Valuebo

Good point. Lately that is all you hear from media, value investors on twitter, etc. I don't disagree with what most are saying but if we end up with a new bear market soon, it will be the most anticipated bear market ever! I was too young in 1999-2000 and before to witness irrational exuberance in the market but something tells me most in the investing community were not screaming that the market top was near. Or maybe I just happen to stumble on all the contrarian stories and follow all the best investors on Twitter! Not saying they are wrong. There just seem to be a lot of smart market timers lately.

GL = Good Luck! ;D Ok, looking forward to reading it!

That's a big plus then. I believe that we have exactly one (decent) investing newsletter company in Belgium, a subsidiary of the only financial newspaper. I wonder what kind of numbers they get. The do both online and print which probably appeals to most readers given the average age. It's not that good and expense for most folks and I wonder why there isn't anyone else trying to get into this. Can you expand a bit more on the business? I understand if you don't want to answer the following questions, I'm just curious! :D What other segments is he implementing in the platform? I assume it will be online only? Will the updates but live or in a daily/weekly/monthly fasion, classic newsletter style? How is he pricing the service and with what vision? With how many contributors is he currently working? 20% of revenues is huge, I assume this is before the pro rata part of the costs is deducted and not fixed? Again, feel free to answer or ignore them altogether Gio. GL!

Thank you, shalab! With the exception of Lancashire, North America is where my stock market investments are… Yet, who knows? As my circle of competence grows, also the geographical scope of the newsletter might follow suit! Time will tell! :) Cheers, giofranchi Do realize that you are increasing competition in stocks like LRE (of which I'm sure you'd always like to buy more at low prices) with this service! Not to mention small caps. At least it could have an impact if this grows to nothing less than a huge success, in which case you win anyway of course... ;)

I have been thinking about this line of business for some time now as well. Recurring revenue, niche market, scalability, decent margins possible, ... Probably quite hard to get traction as a new player though. I think you would at least need some sort of partnership with a national broker, newspaper, finance celeb, .. etc to get things going at a decent pace if you are basically starting from scratch. GL Gio! Keep us posted on how things go. :)

Loved the Lennon quote I highly doubt he said anything like that ("you dont understand life) at the age of 5. I smell BS. ? OT: No real relevant personal experience but my general belief is that people overweigh the risks of renting and underweigh the risks in "owning" RE. There is also tremendous social pressure towards owning a house, in part because it's such a highly visible status symbol. Personally I'm not a fan but we're also not planning to have any kids for example. I believe those preferences will reduce stress levels enough so that I can focus on things like entrepreneurship and investing.

LOL - this way Parsad can't give us a Time Out cause that's "contrapment". Hehe! We're some smart-ass pawns! Not a bad idea in general but maybe not for this forum. Things shouldn't be made too easy for readers. This communtity is extremely rewarding if you put in the effort to track many topics and posters over the years. We already have newer members asking others to summarize whole topics (see shld thread for an example) with tons of information à la "should I short this stock or go long?". Adding easy shortcuts on what are already in fact summarizations of investment theses etc would only attract a crowd that isn't willing to do at least some decent DD imo.

Hamsterdam baby! But seriously, I agree with Liberty and others. Dont make a specific sub forum or changes are you'll make it worse!

As Ray Kroc used to say: "quality, service, cleanliness and value!"

Correct Sanjeev. But systems or not, a few days ago they still managed to accidentally give me a free extra latte coffee and they didn't charge for a brownie. :D Did anyone read that book on starbucks, Onward? Bought it for £3.59 recently but haven't read it yet.

I would add Grinding it out by ray kroc himself. You read it in a day. Maybe the e-myth revisited (or revised?) as well but pretty basic.

Ok Parsad, good points. Thanks. While others (hell, I do it!) include all past returns as well, that doesn't mean it's correct. I just think it's odd for firms like Fairfax, Leucadia and Berkshire because their size will make sure they will never get back to 25%+ CAGR. That is a problem others simple dont face. But I must admit that all are aware of this fact and quite articulate about it too. Nonetheless, 15% CAGR is steep, especially when you are thinking about the next 15-20 years and not just the next few years. Your last sentence might hit the nail on the head... We'll see! I know for a fact that this is one of the many flaws I personally have and I rationalize it by saying that I have plenty of income that "needs" a place to go. I should ask myself what's wrong with cash more often given the 40-45 years of employment I (hopefully) have left... Opportunties will always be around.

They did amazing until about 2000, in part helped by the incredible bull markets in both stocks and bonds. The last 10 years were pretty lukewarm in comparison to all that. I'm not taking PW's word on his 15% BV growth target. He's already behind badly since he said it and the math is getting harder and harder to get there if he wants to make up for the last few years! Idk, maybe he increases BV by 30% a couple of times the next few years but I don't see how with the way he has positioned Fairfax. Also, if it's pretty hard now, how will it work out with double the capital. Miniature privatizations won't cut it and "going big" (although relatively it's not that big) in things like BBRY means a lot of risk that it goes the other way at one point. I want to believe but I can't and I'd rather hold cash than Fairfax now. Also one thing I (think I have) learned: if you shoot for a specific return, aim higher. Don't bet on your exit being great. If you want 15% CAGR I'd look out for 20-25% CAGR. Not LRE at exactly that point at which it gives you 15% if they achieve the same returns. Same goes for FFH. At some point they slip up (or catastrophe etc) and it's then that you want to act.

I'm talking about BV growth per year. That was 180% in year 1. The first 5 years gave close to a 10-bagger in BV growth. How is this relevant for today?

+1 7.5% or even 15% arent garenteed just because you have a business model, or are happy with lumpy returns. I think Al's message missed the mark.... Well, historically they have achieved a 9.4% annual return on their investment portfolio… I thought 7.5% was conservative enough… But it seems I live in a bubble!! ;D ;D PS Actually, I don’t need a 15% compounded increase in BVPS… My firm will probably continue to post operating profits for many years into the future… (of course, this might be another bubble of mine!! ;D ;D) Therefore, a 10% compounded annual return from its stock market investments will probably be more than enough! To achieve such a result Fairfax must get a 4.5-5% annual return on its investment portfolio… practically half its historical result. That’s I think a good margin of safety… Of course, a good margin of safety, if you find yourself in bubble territory, might still not be enough!! ;D ;D giofranchi I can perfectly live of my income as an employee but that doesn't mean I have to be happy with lower returns in investments because it's just an "extra". I have my questions with the way Fairfax (or PW) presents the returns they achieved and the way Prem pounds the table about it in the annual letters. For example, is it correct to implement the first year of operations when that year achieved 180% return? Look at the CAGR when you remove the first few years (because those are irrelevant now anyway) and you get a clearer picture. Same goes for the last 10/15 years. It's just a lot more accurate when looking for future returns.

I know that Buffett owned one in his early twenties if I'm not mistaken.. Didn't turn out ok.

Read the last few pages for the answer. ;D Buy the cheapest ones regardless of yield.

Haha amazing. Would love to see some further analysis in all the names summed up. Gratz to whoever got it right!

Lol.. But... : Sanjeev then said: You want us to figure it out. Why else would you have posted this?! Yes, I do want you to figure it out...but I can't make it a "gimme". The only clue is that some of you are on the right track and some of you aren't. Cheers! Packaging?

Troubled retailer is likely to be a 9-foot hurdle so unlikely. No, at worst it's a stable earner without growth or (close to) net-net that at most hit a temporary setback or is misunderstood. Relevant posts made by Sanjeev: That would be awesome! North-American and listed. Maybe! ;D Already almost 10%, but if it gets cheaper we may max out near the 25% self-imposed limit. Cheers! You want us to figure it out. Why else would you have posted this?! Yes, I do want you to figure it out...but I can't make it a "gimme". The only clue is that some of you are on the right track and some of you aren't. Cheers! I'm planning some consulting gigs, presentations and then I will write a book about the idea..."You're Welcome Planet Mars"...how one man's investment idea will save the entire solar system! But the numbers I'll present regarding the investment will run from the lowest price I bought at to some arbitrary point in time where the stock has done very well, and then I'll use some formula to extrapolate how my returns dwarf Warren Buffett's returns. Cheers! Btw this post could refer to 2001: A Space Odyssey, which then could refer to my pick: IBM (via HAL9000...). JK! I know it's a reference to Harry Long's book... I'm biased because of my own IBM position so ignore this. :D Edit: It couldn't really be a reference.. I thought the monolith was found on mars, not the moon. ;)

That would be my guess. And suddenly it's up 5% on higher than average volume today.... :D I wouldn't have a clue from what has been said in this topic but I'm very curious... A very wild guess assuming you aren't not telling us because of liquidity reasons: IBM. Reasonable shorter-term downside in case of market sell-off, good per share growth, moat, cheap, good capital allocation, Buffett pick, ... Exactly the kind of stock in which one can put plenty of money while still being able to sleep at night. Shorter term it won't provide incredible upside either (50% at best) but in this market that might be just fine. Anyway, good luck Sanjeev!

+1 While I don't know how hackers got hold of Sanjeev's password, I would also recommend using a password management application like, for example, 1Password. They help you remember all those unique passwords: http://alternativeto.net/software/1password/ This image is also relevant: https://xkcd.com/936/ Thanks Guys! Not sure if it was a hack or an email spoof emulating an email with my address, since there was no indication of any activity in the account...deleted emails...etc. Regardless, passwords have been changed and I probably will use the 2-step verification. Cheers! So how do we know this is really you? :) Good question! I'm eating a burger and market prices are rising...especially SHLD. Who else could make that happen?! Cheers! Haha. :D Hope you get your account back fast Parsad, that must really suck. I assume you also rely on it for your business. Thanks for the heads up.

That probably shouldn't be surprising. Maybe there's a way to price this in your calculations for position sizing but I wouldn't know how directly... Thanks for your quick reply. ;) The idea of vanilla stocks is likely interesting enough tho. Thanks again, food for thought.

Ha, interesting. I have been thinking about something like this. Why not make it more interesting: - 3 - 5 top managers picked, from each 3 - 5 biggest positions; - leaps or other means of leverage where possible but no margin; - maybe weighted according to what the position did between the point the position was bought and the release of the report; - weighted according to other factors like position size in the portfolio of that manager, the times a certain position got picked, ...; - rules to roll over leaps to later expiration dates; - Maybe some cash to average down under strict rules etc. I would really be interested to see what such a portfolio of say 15 leveraged positions would do. Would it get killed sooner or later?

If I'm not mistaken Harry Long at one point decided that "the board was not worthy of his knowledge" after which he deleted all the topics he had created (SURW was one. EBIX another?). That on itself was a shame... After that, I believe he came back shortly. Maybe then he got banned?