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Would you hold or sell ?


gary17
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I own shares in Company A...

 

The shares of Company A is now trading at 1.1x Book and has historically done ROE of 20%.  My cost basis is about 50% of book value from a few years ago.  Would you hold or sell this company ?

 

Thanks :)

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With apologies to The Clash,

 

Darlin you got to let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

If your payout ratio is going up

I’ll hold here till the end of time

So you got to let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

 

It’s always tease tease tease

You’re happy when I’m on my knees

One day is red and the next is black

So if you want me off your register

Well come on an’ let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

 

Should I hold or should I sell

Should I hold or should I sell

If I sell there will be trouble

An’ if I hold will be a double

So come on and let me know

 

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With apologies to The Clash,

 

Darlin you got to let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

If your payout ratio is going up

I’ll hold here till the end of time

So you got to let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

 

It’s always tease tease tease

You’re happy when I’m on my knees

One day is red and the next is black

So if you want me off your register

Well come on an’ let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

 

Should I hold or should I sell

Should I hold or should I sell

If I sell there will be trouble

An’ if I hold will be a double

So come on and let me know

 

How are you going to work in "should I cool it or should I blow"?  Seems like you left off right before that . . . .

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With apologies to The Clash,

 

Darlin you got to let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

If your payout ratio is going up

I’ll hold here till the end of time

So you got to let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

 

It’s always tease tease tease

You’re happy when I’m on my knees

One day is red and the next is black

So if you want me off your register

Well come on an’ let me know

Should I hold or should I sell

 

Should I hold or should I sell

Should I hold or should I sell

If I sell there will be trouble

An’ if I hold will be a double

So come on and let me know

 

How are you going to work in "should I cool it or should I blow"?  Seems like you left off right before that . . . .

 

I had a friend who was really good at this sort of thing. This was my first attempt, so I stopped before I got through all the verses and made too much of a fool of myself!

 

Here is one my friend did that is appropriate considering the current market,

 

Guess who just got back today?

That wild-eyed Bear that had been away

Hadn't changed, hadn't much to say

But man, I still think his fur looks great

 

He was asking if Abby Joe was around

How she was, where she could be found

I told him she was still at Goldman

Driving all the old bulls crazy

 

The Bear is back in town

 

(Spread the word around

Guess who's back in town)

 

Weekdays he'll be dressed to kill

Down at the corner of Wall and Main

The knives will fall and blood will spill

If the Bear wants to fight, there'll be a world of pain

 

The big screen in the corner turning green to red

The lows are getting near, the bulls have fled

It won't be long till equity's dead

Now that the Bear is here again

 

The Bear is back in town

 

(Spread the word)

 

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Over the long term, returns approach ROE....so hold?

 

Are there any studies on this? I get why this is conceptually true, but when I look at long term results (I did spot checks on WM, MSFT, and IBM) the stock total returns are not close to what chaining together the yearly ROEs would imply. Maybe there is an issue with using accounting-based ROEs?

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Yes, Company A is a financial company.

 

Before the great recession, it had ROE of 19% - 24% range from 1995 - 2007 

It then did very poorly during the recession; that's of course when it was cheap... it's now profitable again, but the share price has tripled from my cost. 

 

I recently (about a month or so ago) bought a lot of Company B with the following metrics

0.8Book value, ROE of about 10% and EPS growth of about 9% estimated for the next few years.   

 

I thought Company B was very attractive, so I added quite significantly to the starter position I had...  Meanwhile I also had Company A, so I was quite heavily leveraged. 

 

I did eventually sell out of Company A yesterday morning.... I did so before I posted here... I felt like I wanted to confirm whether I made a good decision or not ;)  I think in the end I'll find out a few years later... because these company's performance will not be known today or tomorrow; but over the next few years !

 

Gary

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Yes, Company A is a financial company.

 

Before the great recession, it had ROE of 19% - 24% range from 1995 - 2007 

It then did very poorly during the recession; that's of course when it was cheap... it's now profitable again, but the share price has tripled from my cost. 

 

I recently (about a month or so ago) bought a lot of Company B with the following metrics

0.8Book value, ROE of about 10% and EPS growth of about 9% estimated for the next few years.   

 

I thought Company B was very attractive, so I added quite significantly to the starter position I had...  Meanwhile I also had Company A, so I was quite heavily leveraged. 

 

I did eventually sell out of Company A yesterday morning.... I did so before I posted here... I felt like I wanted to confirm whether I made a good decision or not ;)  I think in the end I'll find out a few years later... because these company's performance will not be known today or tomorrow; but over the next few years !

 

Gary

 

That's why I asked. We shouldn't expect the financials to have the same ROE/ROA as before 2007. At least that's the way I see it.

 

 

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I agree -  I think the ROE will likely be more like 12 - 15% going forward -

 

I guess what I was trying to understand is this....  if a company has a book value of $20.  It's trading at $22... and I paid $6.7  and going forward I expect ROE of 12% or ($20x12% = $2.4 EPS...  theoretically that's a nice $2.4 / $6.7 = 36% return each year...  and i'm not factoring in the growth.  However, as a shareholder.....  I really need to be thinking about how much of that $is actually coming back into my pocket in the form of dividends...  it's just an interesting thought process; and the comparing to other opportunities that I was looking at (Company B). 

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I am curious would you consider industry specific factors in such assessment? For example, it seems there are quite some companies in the insurance sector, trading well below book with decent ROE and expected growth. However, the very low bond yields (or bond bubble) would likely be a big drag for years, aside from the competition.

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I agree -  I think the ROE will likely be more like 12 - 15% going forward -

 

I guess what I was trying to understand is this....  if a company has a book value of $20.  It's trading at $22... and I paid $6.7  and going forward I expect ROE of 12% or ($20x12% = $2.4 EPS...  theoretically that's a nice $2.4 / $6.7 = 36% return each year...  and i'm not factoring in the growth.  However, as a shareholder.....  I really need to be thinking about how much of that $is actually coming back into my pocket in the form of dividends...  it's just an interesting thought process; and the comparing to other opportunities that I was looking at (Company B).

 

I certainly wouldn't use my historical cost basis to figure my return each year. 

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