finetrader

MERC 3 / FBK 0 last minute to play in second period :'(

I dont know how you get 15M$ FCF. i get 3.457+9.1-0.381-1.965+= 10.2M operating CF minus 4.034M capex = 6.17M$ FCF for the quarter

it's been 2 disappointing quarters in a row.

Do you think there is an inverse way to do with options so you can take money out of tax-deferred account and not be taxed on it? (could be useful when close to retirement when you have to start taking money off the tax-deferred account)

For FBK, other than the obvious NBSK pulp price, I look at cotton price specifically to gauge the commodity trend.

I live in Quebec province and a radio personality(Paul Arcand) had it right this morning. He said that he feels like we have been partying all night and Jack was in the house and then... you wake up!.. and you start thinking about the fun you've had but also at the studip things that you have done while high on dope,, and then you start thinking.. what the hell have i done? I mean I think there is 4 NDP deputies from quebec that are students, an another don't even speak french or hardly.. As a Quebecer, I don't think I will be well represented in Ottawa..

..but you don't get the dividend Still, it seems a cheap premium

ERICOPOLY, How much were the 'at the money' leaps (percentage of stock price) on Fairfax when you made the trades back in 2006? Thanks

I guess it's better to be slow and to come up with good ideas than just to fill pages with mediocre investment thesis

I agree!. Sex.........and Rock'n'roll.. the American way! :-\

I'll meet you there!

Fed support coming to an end could affect stock market liquidity but since government intervention don't have a lot of effect on the economy itself , I doubt this support coming to an end will have an effect on GDP.. So in this environment, why not invest in solid companies trading at bargains and 'hedge' by shorting SPY. This way you eliminate market risk.

Governor Mark Carney has said recently that there are "limits to the divergence" in policy between the Bank of Canada and the Fed, given Canada's trade reliance on its neighbour. That is exactly what I mean

Well i'm not a pro in central bank intervention, but i believe they can buy US dollar with Canadian dollar and levered the central bank instead of the governement if they have to. Canada cannot decouple that much from the US on a currency stand point. They will have to dilute 'peg' the loonie to keep up with the US dollar.

CAD higher than 1.10 US will probably oblige the Bank of Canada to intervene in the currency.

Tim McElvaine adding to his japanese holdings http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=126622

try Grest-West lifeco (GWO-t) and Manulife (MFC) Great west is more stable, but I like Manulife better as an investment because of a much lower P/B ratio. MFC have screwed up by being too much exposed to interest rate and stock market.(good in a up market but not so good during the great recession) but believe they learned from their lesson. Going forward they want to lower their sensitivity to interest rate and stock market change. If one believe that interest rate will go higher in the future, it is problably better to have maximum exposure to interest rate but Manulife have investors that want reliable earnings and steady dividend. So by hedging more and showing a few quarters of steady earnings I believe investors will go back to this stock and pushing P/B higher.

enjoy! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/fairfax-e-mails-come-back-to-haunt-a-wall-street-titan/article1938790/page1/

make me wanna look more at a strategy to invest in a security and hedge the market risk.

I was thinking about it.. What about having calls or leaps on a company. ex:SSW and to hedge by selling calls on an index ex:S&P500 ?

about wiping your ... with recycled fiber http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cascades-aims-to-take-the-scratch-out-of-recycled-toilet-paper/article1929376/

Call it agency cost problemless. I, as an investor, find it is one of the biggest risk do deal with.

My view on this: -The new book value is probably closer to real value. I really don't see FBK at 3-4 dollar, not until RBK side of business is 'fixed'. But 2.00$-2.25$/share possible in this environment. -Too bad they had to took impairment on their hard asset, it was providing a tax shield in big amortization cost. FCF was way higher than earnings, and I estimate that there will be about 10M$ less per year of amortization expense, resulting in higher earnings everything else being equal going forward . I, as an owner preferred having the tax shield, but maybe one of the reasons why stock is so low is because analysts and investors focus on earnings. So this could help share price in the future..who knows... (I have a question concerning this change from GAAP to IFRS: will this change results in impairment and big losses on 2011 Q1?) - The argument that Abitibi controls chip cost and they could profit in acquiring FBK is weak, I mean you have to take into account that Abitibi is already making a profit from selling wood chip to FBK. 1+1=2 and (1+1)=2... there could be some synergies but not that much in my opinion. -What is probable is that if so many people think that the stock is cheap, that Abitibi used to own it, so they must know the real value, and if a competitor (an expert in the business) think that FBK is cheap and have the financial ressource to make an offer(ex: Domtar), than FBK being a target is possible. -I suspect that FFH( friendly acquisition and passive investor mentality), combine by the fact that FBK is a small % of FFH, that they will let FBK's management run the business freely. as being acquired.. if Abitibi or anyone else is interesting in FBK and if management don't want to sell, they could just send an unsollicited offer.

I live in Montreal, Canada. Real estate here haven't go down during the recession, in fact it is probably 10-20% higher now than before the great recession. I've been thinking about profiting from the US housing market that could have bottommed out. A way do to it would be to buy a condo or a house in the US and rent it, but I don't have the hability nor the interest of taking care of a house quite far from home. I was thinking that maybe there exist a fund or a company that is listed on an exchange that do try to profit from US foreclosure houses. thanks

So glad I found interesting people that share same interest than mine! Thanks Sanjeev!