Morgan

Awesome thanks!

Congrats on all the work you’ve done to get the new site up. It looks good!

Why is the SSA disinclined to get people off the rolls? I live in WV and a lot of people here are on disability and I think it’s really a problem. Sometimes the entire family, even the young kids, will be on some kind of government disability plan and between the 3-5 people they’ll make a nice little bundle. Some people surely need disability, but many look like they’re cheating the system. I suppose the only thing to do is make it harder to get and review edge cases. there is a certain mentality, prevalent imo at SSA and many other areas of our society/culture, that moving people off the dole and into self-agency and individual responsibility is a bad thing...that people are entitled to their entitlements. the other view is that this the worst thing for people...cf fishes v fisherman Hmm. That very well may be true. This kind of thinking leads to a Beggars in Spain type situation. In my view, and yours is probably similar, the percentage of people on government programs relative to the population would hopefully decline over time. Recipients should use the time to improve them selves so as to provide for themselves at some point. Some recipients of course are permanently disabled and we should help them. Do you think there’s a way to change the culture around government programs so a smaller percentage of people use them over time?

Actually, I think you can say he is, at this point. Maybe an unconventional path to get there, but as lead rocket designer for SpaceX, and based on any reports I could see from people around him, he can hold his own with rocket engineers no problem. Nobody knows everything, but to pretend he doesn't know what he's doing and isn't a real rocket guy just because he didn't have some piece of paper or some job with some title at Boeing before this seems missing the forest for the trees to me. Self-education is still education, and doing is better proof of competence than diplomas. Yea, if he said something stupid about satellites it's most likely because he was simplifying for an audience. When the Falcon 1 reached Space it put Elon in an extremely elite group of people who'd created a privately funded orbital launch system, right now its Rocket Lab Electron, Northrop Minotaur, then you have a couple of tiny air launched vehicles form Virgin Orbit and Northrop Pegasus. Bezos has spent many billions and hasn't come close to orbit, barely reaching 1/10th the necessary velocity with a sub-orbital toy. Since then he's helped lead the design choices that created 1) The worlds leading launch system Falcon 9 that dramatically cut the cost of space access by ... choosing to use ten engines per launch. Yes, Falcon 9 was far cheaper than the competition before reusability because of the decision to design with a liquid fuel engine sized for mass manufacture. It's also cheaper because he didn't make the costly mistake so many others did (Arianespace, SLS, ULA) in adding solid boosters, or using a poor fuel as hydrogen as the first stage propellant. 2) Only then did his team master hypersonic retropropulsion to enable first stage re-use and recovery, using both RTLS and recovery ships. It's the first time cost effective re-use has ever been done for space launch. 3) Then he built the worlds biggest active rocket, the Falcon Heavy. 4) And now they are building the world first fully re-usable launch system, Starship. If you compare the design decisions between the Space Shuttle and Starship, you'd have to conclude Elon is a genius just from those. a) Using identical engines for both stages means they can be efficiently mass manufactured. The Shuttle SRBs were $70M each, and it's Hydrogen engines were $75M each (double that now for SLS), Raptors will cost less than $1M each. b) No expensive solid rocket boosters b) No heavy hydrogen tanks and engines, instead burning dense methane that fits in smaller, lighter tanks and doesn't evaporate over time like hydrogen does. c) No expensive fragile materials like the Shuttle heat tiles and it's aluminum frame, just super cheap stainless steel with much higher heat resistance with carefully located heat shield material on hot spots that can be easily replaced. d) No massive single stage stack to reach the Moon or Mars, instead cheap refueling in low orbit significantly increases velocity (shortening interplanetary trips) and allows for delivering much larger ($100 ton+) payloads. e) The robust heat resistance allows for aerobraking into Mars, saving huge amounts of fuel and again substantially increasing tonnage of payload landed. f) Methane can be made anywhere in the solar system, especially on Mars. This saves another massive amount of launch fuel and increases payloads yet again. 5) Oh, and there is Starlink. There were discussions of satellite constellations before but Musk is actually making this happen. Test results have been fantastic, as has launch cadence. Elon has literally put more satellites into space than anyone on this planet at this point, so I'm going to guess he knows a bit about how they work even if his real focus is launch systems and manned exploration of Mars. Musk may say idiotic things on a regular basis, but as a rocket designer he's neck and neck with Von Braun as the greatest in world history. The world is full of rocket engineers who've made grand plans and done nothing, and lots of them work at Boeing turning government dollars into nothing but pork. I agree with everything you’ve written and will also add that Starlink is probably going to make Elon one of the wealthiest people this century. It’s going to be hugely successful. So many areas basically have a government sponsored monopoly (and terrible) ISP. It’s past time for a step change so everyone can get excellent internet for a cheap price.

Why is the SSA disinclined to get people off the rolls? I live in WV and a lot of people here are on disability and I think it’s really a problem. Sometimes the entire family, even the young kids, will be on some kind of government disability plan and between the 3-5 people they’ll make a nice little bundle. Some people surely need disability, but many look like they’re cheating the system. I suppose the only thing to do is make it harder to get and review edge cases.

Perhaps I don’t understand M2 completely, but the price of everything I bought in 2020 for my company (plumbing and electric supplies, lumber, tools, etc) has gone up by at least 10%. Frequently 20% - 100% increases in prices. Lumber in particular has been completely insane. This is anecdotal of course, but everything is getting more expensive!

Agreed. Lol wut. That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard in a long time. Trump should be praised because his policy allowed more people to be infected and die so more studies could be done? Seriously? If ten times more people died would that be ten times better? Don’t you think we could have come to the same conclusion had only half or a quarter of the people got infected and died? By your logic, Mao should be praised for reducing the population in China so there’s be enough food to eat after the cultural revolution and famines? Have a famine, millions die. Now the little food we have is enough for the smaller population. Thanks Mao! /s Please tell me you’re being sarcastic? or I simply don’t know enough about vaccine development...

I read it and enjoyed most of it. It got kind of boring as it got into the failures of canary wharf project. But over all it was enjoyable.

u Excellent link to site. Thanks!

Just finished the book. It was easy to read and had lots of good info. It sounds like it would be great to work at Blackstone and learn their analysis process. He has been wildly successful (obviously) and it's fun to "go through" those experiences if you will.

Thank you for the recommendation. I ordered it, read it, and enjoyed it. If you have read other Buffett books and letters, you've read about all these investments before. That's ok though. This provided a different angle. That being said, all of the detailed financial info was very fun to review. It was interesting to read about the problems he had trying to expand the insurance businesses (Home State). Overall, a good book for Buffett junkies!

Very cool!

There are mods. There are also different boards. Focus on the investment board and ignore or mute the others. Also we’ve had a bit of a rally the last few years so there are fewer names that appear cheap...more time to talk about other topics I suppose.

Congratulations on your investments and your travels! I’m looking forward to reading more.

Holy cow that's incredible. -------------------------------------- I'll add some about my experience with a personal solar power system. I've been thinking about putting solar power on one of my apartment buildings to cover the laundry machines, hallway lights, and fire alarm system. When we run the electric furnace in the basement the bill skyrockets so I haven't been planning to cover that. We also renovated all of the basement into apartments and the tenants pay the heat, so the furnace issue may be a moot point now. Anyways, it's always been too expensive to make solar panels worth it, but in 3-5 years when I redo the roof, I'll reevaluate the prices. As soon as it's economical, I'll probably do it. If it goes well on that building, I'll add it to the others as well. I have another building where I pay the utilities, but I'm not going to add solar to cover the cost of electric there. Separating the utilities is a much better investment and also aligns incentives properly. People use less energy when they pay for it.

I’m in the Pittsburgh - Columbus area and I have seen one multi family portfolio that was reasonable, but the properties were pretty junky and not in a good area. Other than that one, I don’t recall seeing a property on LoopNet that appeared to be a reasonable deal in the last ten years or so. CBRE tends to be similar. Obviously they both sell tons of property as they’re both big companies, so someone must be buying. All of my best deals have been from contacting landlords directly when the property isn’t listed or from distressed sellers. Hopefully someone with a different experience can chime in as well.

Thanks for sharing! I’ll give it a listen tomorrow. Cheers!

I received a survey from a theater that I like in Dallas called Alamo Drafthouse (it's like Studio Movie Grill, basically they serve food & drinks while you watch your movie) that asked how we would feel about things like (a) two ticket minimums, (b) a minimum guarantee on food & drink orders, etc. Basically making sure that it's worth it for them to open again. What do you feel about the questions they asked?

Here it is. --- I was at the mailbox today & a neighbor was passing by. He stopped & asked me if I'd gotten a stimulus check yet & I waved the envelope at him. He started pissing & moaning about how Pelosi is holding up the checks. I said yes, it's a disgrace that she's held up the checks just so she could get Trumps name on them. He started to bristle & I asked him if he'd knew that Pelosi & Trump were having an affair & that she had to be mean to him in public for the sake of the democratic party but that her work getting his name on the checks proves that she really loves him. I think I had him believing it by the end of the conversation. We rarely talk because he's pretty much a dipshit. Hopefully we won't talk again any time soon. Aahahahaha

The ones I’m referring to do include the property. Mostly they are mom and pop type establishments and the sellers are retiring. Typically 40-200 unit type places. Generally not big enough for publicly traded companies to care about. Around here, they are a building on the road, sometimes a few buildings, occasionally fenced in. There are almost no climate controlled units here. I suppose the market can’t support it. That being said, in this case the self storage owner does seem to be at the mercy of the landlord. If he’s had the building for 20 years, its likely paid off so he can hold out if necessary. I guess we’d really need to see the books to know the whole situation.

I’ll just add this for general info. I’ve seen self storage properties selling at 7% to 25% cap rates. Lower rates more recently as the market has heated up (until covid 19). I never bought any because they’ve not been attractive enough for me, but I may have some some errors of omissions.

We don’t have all the details about everything but - - - - $250,000 for 400 units is WILDLY, WILDLY cheap. That’s $625 per unit. Way, way below cost to build. The least expensive per unit cost I’ve seen in my local deals (between Columbus OH and Pittsburgh PA) is $2700 unit. Many are in $4000-$5000 range and going up to $9000 per unit (crazy high). If you don’t buy this, let me know where it is and I’ll buy it.

If the federal and state governments make everyone take a financial pause for 2-4 months until this passes, it’s fine (I guess). If evictions are banned and landlords must pay all of their bills then there will be serious problems for everyone eventually. At a minimum tenants won’t pay now and they absolutely won’t pay a lump sum of 2-4 months rent at the end. They won’t have had a job to have saved up the money obviously. They won’t pay and then they’ll abandon their apartment for a new one as soon as they can be evicted. If everyone pauses it’ll be ok. If the landlords (or one part of the chain) have to bear the brunt of it it’ll be a problem. Ironically, NYC still demands to be paid water, sewage and property taxes. What a bunch of dopes.

minten, I think the fear is that the virus will could get out of control and kill huge numbers of people. After all, it is spreading exponentially. I'd rather the government be harsh and do what they can to limit the spread and damage, than say it is like the flu and not do too much. I am seeing headlines everyday of famous people who have died from the corona virus. It is real, and it seems to kill all kinds of people. We're just starting this in the US. We probably have quite a bit more to go unfortunately.

Where are your apartments located primarily? They're in the northern panhandle of West Virginia - about an hour west of Pittsburgh.