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Kraven

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Everything posted by Kraven

  1. Which brokerage do you use? If you have an account with one that has an investment bank just ask your rep to put you in touch with the equity derivatives desk. You might be able to get someone interested. Most though wont want to face an individual (too much risk including suitability, etc) but for the right price they might go forward. Its worth exploring.
  2. Oh Canadia . . . I knew it! You really are the 51st State. :) Canada is real? I always thought that was just what parents use to scare their kids if they misbehave. Like "if you don't eat your broccoli you will be sent to Canada".
  3. Well, nobody is certain that a party will take place if you drop off a keg of beer at a fraternity house on a Friday. I believe there are others who think like me out there... meaning they will sell FFH to take full advantage of the market correction when it comes. You increase your buying power of cheap equities when you sell Fairfax. Yes definitely. You always hear managers saying how they use "this stock as a proxy for cash", and often it's been Berkshire. I think it's an absurd idea using any stock as cash, but I would say if you were going to do that, then Fairfax is probably a better proxy than Berkshire. We sold our Fairfax in 2008/2009 and bought stuff that was dirt cheap. It was the last thing we sold after we had gone through the cash. But the rational thing to do is to sell something at a discount, only to buy something far cheaper. Buffett made a point of doing this in 1981, when he said he was selling stuff at 3x P/E to buy stuff at 2X P/E. We would not hesitate to do it again! Cheers! Using a stock as a proxy for cash always amuses me. It's like using hamburger as a proxy for steak.
  4. A very underrated album. Don't those lines seem especially well suited to investors? This is the kind of stuff Bill Gross would add to his newsletter for color. Intrinsic value is The Final Cut! I prefer: So you run and you run to catch up with the sun but it's sinking Racing around to come up behind you again. The sun is the same in a relative way but you're older, Shorter of breath and one day closer to death.
  5. This kind of reminds me of the horse handicapping study. I'm referring to the one where handicappers were given a few pieces of data and then asked for their results, then given more pieces of data, etc. Each time they got more data they felt more comfortable, yet their results didn't improve and in fact if memory serves were worse. We all invest differently. You have to do what makes you feel comfortable. I would say for me one of the skills I have that has assisted me the most with investing is the ability to make decisions based on imperfect information and the ability to pull the trigger quickly. That was all honed though from doing it in other contexts. To me, when I read your post I think that the investments that might make one the most comfortable are going to be very well known and "safe" in the sense that it's something like KO. To be honest I've never spent any time on an investment like that, but I can imagine reading and reading and reading and feeling very good about Coke's place in the world. However, other than a few times in the past few decades there hasn't been a time to buy KO, in my opinion, where returns will be anything to write home about. Compare that to some little company that might have had major issues in the recent past and some less savory characters running the shop. It doesn't provide that same comfort level but potentially provides outsized returns. At the end of the day, you have to do what you think is right. Know thyself. If you try to be someone who you aren't, that can lead to bad results.
  6. +1 USAA has been wonderful for me and my family. Anything we can do through USAA we do.
  7. I think it's supposedly based on real life. There was a book by the same name and the claim was that it's autobiographical. No clue how much artistic license was taken though.
  8. Happy Birthday! Another year, another new place that aches. Take it easy, but take it.
  9. The world is so much better with the Winklevii in it.
  10. I voted no. I have dozens of positions and my largest would almost certainly be considered nuisance size by most on the board.
  11. I haven't watched "This is The End" yet, but I surely agree on "Looper": excellent movie, wonderful acting! :) giofranchi I recently saw The Next 3 Days with Russell Crowe and enjoyed it immensely. To my knowledge it didn't get any traction in the theaters when it was out and I had never heard of it until recently. It's a cut above the regular suspense/thriller movie and it's somewhat more "realistic" in the sense that Crowe doesn't play some superman who all of a sudden goes from regular life to taking on bad guys single handedly.
  12. Indeed. I think that seeing most value investors in their swim trunks (or less) would be extremely distressing. That someone sounds very wise. Handsome and charismatic too.
  13. Thank you for the suggestions. All very helpful. So how are others dealing with this? We are down double digits in basis points now! So crazy. I am not sure what will become of all of us. Will the sun rise tomorrow? Will Kanye and Kim have another kid and perhaps point him to the east or south? So many questions, so little time.
  14. A rope. With the market crashing it's pretty clear life is just about over. Not much to live for with all the carnage out there. This is terrible.
  15. Have some fun! Yes, sleep when you feel like it, not when you think you should. Eat food that is bad for you - at least once in a while. Have conversations with people whose clothes are not color coordinated. Make love in a hammock!
  16. I loved the speech so much I ordered the book on amazon. I'm sure it's going to be great. It is. I've read it twice.
  17. What non-essential item do people continue to buy right up to their last nickel? That isn't a rhetorical question, because I don't know. I don't believe there is anything anymore that people will spend their last nickel on. At one time I would have said a mortgage, but that obviously isn't true any longer.
  18. It's impossible to achieve the returns in the screens since they are theoretical, rebalance monthly, don't take slippage and liquidity into account, etc. The Shadow Stock portfolio, however, is a real money portfolio. If you follow the trading guidelines, you have a good chance of replicating the results. Beware that it is a very volatile portfolio, though. Their screens performance is flawed, although in the grand scheme of things it shouldn't matter that much. Their performance assumes that each stock in a screen is purchased at the beginning of the month based on the end of the prior month's closing price. However, the screen itself doesn't come out until the middle of the month (each screen is updated on the 15th day of each month). So they have assumed a purchase based on "future" information. Of course the screens are just representative in a sense and it could be argued that it all evens out over time, but still it feels wrong to me to publish data that would be impossible to actually replicate.
  19. I just finished watching this. I have to say of all these types of presentations I've seen, this was one of the best. A very interesting talk throughout. I was surprised to hear him raise some questions about BRK and speak about it in a critical manner (meaning in a reflective kind of way, not a disapproving way), especially in such a forum. The questions he raise are absolutely issues that exist, but are never discussed. He also speaks about his process, position sizing, selling, etc. All very interesting.
  20. Very nice plug for the Peter Cundill There's Always Something to Do book. I agree that it was a great book.
  21. From an 8-K in April 2012: (emphasis supplied) It's reasonable to assume that there were bids on the table then. Shareholders got details on none of those bids. So, the material fact assumption on every bid does not seem to hold. Ultimately, it's not so much that the bid didn't fructify (that was a risk all holders assumed). It's the impression that there wasn't ever a chance of it happening that has led to a lot of disgruntlement. Best, Ragu Good lord. You have answered your own question. Additional POTENTIAL bidders = someone called him and said "hey Mark, dude, I loved Leo and Kate in the movie Titanic and I've got a lot of money burning a hole in my pocket. I would be thrilled to come down and check out all that stuff (and, heh heh, maybe that nude picture of Kate will be there) and hell, since my wallet is too fat right now I'd love to lighten it up". So no, that kind of potential bid doesn't need to be disclosed. The bid that was disclosed was a NON-BINDING commitment letter that was SUBJECT TO FINANCING. There is nothing nefarious about that, but it is what it is and he said what it is. I am not sure how he could have said it otherwise.
  22. I'd buy neither. I prefer to invest in real, not hypothetical, companies. Even in the land of the hypothetical there is not enough info here to make any kind of decision. To say that a certain kind of investor would buy one over the other does a disservice to the investing process.
  23. I have no position. No, it was not written in legalese. You are incorrect. Words such as "non-binding" and "subject to completion" are clear on their face.
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