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When will there be a recession?


AzCactus
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When will we have our next recession  

80 members have voted

  1. 1. When will we have our next recession

    • First half of 2015
    • Second half of 2015
    • First half of 2016
    • Second half of 2016
    • 2017 or later


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With the market an all time high (and me being a natural contrarian) when do you think their will be a recession and how bad will it be? 

 

Seth Klarman wrote an excerpt entitled "someday" in his 2013 letter to shareholders highlighting his perspective.

 

Happy Holidays To All

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Im worried about Japan. Im afraid it might cause a shockwave. Since government debt markets are basicly a form of ponzi scheme. I think some higher up ministers and Abe were caught saying something like, 'well printing money is far from perfect, but got any better suggestions on fixing this mess?'.

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The big bang is predicted to happen Sept 30th so the debt defaults (the "bang") start in the developing world then the contagion spreads. The cause is too much debt in a non-local currency except for the US where the recession is caused by a rise in the USD and the implementation of FATCA. The duration is longer than usual because the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. A new Europe, Japan and China will rise from the ashes with a new monetary system replacing the USD as the reserve currency so the trick will be to get out of USD before confidence in the USD collapses. My bet is we go to 100% reserve banking to continue the trend of the all powerful state.

 

 

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I feel like the poll should have been worded differently.

 

When will there be a recession? -- After 2017 with 100%.

 

Why? Because you didn't ask "When will we have our next recession?" There is a 100% chance that there will be a recession after 2017 and before the end of days. :)

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When GDP falls in two successive quarters.

 

 

 

 

On a serious note, you'll see a recession when

- yield curve inverts

- your not too bright neighbor or cousin makes a killing trading stocks

- quit rate starts dropping

- U6 bottoms out

- gdp gap goes into negative

- Fed tightens

- talking heads talk about soft landing

- junk bonds live up to their name

- inflation heats up

- housing permits starts dropping

- construction employment drops

- LMCI activity graph tops out

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I feel like the poll should have been worded differently.

 

When will there be a recession? -- After 2017 with 100%.

 

Why? Because you didn't ask "When will we have our next recession?" There is a 100% chance that there will be a recession after 2017 and before the end of days. :)

 

Fair point--an adjustment has been made :)

 

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When GDP falls in two successive quarters.

 

 

 

 

On a serious note, you'll see a recession when

- yield curve inverts

- your not too bright neighbor or cousin makes a killing trading stocks

- quit rate starts dropping

- U6 bottoms out

- gdp gap goes into negative

- Fed tightens

- talking heads talk about soft landing

- junk bonds live up to their name

- inflation heats up

- housing permits starts dropping

- construction employment drops

- LMCI activity graph tops out

 

- talking heads talk about soft landing ( my favourite)

another: government says the bubble (whatever it might turn out to be) is contained.

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