Jump to content

The elusive 100 bagger


berkshire101
 Share

Recommended Posts

One can dream right?  :'(

 

I thought it would be fun to toss around ideas of where we could find that one company that could potentially return 100 times our initial investment.  Nowadays, a lot of small companies raise capital through private funding.  But I still believe there's hope! 

 

The best idea I came across is Ocean Bio-Chem (OBCI).  They're basically the Clorox for the boating industry and expanding into other areas such as auto and housing.  They're about $41 million in market cap.  So to make 100 times, their market cap needs to be $4.1 billion.  Their market potential is fairly large. 

 

Any other ideas?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ELDO needs a market cap of $600m which would be a fraction of Aquafina or Dasani. Eldorado already sells their water at similar premium prices as the major multinational waters (unlike most small water companies or private brands). DPS buy-out?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ELDO needs a market cap of $600m which would be a fraction of Aquafina or Dasani. Eldorado already sells their water at similar premium prices as the major multinational waters (unlike most small water companies or private brands). DPS buy-out?

Is there any reason why eldorado might be expected to take share from competitors?  Their direct/delivery plan?  Is the distribution channel worth anything to DPS (given dps is already massive)?

 

EDIT: looking at their pricing for delivery, it seems really expensive per .5L case versus other brands -I guess they are meant to compete with the smart water/VOSS of the world?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ELDO needs a market cap of $600m which would be a fraction of Aquafina or Dasani. Eldorado already sells their water at similar premium prices as the major multinational waters (unlike most small water companies or private brands). DPS buy-out?

Is there any reason why eldorado might be expected to take share from competitors?  Their direct/delivery plan?  Is the distribution channel worth anything to DPS (given dps is already massive)?

 

EDIT: looking at their pricing for delivery, it seems really expensive per .5L case versus other brands -I guess they are meant to compete with the smart water/VOSS of the world?

 

 

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Jana-European-Artesian-Water-50.7-oz-Pack-of-12/17197760

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Eternal-Artesian-Naturally-Alkaline-Water-20.2-oz-Pack-of-24/17197299

 

http://www.bottledwaterweb.com/bottlersdetail.do?k=615

 

From what I understand, Artesian water is its own category so think VOSS/Fiji.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are 100 baggers attractive?

Isn't it all about cagr?

So it depends on how long it takes.

 

If it is about buy, hold and forget and 20 years later you have a 100 bagger.

Then, yes this would be attractive as you would have a 26% cagr with 1 buy decision.

 

If however, it took 100 years for a 20 bagger, you would only end up with a 3% cagr...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ELDO needs a market cap of $600m which would be a fraction of Aquafina or Dasani. Eldorado already sells their water at similar premium prices as the major multinational waters (unlike most small water companies or private brands). DPS buy-out?

Is there any reason why eldorado might be expected to take share from competitors?  Their direct/delivery plan?  Is the distribution channel worth anything to DPS (given dps is already massive)?

 

EDIT: looking at their pricing for delivery, it seems really expensive per .5L case versus other brands -I guess they are meant to compete with the smart water/VOSS of the world?

 

 

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Jana-European-Artesian-Water-50.7-oz-Pack-of-12/17197760

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Eternal-Artesian-Naturally-Alkaline-Water-20.2-oz-Pack-of-24/17197299

 

http://www.bottledwaterweb.com/bottlersdetail.do?k=615

 

From what I understand, Artesian water is its own category so think VOSS/Fiji.

haha my first thought was "they're going to need an original looking bottle if they're going to be taken seriously in the artesian water space."

 

I guess when you're looking at 100 baggers the common refrain for viewing science fiction movies is also required: one has to allow some suspension of disbelief?  Not to pick on you but I'm actually looking at the idea with genuine interest - I mean I could see a water pure-play trading from 6mm to 600mm.  Are they overlooked or are they doing something that will cause them to take share from competitors?  Or is it that due to the relative scarcity of naturally occurring source for potable water they are worth more than their current market cap - these guys own the access right to the aquifer?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One can dream right?  :'(

 

I thought it would be fun to toss around ideas of where we could find that one company that could potentially return 100 times our initial investment.  Nowadays, a lot of small companies raise capital through private funding.  But I still believe there's hope! 

 

The best idea I came across is Ocean Bio-Chem (OBCI).  They're basically the Clorox for the boating industry and expanding into other areas such as auto and housing.  They're about $41 million in market cap.  So to make 100 times, their market cap needs to be $4.1 billion.  Their market potential is fairly large. 

 

Any other ideas?

studied this one for a while, but the US army holds the patents on their products it seems. I forgot the name of the substance. but if that was a real opportunnity you would have seen something already. There is a british equivalent that uses the same product. |It is doing a better job monetizing it. Called tristel plc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great question to ponder! I have not one idea in which I have confidence that seems to have potential to become a 100 bagger. I'm always suspicious about the future and never feel comfortable with any investment. My current holdings are: BRK, Cash, MAT, WFM, WMK, IBM, CBI, BBBY and IILG; in order of portfolio weighting.

 

I'm moderately comfortable with all of them and I'm confident I'll outperform the market as I usually do, but none of those has real potential to become a 100 bagger, most actually not even a 10 bagger. I will certainly appreciate some insight on how to improve the chances of finding those jewels!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Here are two more ideas:  RAVN and WHG.

 

RAVN is about a $1 billion company.  They're basically a mini industrial conglomerate.  Who knows, they could be the next GE.  Great return on capital and the market size is large.

 

WHG is an asset manager like BEN, BLK, and TROW.  Pretty easy to scale this business.  And they have great return on capital and good at raising capital.

 

I've begun doing some work on WHG - they've certainly seen impressive growth. What would you say is a differentiator for them in what is an incredibly competitive industry? Also a bit disappointing to not see Susan Byrne or other leaders with more significant ownership - all have consistently sold down their stakes over the years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why has no one mentioned that market cap increase is not the only path to a 100 bagger? You can also benefit from stock buybacks, public LBO, etc.

 

 

Yep, I seem to recall that Eric realised between 40 and 80 bags on most of his FFH options 10 or 12 years ago.  And FFH's market cap only tripled or quadrupled over the same period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Near-BK or BK situations can yield 100 baggers. E.g. Fannie/Freddie common/prefs could be 100 bagger from $0.3 prices (prices are higher now).

 

There were energy/bank X0 (perhaps not 100, but 20-50) baggers coming out of 2009.

 

Of course, options is another place where 100 bagger can happen.

 

Biotechs - which are kind-of near-BK/option situations.

 

But lottery is the best for 1000+ baggers  ;D

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey all:

 

Over time, dividends can help produce 100 baggers.  It depends on the time frame too.  National Beverage (FIZZ) has been over 100x in the last 25 years.  Dividends were a good part of that.

 

If you bought Apple computer back in the late 90's, dividends are starting to become a huge component of it's return.  A family member bought 400 AAPL shares back in the late 90's, just after NeXT was bought & Jobs came back.  They now have just over 11,000 shares.  Every QUARTER, they get back their initial investment in the form of dividends. 

 

I am sure there are other examples of stocks that have grown dividends tremendously over 15-20 years...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...