dwy000

What do you think he's referring to by the brokers being competitors instead of distributors? Is this the MGA business? Are any large brokers actually holding risk themselves? How much of this is grumbling because the market is softening and theyre looking to keep revenue dollars wherever possible vs a long term change in the business?

Once again, just like the troops in LA and Chicago its largely just political theater and Trump trying to look tough. Florida has 12x the number of illegal immigrants that Minnesota does but nobody is surging 3000 agents to Florida and having multiple ICE leaders on Fox about it. You can safely move Minnesota off the "swing state" designation for the next 20 years. ICE says they're going to have a large presence at the Superbowl. Because we all know illegal immigrants like nothing more than flying into Silicon Valley and dropping $10k to attend the most high profile event of the year. Like most of Trumps activity its more theater than substance.

So youre saying they targeted him for execution because they recognized him from kicking out a tail light?

Whats that got to do with being shot 11 times for holding a cell phone?

Great point on adding back contingents for organic vs total.

Well there have been 3 homicides in Minneapolis this year and 2 of them were by ICE agents. So the best way to get rid of the violent criminals appears to be getting ICE out.

Actually the whole point was that I'm not. Countries are the grand determiner and they are actively determining they need and want trade deals that expand relationships with other regions and shift reliance away from the US. They are the ones announcing them, not me.

The difference is that other countries tend to follow through and execute. And then stick to the deal afterwards. Under Trump, the "deal" (if there actually was one) usually doesnt get signed as advertised, is subject to change based upon a tweet he didnt like and is actioned upon executive orders not congressional approval meaning its short term and subject to change.

They will. They will also broaden trade relationships and alliances with other regions. Neither of which will benefit the US. Look at the reaction to the 45,000 Chinese car imports. That would never have been considered pre trade war and will have long term impacts.

The other thing I worry a bit about is the contingent commissions. Its unlikely we will get a year like 2025 again with almost zero major storms/catastrophes and those contingents helped give a tailwind to revenues and margins - while organic growth still declined. Suspect growth will be much slower and they'll go back to smaller acquisitions.

Its down like 13% over the past year. I think its more than just the shutdown (although that certainly doesnt help). Its the inability to get the financial house in order with growing deficits and endless spending that are not helping economic growth.

Did you listen to the speech? The whole point was that Canada can no longer assume support and protection from the US without being bullied and will therefore need to develop stronger relationships and alliances with other parties. The EU seemed to hear it as well and signed a massive trade pact with India (after years and years of hemming and hawing)

Who defended the civil rights of Maduro? I dont recall anyone anywhere supporting Maduro.

The world is tospy turvy. I actually agree with everything you said.

People are reporting that he didnt come to a full and complete stop at a stop sign once. He deserved what he got then.

Well DHS has lied about everything in this case so far, so that claim has to come with a grain of salt. Even still, leaving your permit at home doesnt justify getting shot 11 times. Using that as an excuse is really scraping for justification of the injustifiable.

I had a chance to listen to the call. Somewhat comforting that they are still planning for organic growth in 2026 to exceed the 2.8% annual number for 2025 even after the poaching and soft pricing in segments. The cash continues to flow. Im slightly higher than @Dealraker on the cash flow multiple because I always subtract out the earn out payments, but even excluding those its a pretty tempting long term valuation.

Timely article. Especially for the Canadians in the crowd. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-27/hedge-fund-lucida-capital-beats-bay-street-with-65-return

Im really not sure AI is a disrupter here that hurts vs a cost management tool that helps. The most susceptible lines are the highly generic direct ones that are already broker disrupted at the lowest end (like auto and home). This is also a product where the fine print really, really matters. Having someone who understands and can customize - and is being paid by the insurer - is a value add. Maybe way down the road it moves up the value chain but for the near future I'm looking for AI to take costs out and improve efficiency more than disrupting the business model.

Have to listen to the call later. Im wondering how much is price vs volume. Are they losing share (ex-acquisitions) or is this the softening of the market that has been forecast for the last 5 years.

I thought of it the other way around. People who refused to wear masks designed to protect the health of the people around them, because it infringed on their freedoms are now wearing masks to hide their identities - which usually means youre doing something the wrong.

Which part of the respecting law and order is 5 agents shooting people who were legally there and not breaking any laws?

BRO earnings out. Market not too happy with them. I was a bit surprised to see negative organic revenue growth. Hope this acquisition hasn't bitten off more than they can chew for a while.

Because ICE is continually targeting citizens and legal immigrants. Is the "paid to engage in this activity" referring to the ICE agents and their bonuses (because the idea that protesters are there because theyre paid is beyond a Fox News joke). OMG, protests on a college campus?? Shock, horror! Thats pretty much every college for the past 200 years.

Pretty sure the cause of death was the multiple bullets that were shot into him. While he was doing nothing else wrong. The entire list is just trying to deflect.