oddballstocks

I blocked it when it came out. Don't even know it's available here.

That sounds like an extremely impressive number for what I understand is a multi-billion dollar fully-hedged cigar butt flipping fund... It's a solid record. I think it's especially solid given that he holds large amounts of cash and his risk aversion. The overall performance numbers (strictly speaking on performance) are good but not crazy good. I believe it's lower now. I know someone who had the numbers. He made the majority of his returns in 2002-2003 and in 2008. He killed it during crashes, but outside of that it's been middling. I'm not really sure they're a cigar butt fund either. I know they're heavy into debt, and heavy into private investments.

Not sure why this is secret: Here's a summary -They work very hard to find ideas -Even when markets fall they're working hard -A rough summary of what happened in the US news and culture in 2018 -A little political summary of 2018 -The world was great when Klarman was a kid in the good old days of six TV stations and "real" news -Thanks to what he considers the best team in the world That's it. Oh and he went long PG&E before the fire and is just holding...

New Zealand Germany Australia used to If you search in a local language you can usually find something. In the US there's Moodys, Mergent, and others.

Just like every BK, equity is wiped out, debt is renegotiated and becomes the new equity. Sometimes you take a haircut on the debt, sometimes a massive haircut. This is slightly different because of the liabilities, but just estimate what their exposure is. Then knock out that much equity from that. How would they pay it etc.. My two cents is that unless you know what you're doing that playing in the bankruptcy pool is a dangerous place to be. Maybe worth a little speculation to learn, but it's a tight knit group of professionals who know the ins and outs. I followed a BK a few years ago and the volume of filings was crazy. It was common for 200-300 pages worth of docs to be filed every day or two. Depositions between suppliers, the bankrupt party etc. It's easier to read vs a 10-q, but it's just a lot of reading. There was a lot of nuance I missed because I didn't understand the process.

Geographically, the east/west corridor within a couple miles north/south of Dodge will be the safer part of town - though admittedly that's a big generalization (north of Cuming / south of Pacific between downtown and 480 are somewhat sketchy). Somewhat related. Worked for a company based in Omaha a while back. While out there come colleagues and I noted how nice of a city it was, no real ghetto's. Our Omaha colleagues said "oh don't go to X.." claiming it was bad. So of course we drove there to check it out. The worst I saw in Omaha was about equal to 'nice' low-end Rust Belt. I've worked industrial jobs in the Rust Belt ghetto, and yeah...Omaha doesn't even come close. Cleveland has some bad areas, areas where people whose cars are practically on blocks are worried about their vehicle being stolen if they turn the other way. Then of course you have Detroit, Buffalo, Chicago...the list goes on. This is all to say that "bad" is subjective. Now if you're coming from Canada, or Europe then the bad parts of Omaha might seem scary. But if you're from anywhere east of the Mississippi you will be fine everywhere. Omaha is a nice place, pretty clean, nice people, a classic Midwest town.

Knew a guy in 2007 who used to day trade on some obscene margin. He'd brag each day at 4pm about how much he made. "Guys, made another $1k today." "Another $800 day." His strategy was a "secret". He was a trading guru right up to October 2007. Then after that he went silent and spoke as if nothing ever happened. I believe the start of the market drop coincided with his wife asking to see a statement and subsequently him being given an extremely short leash by her. For background. This guy cashed out about $90-100k in a merger. I think he lost about $40k, with the remaining $60k he spent it on a boat and new truck. I'm not sure the wife was happy with the boat and truck either, but at least they couldn't vanish from a few mouse clicks. He claimed he didn't need to save for retirement because he'd stike it big one day.... For a while this guy would send links to sites that offered 400:1 margin on crops and currencies....uh..... My rule of thumb is if you need obscene margin (currencies) to make money on a trade then it probably isn't a good trade in the first place.

What if you mortgaged your house, put it in a margin account, and with that account purchased far OTM calls. That seems to be the best way to get HUGE leverage. It also ensures there will be no assets to fight over in divorce court either.

I muted it right away, forgot it even existed! The side benefit is I have no idea who's spouting nonsense on there either. My opinions of people are preserved...

re: banks Banks with strong deposit franchises are going up. Why? Most banks loan portfolios are shorter duration, so as the portfolio rolls every 1-3 years they earn the higher yield. A strong deposit franchise (read business accounts, business loans) means flat or slowly increasing interest expense. Another factor is banks earn more on cash held on Treasuries, which admiditly has dropped to almost zero. On the flip side there are a lot of banks holding MTM losses on their bond portfolios purchased the last few years. Just ignore Comprehensive Income they say...

I'm not sure if this is true with wine too, but in Canada the European beer is taxed much lower than in the US. A Belgian beer in Canada at the Ontario Liquor Store is 1/2 or less compared to the US. At one point I purchased a 1L of Chimay for about $4, whereas the exact same bottle in the US was $13. My guess is imports, tariffs etc. In PA French wine seems more expensive. You can find bottles of Australian, Chilean, or Spanish under $10 with ease, but it's rare for French stuff to be under $10. American wine is consistently under $10, but that's expected. Like everyone else said, find your taste. But if you're looking for a value play... We aren't huge wine drinkers, but enjoy it with certain meals. You can get a Bota Box for $17, which is $5.6/liter, or about $4.20 per bottle. It's table wine that is decent. It's not bad like the cheap box wine, not awesome either, just average, and cheap. We'll buy a box and have a glass with a meal. For my wife and I a box will last a few weeks. I have relatives that crush a box in a day or two, but if you were at that level I'm guessing you wouldn't be asking here. Last thought. In my experience it's really difficult to taste differences in similar tiers of wine. But you can definitely taste a difference between tiers. For example, most $7 bottles are about the same. And a $7 bottle is tough to differentiate from a $11 bottle. But a $7 bottle tastes different than a $19 bottle. And a $19 from $50 and $100 etc. I've had some really expensive bottles and they were spectacular. I'm not sure they were worth the price, but the taste was much more complex and rich vs average bottles.

If one believes in his ability to beat the indices over a long period of time he would want to invest his own money that way. Also LPs would want to know you eat your own cooking. I just don't understand how can someone want to put their money in an index unless they don't believe in their product. That said, the product for most of the investment world sucks and it could make sense to index in your PA, but that means exactly that - you don't believe in the product your selling. If one understands compounding and believes in his ability then he should throw indexing out the window. That is just my opinion. Sure, 100% of hedge fund managers believe they can outperform, but few actually do. Maybe the product you sell to investors is different than what you need yourself. But consider this. Maybe this is someone with a $1m portfolio (unlikely, but whatever, simple numbers). Market does 10% over the long term, they believe they can do 14%, which after 2/20 is about a 11% return for investors. So they beat the market. If this person can do 14% on their funds in 10 years they'll have: $3.7m. Let's say they start with $15m in assets. If we have steady 14% gains a year in ten years the fund will be $38m in AUM. They will make $5m in 2% fees, and $6.8m in their 20% cut. Overall they'd earn $11.8m in a decade, or roughly 3x what they'd earn investing their own account. This is why hedge funds are lucrative. That 11.8m in earnings off the $15m base are from $0. To earn the same thing investing you'd have to have 400% gains a year assuming you started with $1, and with this you start with $0. Why would you waste any time investing for 14% when you can earn 400% returns (based on the above math) by managing someone else's money? This is also why a hedge fund is lucrative if it merely matches the market. You're harvesting insane fees.

Why is it bad to invest in indexes personally? Serves two purposes: 1) You aren't front running clients 2) Your time is focused on client trades, not your own Ultimately if you do well the majority of your wealth will come from returns for clients, which is how it should be. You're on a good path.

Same thing in the financial market. In the case of Nate's grandmother I strongly feel that she was probably talked into a product she should never have had. I personally think the broker is a deceiving asshole charging enormous amounts of commission and I'd be happy if Nate's grandmother could claw back at least the commission. However, are there a moral / judicial grounds for that? Should there be? She probably willingly signed the prospectus and was dutifully informed there 'were risks and past results do not guarantee future results'. To me it's a very grey area and an interesting subject on which I don't have a definitive opinion. Thanks for the read, will take a look. It is interesting. And yes, while it would have been nice to get money back we all handled it from your perspective. She is an adult, she never asked for advice, she signed something. She owned up to it as well, essentially "I shouldn't have done something I never understood." The world is littered with these types. My mother-in-law and her husband just had a weird run-in. They purchased some subscription for anti-virus and the company tried to scam them. Guy got on the phone, asked for bank info, tried to rush them etc. Typical scammer stuff. My MIL realized something was up, hung up the phone called the bank, locked everything down. These sort of things happen fast and catch you off guard. You think you're purchasing a product and then there is a "problem" and they rush you to pay some other way. It exploits every human weakness. I wish there were a way to eliminate this stuff, but I think the best way to eliminate it is education. Make sure people know what they're doing, why they're doing it, and if they stay informed they can avoid traps. In a lot of cases nanny regulation can help, but there are still issues, you need regulation coupled with education. On a spectrum I think you'd find the most egregious examples on the low/high end. Low end because of lack of education, this is check cashing, small time scams on the poor. And on the high end hedge funds because investors have told themselves they're rich, smart and exclusive and there are fund managers who are happy to exploit this. In the middle most are smart enough to avoid the low end scams, and don't have enough coin to be in the high end scams.

This is the best question. I have two examples: 1) My grandmother was swindled by a financial advisor in 2006/2007. Her brother recommended this guy because of all of these great returns. My grandma knows zero about finance. She refinanced her house with a 100% interest loan, and he put all her money in some crazy variable annuity. She ended up in financial hardship from the mortgage and he walked away with $30-40k in commission on maybe $150k in investment. I dug into this guy, found out he had SEC violations etc. Got my grandma's mess cleaned up, put what she had left into a Vanguard balanced fund and cash. She's been fine the last ten years. 2) A friend's in-laws. Guy was a vet, made $250k+ a year living in the sticks. Lived "country rich" (anyone in the Midwest knows what I mean here..) and is always jumping from scam to scam looking for more money. Dividend stocks, options, whatever is hot and on Fox he's jumping into. The guy is retired, and has maybe $500k and has been treading water. Dividend guru will promise 30% a year, guy gets in, does zero or losses and hops into something else. I'm pretty sure his portfolio has stayed flat or lost money since 2008. I'd say misplaced trust and greed. Seniors get taken by this stuff all the time. A family member told me they had all of their life savings with some "mutual fund guru" and it won't lose money because he's all over TV and is "safe". I learned long ago you have to choose, do you value the relationship, or do you want to fix the wrong financial thing? I have picked relationships each time knowing that sometimes very close family members make terrible financial decisions. That's life. But by picking a relationship you open to the door to advice down the line. I have some close family who eventually said "what should I do?" and the answer is almost always "Vanguard index funds, Vanguard balanced funds." With parents/siblings there is a strange thing in getting advice from a sibling/kid. It's really hard for parents, who saw you as a little kid, who changed your diaper to accept that you know more financially. And siblings, well...that speaks for itself. Patience works.

Maybe something like StartupLiquidators? I was talking with someone yesterday who worked for a medium sized company. The company went from tiny to medium quickly by buying a bunch of Adelphia assets for pennies. The way to profit might be by purchasing discounted assets and then putting them to use somehow. I agree, this is a really difficult route to take. But we all know if this crashes and someone does it there will be articles about how smart they were, how they got rich by purchasing stuff for nothing and we'll all think "oh I wish I did that too."

Here is something from 2011: http://retheauditors.com/2011/09/02/the-berkshire-hathaway-corporate-governance-performance/

She is excellent when it comes to forensic accounting. When she identifies a red flag it's worth listening. I've long suspected BRK has some cockroaches, but it's interesting to see someone publicly mention this at Grants.

Had a Board call tonight that started to dry out, did some Googling. Here is the IB user guide: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/tws/twsguide.htm#usersguidebook/getstarted/login.htm%3FTocPath%3DGet%2520Started%2520with%2520Mosaic%7C_____1

To rant on IB. I like the fat client thing, it sort of feels like a cheap BB terminal. The UI seems really powerful, but really unintuitive. For example if I get a quote on a stock it will populate the pinned chart. But the chart never refreshes unless I reply a quote. But the platform has potential. I have kicked around building out some trading app via their API. Which is really well documented vs their fat client. You can’t do this as cheaply with anyone else. Maybe there are tutorials or something. I should look. I’ve been able to buy/sell shares and options so I never looked further.

I use the fat client. I used their web UI once. I’m sure in the web there is some way to generate a report. But I’ve never cared enough to look. And yes, I can figure this out, but it just hasn’t ever been worth it to me. The UI is extremely cumbersome and confusing. And Ben hits on something really important. Forex is dirt cheap on IB. U did a test trade for a thousand euro last week and the commission was inconsequential. Fidelity charges 1%.

If their app didn't suck as much as it does I'd look back at my order history. But I can't figure out how to find it. I know about 50% of the time IB is crazy in terms of pricing. The other 50% it's dirt cheap. I've had some wild commission quotes on there.

Depends on the price. Fidelity is maybe $20 a trade? I don't remember exactly, but it's in that ballpark. IB CAN be cheap, or expensive. IB charges based on the number of shares. If you're buying a few high price shares it's cheap. I went to place a trade on a low price stock, and it was a $150 commission for something like $2k worth of stock. Purchased on Fidelity instead for $5. While IB can be expensive when you do orders for low priced stock, the commision is capped at 0.5% of trade value. So for $2K worth of stock it shouldn't be more than $10... I don't think options are capped

Depends on the price. Fidelity is maybe $20 a trade? I don't remember exactly, but it's in that ballpark. IB CAN be cheap, or expensive. IB charges based on the number of shares. If you're buying a few high price shares it's cheap. I went to place a trade on a low price stock, and it was a $150 commission for something like $2k worth of stock. Purchased on Fidelity instead for $5. If the commission cost is going to sway my investment decision, then I think it's safe to say I don't have a solid thesis or solid upside. There have been times I've pushed around orders to save a few cents and in the end up paying $.03 more or something by dinking around. That three cent upcharge has been multiples of the commission I was trying to be tricky with.

Fidelity does. I've traded on it for years. It's convenient as a North American, the exchange is open at 5pm EST and closes right near midnight. When I was more active in NZ I'd buy/sell/watch while my wife watched TV at night.