over time.  I'm sure there will be many different types of car services available.  If you want to share rides with strangers to reduce your costs further that will be available, if you'd rather ride alone directly to your destination that will be available as well.  And  and many different vehicles to pick from as well: from bare-bones to luxury; from one person with no storage; all the way up to big 100+ft long triple trailer semi.  If you want a one person vehicle with a bike rack, I'm sure that will be available when you need it. 

[rkbabang]

You could serve the needs of 30-40 people with the 3 vehicles that just serve my family.

 

Wha? How do you figure that?

 

Maybe if you distributed the demand across the entire day. But that's not an accurate way to look at it.  Most people need transportation at roughly the same time as most other people.  Commuting to work, commuting back from work are the two main times that come to mind.  How are you supposed to spread your 3 cars across 30-40 people for a morning commute?  Simply doesn't make sense.

 

Also, you're assuming that once autonomous cars hit mainstream, everyone will want to car-share. Huge assumption that I simply don't think will be the case. I think plenty of people will still want to own their own car.

 

I also think your longevity assumptions of 600k to 1mm miles are way out of whack.

 

I think your assumptions and the conclusion you've drawn are absolutely insane.

 

 

 

Ya I kinda echo your thoughts. Now I haven't read all of this thread, but where did this the rationale that we will want to own less cars come from?  Are you saying empty driverless cars will come pick up passengers?

 

I am a carless person. But I will buy a car if it is driverless and economical. So me as a datapoint says that cars will increase.  The fundemental change of driverless cars is it allows people to drive who cannot or don't want to drive.  So it will mean more cars on the road.  How can there be more cars on the road and less cars?

 

I disagree with both of you.  Do you have teenage children?  My kids don't even want to drive, neither do any of their friends. My son just got his license and I practically had to force him to get it.  Yes in 10 years there will still be a bunch of old people driving their own cars (you and me included), but this will diminish every year as these people die off or get too old to drive.  30 years from now there will be almost no human drivers on the road.  In 30 years anyone under 50 will look at a car with a steering wheel the way millennials look at CD Walkmans today. "What the hell is that for?".

 

bang,

 

did you read my post carefully? I told you I am w/o a car! I am not like you and I won't be driving when I am old, I am not even driving now!

 

I bet I hate driving as much as your son, or even worse. But driving is an orthogonal issue to ownership. I hate driving but I love being a passenger. I have a GF who drives me everyday but that may change, a driverless car is like having a woman driving me around w/o the issues and the mood swings! 

 

I ride a bike, take the train and get a ride to work everyday. If I took uber how will that work? Will all ride sharing cars be able to support my bike? It is so much better to have my own driverless car, with a dedicated compartment in the back for my bike.

 

How do you get to your in-laws who live five hours away?  Or your parents who live 2.5 hours away?  In both cases there are zero trains, and a flight for a family of five is well into the thousands verses a $50 tank of gas.  And it takes as long or longer with security.

 

I don't drive much, but I do have a truck.  I have a late model Tacoma that allows me to run errands as needed, and also haul things as needed.  It was not very expensive so I'm alright with it mostly sitting idle.

 

My wife drives a lot, with kids it's unavoidable.  We walk them to school, but it would be impossible for them to ride a bike to soccer practice.  The terrain is very hilly here, and it's a 20m car drive, maybe 45m-1hr for an adult to bike, almost impossible for a kid..

 

If we lived in NYC or SF or Toronto like most do on here and all family lived in a big city as well I can see how going carless is easy.  You take the train, or you fly.  Or maybe on the rare chance you venture outside of an urban area you Uber.  In fly-over-land (Western Pennsylvania) there isn't the infrastructure to support this.  There are trains and some busses, but they're only for commuting.

 

I have no idea if my kids will want to drive.  They're too small.  One of them loves jeeps and off-roading vehicles, maybe he'll have a mud slinging truck.

 

Maybe I'll be a dinosaur driving, who knows, I accept it.  I just wonder how where we live would support all of these extra cars.  Think of the traffic jams leaving a high school football game.  You'd have a jam of cars trying to get there at the same time, then all leave to go pick other people up, then all come back at the same time and leave again.  Where we're at it isn't nice four lane roads with turning lanes.  It's twisty little hilly streets that can't be widened. 

 

I think the AV car revolution will hit the coastal urban areas first then take another 15-20 years to trickle throughout the rest of the country.  It's probably better that way, traffic is an issue in Manhattan, it's not an issue in Paducah, KY.

 

I'm sure you are correct about hitting the high population density regions first and the rural areas much later.  It will role out in much the same way Uber has/is.  I'm sure if you live in the middle of nowhere with corn fields as far as the eye can see you couldn't easily call for an Uber driver right now.

 

[Travis Wiedower]

I got rid of my car a month ago and am loving it so far (live downtown with no children). When I need it, I do some combination of Uber/Zipcar/car rental. It feels like a waste of money to rent a car just for a long weekend trip, but then I remind myself how much I'm saving by not owning a car.

[rkbabang]

I got rid of my car a month ago and am loving it so far (live downtown with no children). When I need it, I do some combination of Uber/Zipcar/car rental. It feels like a waste of money to rent a car just for a long weekend trip, but then I remind myself how much I'm saving by not owning a car.

 

"live downtown", which is why this is possible for you.  You can't live in the suburbs (never mind rural areas) without owning a car.

Even most small cities aren't as livable for the carless as the larger ones are.  If I lived and worked in a large city I wouldn't own a car either.  The thing about cities is that the easier the city is to live in without owning a car the more difficult, inconvenient, and expensive it is to actually own a car if you wanted to.  If you lived in Manhattan it would be incredibly inconvenient and expensive to own a vehicle, never mind 2-4 of them as most suburbanites do.  This is a good indication of what will happen when car ownership becomes rare everywhere.  The fewer people who own their own vehicles in an area over time the more and more inconvenient and expensive continuing to own one yourself will become.  Parking lots/garages will start getting smaller or disappearing as land is developed for its best marginal use, even in the suburbs you will see large shopping centers with very little parking capacity as acres of land dedicated for parking will just be a waste of money.  City streets will have more space for pickup/drop off only stopping (5 min parking only) and less for leaving your car there for a long time.  Development will proceed in a direction with the assumption that people don't own their own cars and need places to park them.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Mr. Musk on the move again: Elon Musk launches Neuralink, a venture to merge the human brain with AI .

 

The concept of burn out or running out of steam seems like a total stranger to Mr. Musk.

 

 

 

[Jurgis]

Resistance is futile!  8)

[rkbabang]

Mr. Musk on the move again: Elon Musk launches Neuralink, a venture to merge the human brain with AI .

 

The concept of burn out or running out of steam seems like a total stranger to Mr. Musk.

 

 

Q: "Elon Musk...human?"

 

A:  Not for long.

 

 

[Liberty]

FAQ on the Boring Company:

 

https://www.boringcompany.com/faq/

 

He posted some pics recently:

 

 

[Jurgis]

Positive article on the Boring Company and NY-DC tunnel tweet that was made fun of on the Internetz:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/elon-musk-s-tunnel-plan-isn-t-as-crazy-as-spacex-or-tesla

[John Hjorth]

Somehow, I consider this activity disruptive to this activity of Berkshire.

 

I want one! - And I hope that Mr. Buffett does not get angry and starts buying Tesla agressively!

[Grant]

I have an engineer friend who told me that among his engineering circle of friends, they actually don't find Musk's technical aptitude all that impressive. His main talent is rallying the best engineers together for a common cause (e.g. build a rocket, electric car).

This is how me (I'm a computer engineer with some mechanical experience) and my engineering friends view him as well.

 

I haven't actually seen much engineering done by him, but going off the hyperloop whitepaper he's either not an engineer or a terrible one. There's little to no mention of thermal expansion coefficients, mass of the capsules, seals, most failure modes, acceleration loading, recharging times, etc. All done for less cost per mile than a roller-coaster! Yes it's a neat idea, but not original besides the use of air bearings instead of magnets. That anyone would fund a hyperloop company based on the whitepaper is completely insane, and a testament to the ridiculous fervor surrounding Musk.

 

He says he was fired from PayPal because he wanted them to switch from Unix to Windows. In 2000 this was nuts - Windows was not nearly as mature as a server platform as Unix or Linux. Moving to it would have been a bad decision.

 

Then there are all his self-driving promises, with only a forward-facing radar and cameras... He seems to be backing off these claims now, which is good. I'd actually love to know what the dynamic range is on the AP2 cameras; anyone know where to get junkyard Tesla parts?

 

From the available evidence it looks to me like Musk is good at motivating engineers to take bold risks and work on exciting projects. Sometimes he hits home runs (SpaceX), but his lack of in-depth, applied technical knowledge means he often mistakes what is possible for what is not. He may be a genius and fully capable of great feats of engineering, but if so he does not seem to focus his talents long enough to really analyze the viability of his goals.

 

Disclosure: I'm probably going to short Tesla if it hits $400.