Valuebo

Generally I do not. Shorter term options I keep very small percentage of total portfolio. Those wday options were 1.3% of my total portfolio and are pure speculation on short term movements. More than large enough if they really get going. Longer term put options like CRM I buy much more agressively, also because my conviction is a lot higher. I do sell all the way down however. I've found timing way to hard, especially with shorter term options where you can have fluctuations of 100-300%/day.

Sold 40% of my shorter term OTM WDAY options for a 4-bagger. Holding the rest, aiming for 10x. Hit or miss, I walk away with a good gain.

Right now? Anything related to cloud, internet, social, ... :D A more serious response: HRT?

All right, I'll wager that you are completely wrong in that the opposite is most likely to happen and that over the next 10 years BRK will outperform the S&P handily. Willing to negotiate the wager, please PM me if you are up for it! I'm quite sure he is saying the same. ;)

Retarded, ego thing, WHY in all caps. Strong words there! I find shorting the most intellectually rewarding aspect of investing. It helps build conviction like you can't believe. I absolutely have a long bias, but have been short CROX, LULU, OPEN, NFLX, FNGN, CRM, and WDAY over the last seven years. I've learned much more about value and market psychology building these positions than any long positions. I run a very concentrated personal portfolio, so for me shorting is a means to take a position against my longs when I begin to become uncomfortable about the market environment. Not surprisingly, short opportunities become much more abundant in such an environment. Full disclosure, I'm in the red on my shorts over the last six months. However, I have a fairly strong conviction these positions will reap significant rewards over the next 6-12 months, which can then be redeployed into my long positions. +++ Strong words indeed. As you know, I completely agree with your sentiments. IMO two things are generally underestimated: (1) the value of the outcome were you get a ton of extra cash at a (generally) lower valuation. You get a certain return on your closed short or sold options but can then reinvest it again at better market prices than before. You simply profit twice. (2) it's gives you a lot of flexibility on the long side of your portfolio. One should always consider his personal portfolio situation. I am 100% long (and 16-17% short) with almost 75% of my portfolio noted on the NASDAQ. If I assume the NASDAQ as a whole is overvalued it might make sense to hedge some of that risk away. Anyone who disagrees should look at what happened to GNCMA on Friday. I assume you have actually done that for 10+ years? Because of it's excellent members, this forum is one big cluster of survivorship and confirmation bias. However, with almost 2000 members, this is more likely than not rapidly changing.

more GNCMA (actually trade around this position a bit because it is so large) and some WDAY short term options at opening. Options already a double but looking for a tad bit more. ;)

Margins are ok and the market is growing strongly. Wouldn't call the valuation gap absurd. Plus are there other income sources for say google that are relevant?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-31/euro-inflation-at-lowest-in-over-4-years-misses-estimates.html Uh oh...

Too early to tell but the same goes for current momentum stocks à la cloud, social media, ... We could just as easily just see that part of the market correct while the overal market stays level.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/ukraine-crisis-economy-idUSL5N0MP1VL20140328 Price Ukraine pays for Russian gas to rise 80 pct..

How does that help your sex life? Not to mention health, general social life, ...

++++ Well said as always SD. I used to have the same mind set, brought up by an especially frugal father who wrote down every expense to the cent in agenda's. That changed when I found my current SO and started enjoying live more and when I learned about the uncertainties in life. As you said, use it as a servant as you can't take it with you in the end. If I would end up with almost nothing, I honestly believe I would adapt as well. The traveling, being generous to others, eating out, .. all experiences that you can't replace by hoarding all that cash and I wouldn't change them for any amount of money! I'm not a real big spender, but holy hell it is FUN to be free of the shackles cheapness and greed! (Not that I look down on others here that prefer a cheaper lifestyle. as long as it fits your personality, go for it!) I agree with you somewhat. We do splerge on things that are important to us. I pay about $18/lb for my coffee for instance. I justify this by never buying coffee by the cup outside the home (it is inferior anyway) and it is something I enjoy, so I spend the money. Luckily my wife and I aren't wine people, the only wine we buy is the cheap screw on cap variety for cooking. A $1000/bottle of wine has no appeal to me as I wouldn't be able to tell the difference anyway. If you gave it to me as a gift I'd probably cook with it. :) Yes. I wouldn't throw money away on things I don't care deeply about either, wine is one of those things. I believe that's the sweet point; being able to spend enough money on the things you truly enjoy in life while not falling into the trap of careless spending on everything regardless of your personal tastes and preferences.

++++ Well said as always SD. I used to have the same mind set, brought up by an especially frugal father who wrote down every expense to the cent in agenda's. That changed when I found my current SO and started enjoying live more and when I learned about the uncertainties in life. As you said, use it as a servant as you can't take it with you in the end. If I would end up with almost nothing, I honestly believe I would adapt as well. The traveling, being generous to others, eating out, .. all experiences that you can't replace by hoarding all that cash and I wouldn't change them for any amount of money! I'm not a real big spender, but holy hell it is FUN to be free of the shackles of cheapness and greed! (Not that I look down on others here that prefer a cheaper lifestyle. as long as it fits your personality, go for it!)

Does anyone know if you can buy Lukoil directly on the russian stock market (LKOH:RM ?) through IB?

Just go for a more concentrated portfolio if you can't fins enough value. Stretch your resources as stocks get cheaper. Also, it's getting very easy to find decent shorts!

Interesting. What changed your mind? I have a vague understanding that the astronomical increase in credit in China over the past few years (not just absolutely, but relative to their means) has been one of the horses pulling the cart (the global economy). They create all that credit (money) and import things from all over the world. And look at a chart of increasing margin borrowing in the US and stock prices. There is like no room for bad surprises. And the kind of bad surprise that can come out of China could very well be what tips Europe into deflation -- they are so close already. Perhaps even the US. Look at our profit margins... where does all that come from? It's got to be hit pretty hard by something like decreasing demand for our exports from economies in Europe and China. But anyways... I'm going to make about 75% gain over next two years if we muddle through and BAC goes to $22. I'll probably do just as well, perhaps better, if Russell 2000 goes into Great Depression 2.0 mode. So, I'll just eat popcorn and hope for the former (I don't want to live in a depressing time where we have widespread misery). Isn't the increased margin borrowing running parallel with increased stock portfolio values? Obviously there is higher margin borrowing at peaks than at lows when looking at it percentage wise but I wonder how big a piece of the complete picture it is.

And half the board just went into panic mode selling everything not nailed down. ;D I bought more CRM puts a few days ago tho, all OTM long duration.

"Pattern" recognition, jaj! It can suck to be human no?

Yeah I have been in thailand for 4 weeks now and that caught my attention too. Thanks for the info.

Or google tried to up the price for fb... why make it easy on your competitors?

If making profits is irrelevant anyway for these kind of apps; could google or someone else make an app that actually rewards users extremely for using the app / letting friends join? Say a buck / active friend or a saving program for free android apps? Network effect sounds nice and all but this isn't exactly microsoft office. In the end, these things are fads, no matter how many people use them. On what whatsapp is doing right: many do things right but just a few get really lucky as well. Not much of a magic formula for the most part imo.

That is something specific that has caught my attention already in the past as well. He may be right, but that way you can make almost anything look good. +1. If I'm not mistaken, people already said that stuff in early/mid 2012. Two full years later and hey, it might only happen in 2016! And Prem now says he's hedging for a 30%+ decline. 30% wouldn't even get him to break even. After 5years of earnings growth etc, the market's fair value is quite a bit higher as well. If it was 900-1000 back then, it might easily be 1200 now. So is he hoping that the market goes well below fair value (and soon!) to be proven right? Mentioning how right you were in a one time event (2008) shouldn't give you endless credit either imo. That being said, he's likely right to stay hedged now!

It's not a short term game. ;)

+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

yes yes I agree.... btw how exactly do you hedge? with puts on an amount equal to the entire size of your portfolio? Yes more or less but I'm not very precise about it. For instance, yesterday I bought some GME puts despite being well hedged already. Generally I will lower my put position as it increases in value or add to them as they get worthless. Nothing fancy. Despite the market drop today, my portfolio was up slightly today and GNCMA isn't making that particulary easy lately. :) It's typical that this kind of market move happens exactly before I leave the country for 4 weeks. Lukily I'll sometimes have access to Wifi in case we get a decent correction.