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Charlie

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Everything posted by Charlie

  1. The costs of living in Madeira are about 40% cheaper than in Germany and it is a very beautiful warm island.
  2. I was pretty enthusiastic finding this in my holidays in Madeira. Cheers!
  3. + 4%. I have everything in Berkshire and did no work. (in Euro it's more like + 8,5% and since I live in Europe I will take this number) https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-warren-buffett-51672341403?siteid=yhoof2
  4. John Hjorth The most money manager are far, far worse. So don´t criticize these ones who write something valueable. Additional "doing nothing" is a very important concept as an investor. If he focus his thoughts with writing in his "doing nothing" time there is nothing wrong with it. In the end it´s his track record that counts.
  5. Merry Christmas and a happy New Year to everyone!!! Stay healthy!!! According to Buffett it's 99% of success!!!
  6. I bought some Berkshire b shares. When everybody thinks a recession is coming, there are usually good buying opportunities.
  7. Now you can ask yourself why is Munger doing all this anti-Bitcoin interviews? Does he want hurt Bitcoin-investors? Of course not. He thinks that the US is a little bit to permissive with bubbles/wretched excesses. Because when these bubbles are going long enough, they have terrible consequences for a lot of people. And the longer the bubbles go, the uglier the after-math. So it is important to deflate a bubble as early as possible. Munger is doing the country a service, because nobody else is doing it, because people get hated for it and nobody earns money saying it. Who cares? Bitcoin is up some percentage...
  8. "All the respect in the world for Charlie and Warren. But they've entirely missed the boat on basically all things tech related historically. I don't know why I'd expect this to be anything different for them." Nearly half of Berkshires equity portfolio is Apple.
  9. It always surprises me that when Buffett and Munger say that cryptocurrencies are worthless, there are thousands of intelligent people arguing otherwise. Buffett and Munger have a very, very high success rate with these predictions. The counter argument is always that Buffett doesn't understand crypto. That's like saying Einstein doesn't understand the relativitaets theory. An asset is worth the discounted cash flows. Since crypto doesn't produce anything, they are worthless.... Crypto people always come up with elegant theories, but investing is simple. The elegant theories are probably made from the people who are selling or profiting from high crypto prices or are technology people, which like the technology aspects of crypto. Investing is simple, but not easy.
  10. Great interview! Thank you! I liked the quote: "His (Buffett´s) great attribute is knowing when and how to adapt. Like the Keynes quote “the facts have changed, what did you do?” Most of us get more set in our ways. It’s part of being a learning machine to avoid that."
  11. Berkshire’s Operating Profit Rose 20% in 3Q. Buybacks Totaled $1.1 Billion. https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-warren-buffett-earnings-51667582956?siteid=yhoof2 Cheers!
  12. "Yesterday AH AAPL was at 138 and BRK 286. This mornin? 155 and 297. When are folks gonna stop trying to predict the short term future? This shit only really works if you're in marketing and selling products to people. Handling your own money? Not so much. " When the top lieutnant at Berkshire, who overseas most businesses, buy nearly 100 million $ Berkshire shares shortly pre 3rd quarter earnings it´s probably a bullish sign. Somewhere all this price increases (that means for the companies charging it earnings) have to go and Buffett usually buys the companies with the most pricing power. Berkshire shares tend to go up pre and after earnings releases, because it´s a wonderful company and a wonderful company tends to produce great earnings. Apple was near the buy zone where Buffett was buying and nearly every second man around me seems still smart phone addicted. The first half of 2022 was not so good for equities and in addition there are a lot of equity strategies which don´t invest in Sep and Oct (because of unusually frequency of equty crashes) and this money will be invested in Nov again. So sometimes the short term is not so unpredictable as it seems. History does not repeat but it rhymes....
  13. "Teaching and watching my kids learn (science, reading, gymnastics, math, languages, its all amazing)" + 1 That is really one of the best things in life!!! "If investing ain't #1, you should index." If you know your circle of competence and invest only in No-Brainers it can be a mistake to index. I would say that everybody should look at his own Track Record and that should tell you if you should index or not. Track Record is everything, because it show people´s overoptimistic bias in their own abilities.
  14. I am interested in what other thinks are there greatest fun activities. I will start with: 1. traveling 2. soccer 3. surfing (John Paul Getty said he had the most fun in his live with surfing).
  15. I think BASF is very cheap and I see not much downside here and good upside. It´s a blue chip with a cigar butt valuation. Allianz and Munich Re are probably pretty mediocre, but they know their circle of competence and that´s terrible important. Some years ago the Sequoia Fund invested in Porsche and got burnt badly. I don´t trust the capital allocation decisions at Porsche. I don´t think Deutsche Post is a great business. The MDax outperformed the Dax, but not much: https://www.comdirect.de/inf/indizes/detail/chart.html?timeSpan=1D&ID_NOTATION=323547#timeSpan=SE&benchmarkNotations=20735&benchmarkColors=147de6&selectedBenchmarks=true&e& The conclusion of this post: Don´t buy anything, because of currency. It´s the business that counts. Just buy Berkshire Hathaway. https://www.comdirect.de/inf/aktien/detail/chart.html?timeSpan=SE&ID_NOTATION=32989299&#benchmarkNotations=20735&benchmarkNotations=323547&benchmarkColors=147de6&benchmarkColors=0c9c2e&selectedBenchmarks=true&selectedBenchmarks=true&e&
  16. "I think companies worth owning are Deutsche Post, Porsche Holding (POAHY) and Exor Holding for example. For exposure to the German market, I would get an MDAX ETF , which gives you more exposure to Midcap German companies for example." I would buy the german companies Buffett bought: BASF, Allianz and Munich Re. He said he invested $5 billion in these together. A lot of german companies are very capital-intensive and that´s a big disadvantage.
  17. I´m semi-retired with 46 years. I work 2-3 hours in the morning and the rest of the day I do what I like to do. Over the years I put all my money in Berkshire and that worked out pretty well. Our house I bought 15 years ago for the land price. The house is paid of. We have two 4-year old boys and these are the joy and stress of my life. I do a lot of swimming and bicycling. I used to play soccer, but my joints are hurting from it. Most important advice: Live life to the fullest. One day you can´t do it anymore.
  18. Sold the last of the underperforming fund of my parents and bought with the proceeds half Berkshire b shares and Bank of America shares.
  19. No vacation homes. Too inflexible and too expensive. I´m writing this message from Greece (Chalkidiki) with a beautiful view at the mediterranean see. We are on holidays. Greece is very beautiful. In november we will travel to South Africa for the second time. I can recommend the Tsitsikamma National park. The first time was fantastic. Some years back we were at the Maledives. That was fantastic, too. I really never regretted spending money for a great holiday.
  20. I sold an underperforming fund of my parents and bought half Berkshire b shares and half Bank of America shares from the proceeds.
  21. "Crazy isn’t it? That the overwhelming majority of WS money guys make decisions based on their interests even if they are detrimental to the interests of the people paying them? " What usually counts are the incentives of the decision maker. You have this problem probably in every profession. It´s human nature. So as Buffett would say: "Don´t ask the barbar, if you need a haircut." or as Munger said: "Double check the opinion of the expert and decide after carefully thinking." Self-interest rule the world....
  22. Bought some Berkshire b shares. I think there is an increase in intrinsic value and a decrease in share price. That´s a good combination.
  23. From 2020: https://omaha.com/business/local/omaha-s-megabillionaire-down-the-street-warren-buffett-set-to-celebrate-his-90th-birthday/article_52ccc925-378c-5094-8a1f-b57b3d3fb8bc.html "But he has recently been pretty religious about spending 25 minutes a day on a treadmill, something he does while watching the evening news. “All you guys who used up your muscles and joints when you were young, I carefully put mine away in a box when I was 6 to save them for old age, and I only pulled them out a few years ago,” he said. “They’ve never been used.” I think the health benefit of half an hour fast walking or jogging is pretty good.
  24. Sold an underperforming fund of my parents and bought Apple shares.
  25. The strong US-Dollar could be a good tailwind for the German investments.
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