finetrader

doesn't look good.. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/osc-orders-sino-forest-executives-to-resign/article2143054/

You're right it is not too late too invest in it if you have a long term horizon. I'll let the dust settle after this news and will buy more. This Buffett investment convince me now more than ever that this is an opportunity too make a lot of dough in a 5 years horizon (perhaps sooner) when us real estate will pick up.

All the big US banks are up 4%-15%! how much market cap gain this is? Buffett has such an effect on stock market!

This can go on and on for a long time as cigarette manufacturer will fight and delay in court. The putback case make me think of this situation. BAC is trying to settle fast and move on, but if the price is too big, they will fight and delay the case in court and collect ~80-100B$/year in cash flow from operation in the meantime. And the people suing them will have to wait for their money, if they receive any.

what are their exposure to Europe?

I'm wondering what kind of reaction MBI share price would have if they annonce 1 Billion $ settlement with BAC concerning the putback.

Well another 10% drop and we are at S&P500 = 1000. do you see a drop to 800 like 2008-2009. It may but i don't think we are in such a critical situation than in 2008. That said I did not buy today. I'm waiting for a bottoming. 1100 may well be a bottom. The downgrade is past news now. We are not in a recession. ECB is buying bond to calm market. This could be a bottom until new economic data comes ( which will dictate the direction of the market)

Another freaking day? http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/07/markets/world_markets_downgrade/index.htm

I have this feeling we will be hearing about deflation again in a not too distant future

35% cash (it was 25%) but this % is growing because other assets price are losing value and i haven't put cash to work yet. Will buy BAC, WFC, BRK incrementally until i have no cash and S&P500 hit 1000. If it ever goes there.

stock price movement is anything, non sense! it is in face of these situations that i admire Hamblin Watsa's attitude of buying stocks that went down a lot and forget about it (get detached from it) and wait for a double.

Fallen NBSK price combined with CAD appreciation are not conditions for FBK to make the most of it

look, I'm not a technical guy, and i think that short term anything can happen. All I'm doing, is that I'm not buying a stock that the chart is pointing downhill even if the stock price indicate a bargain. I will wait for some horizontal points.

When buying a cheap stock that has go down, I try to use technical analysis to find a good entry point. A rare good argument I have heard from technical analysts is that even if you are a fundamental guy, before buying a fallen knife, wait for a graphic that is showing some king of bottoming.

Still a 14% position. few good things coming: -turbo generator -possibility of dividend next year? -new arrangement with customer for RBK risk: -NBSK price to soften -CAD appreciation (been correlated to NBSK price lately) -Wastepaper price is increasing ( i'm afraid that RBk' s side will loose money in Q2)

I have lowered my FCF estimates for FBK to about 30-35M$/year in this environment. I though they could easily do 10M$FCF/quarter but i underestimated the impact of a mill shutdown. They shutdown the St-Felicien mill about twice a year and it seems to cost them a bundle every time they do it.

Maybe like you say they are exagerating the problem just to get a bailout.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merkel-warns-against-Greek-apf-2594870427.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode= Now I can see why WEB called them weapon of mass destruction.

Globe and Mail IS a credible source!

Thanks for the input guys, at first i didn't realized the 'mirror image' relationship that exist between the DAC on the asset side and the unearned premium on the liability side. So i guess in the future If i am going to count the unearned premium as a liability, i will count DAC as a tangible asset. And maybe discount it(but not completely) when looking at a poor insurer. I think I found one potent company that would qualified with respect to buying way below tangible.. I'll tell you later about it.. :-X

On other discussion tread, people have made reference to the Davis Dinasty. I haven't read this book yet, but plan to do it soon. From what I've understand, they bought insurance companies selling at below tangible book value. So I've screen a few insurance companies, and I've noticed that an item on the asset side come quite regularly. it is the Deferred acquisition costs. I am wondering what this item is all about and if you would consider it to be a tangible or intangible asset? anyone could enlightened on this? I'm assuming that it is intangible since it is money spend on acquiring new business that COULD pay off in the future. Thanks in advance

another article: http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/03/the-sino-forest-buzz-saw/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sino-forest-scrambles-to-defend-its-reputation/article2046252/page1/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/the-man-behind-the-sino-forest-takedown/article2044756/

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