jeffmori7

The problem I have with LED lights and any longer life product is that for most of the people, it is difficult to believe that they last that long. It is OK to pay more now, but only if I don't have to pay again in 2 years because finally, like I tend to observe with the CFL, they doesn't seem to last what they are supposed to... Liberty, so far, do you had to replace some of them? I know they have not been on the market long enough to confirm their long life expectancy, but do they perform accordingly to the specs so far among for people who have bought them?

To take into account the mispricing of the warrant, let's say that W is the current warrant value, and W_i is the intrinsic warrant value, W_i = P-S. we can say dW=W-W_i, my previous formula would become : A=(W/(S-dW)) * D. A mispricing with a higher than intrinsic value warrant increase the appreciation needed to overcome the dividend inclusion to the totsal performance while a warrant value under intrinsic value decrease the appreciation needed to equal the performance including the cumulative dividend.

I calculated it like this : P : the stock price today D : the amount of dividend being paid A : appreciation of the stock price W : Warrant price, let's assume W=P-S S : Strike price So what you want is basically to solve (P+D+A)/P = (W+A)/W To get the relationship between the dividend overall payment D and the stock price appreciation A. And you get to A=W/S * D Of course I don't calculate a cost of leverage here, but I'm comparing, including a dividend, basically what I need for a warrant to win over the common, assuming the warrant is well priced here. That is basically what Racemize was saying sooner, but without calculating an assumed dividend or final price.

Guys, in the end, don't you think that what we have to guess from now on is : Will the appreciation of the stock price be more important than the total amount of dividend being payed over the 5 years by a fair amount ? If so, the warrants wins anyway, no matter the time value of money I would think. At more than 1.2 times the dividend (which is the warrant to strike price ratio) in stock price appreciation, I think you win in all scenario.

Yeah, I'm also donating to Nature Conservancy, the canadian version, they are far more efficient than Canadian government to protect our land : http://www.natureconservancy.ca/en/

A really interesting article on self-driving car, and some great insights on Google X : http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/11/25/131125fa_fact_bilger?currentPage=all

BMW and Solar City have partnered for the new i3: http://www.solarcity.com/bmw/

So does that mean that he bought a lot of SHLD this year? Or he reduced other positions?

There were some interesting discussions in another topic about this. Here is a link I posted back then: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/anyone-think-rental-cars-(and-possibly-firms-hertz-avis-etc)-are-the-future/msg132542/#msg132542

Thanks for sharing. So usually, when we look at Berkshire ortfolio, be it in the annual report or on a website like dataroma.com, does it include holdings from the pension funds?

I don't get why a new discussion group would change anything. Anybody is intelligent enough not to read a thread he is not interested in or to not answer to comments he finds inappropriate. Artificially displacing where is located a thread won't change anything, or am I wrong? And personally, following the thread where there were a lot of discussions about that, I find the tone has changed on the board and people are being more polite so far on those tech threads, no? And for me, there was just one or two suspect remarks on the Twitter thread, but nothing to call the firefighters for! No hard feelings Val9000.

Will not happen. Even if Schulz passes away or something, it will take a decade to even make a dent, and over two decades to supplant them. I would like to see the margins at those stores, and exactly how much cash they are generating. As well, Starbucks controls the amount of premium coffee being developed in the world through their huge orders to producers, and the moat is not about to be hurt by small retail shops that are sprouting up. It's like saying that Walmart's buying power is going to be displaced by retailers in certain markets that are doing reasonably well. Won't happen. The only chains that could hurt Starbucks, are the ones that already have a huge footprint and excellent brand recognition...McDonalds, Subway, etc. But two things will stop them: - They cannot get enough premium coffee from farmers already producing for Starbucks, so they may be able to provide one or two blends of premium coffee, but nowhere near the variety of beans that Starbucks can, nor the same variety of mixed handmade drinks unless they change their operations. - If they try to offer that same variety, they may end up being distracted and hurt existing moats in the food/sandwich category. We have some very good chains and independent coffee stores, on par or better than any in Seattle and San Francisco. They do ok competing head on, but none will displace Starbucks...ever...at least in my lifetime! Coffee culture is huge here...in fact, the first Starbucks stores outside of Seattle opened in Vancouver some 25+ years ago. I'm a hard-core coffee aficionado for over 15 years and watched the market grow here and in the Pacific Northwest, as I spend a lot of time in Seattle. I drink daily, both the premium stuff and non-premium stuff, but I'll tell you...I go to Starbucks every time I want consistent, premium coffee or mixed drinks. Too much inconsistency in the smaller artisian shops, and not enough variety in the other chains. Lastly, eventually when any competitors start doing well or start getting into trouble in any particular region, Starbucks will just buy them out like they have in the past. Cheers! Cheers! And what about a Tim Hortons in Canada, who reach for different customers? They seem to resist well to Starbucks?

The problem is when the owners are the one buying out everyone else..

Does it imply that the portfolio from last quarter was entirely sold? Or we are adding to that?

Who the f**k is Bernard Mooney?! ;D How many companies has he turned around. Cheers! Yeah, see what I mean? Ok, I get your point. Cheers! Sorry guys, I just wanted to share an observation from a respectable writer in Montreal that I respect and thought his point of view was interesting. I know it is not an analysis from me with data, but just a share opinion, and I understand Sanjeev answer about how it is easy to complain from afar and I agree. But valueInv, I also think that some people hear do care about hearing different point of views, even if they are just opinions, as it could help them forge their idea. So what can I understand from your laconic observation? Could you at least try to explain your point as I don't get your remark. Thanks in advance.

In french : http://www.lesaffaires.com/blogues/bernard-mooney/mooney-le-probleme-avec-prem-watsa/561730#.UkGe64bTt8E Mooney accusing Watsa of being arrogant and not able to recognize an error, in part due to past succes...

Thanks Beerbaron. For the air source heat pump, does it imply an already installed central heating system, where you replace the electric furnace only? Because the problem is nowadays, they build a lot of house without air ducts in Quebec, using only radiators...

It is probably really dependant of your location and your electricity cost. Here in Quebec, it is cold in winter, so most of the energy is used for heating, so GSHP would be great, and air conditioning is also useful in summer. But there is so few incentives here because electricity is at 5 and 7 cents per Kwh... Ir source GSHP is already a efficient way to decrease consumption, but in large cities, it produces a lot of noise and reject heat (like AC in general), so large scale geothermal is more attracting IMO.

I agree with you guys they are not the same..I was not implying that. But as a consumer, should I decide to invest in a geothermal heat pump system or into installing solar panel on my roof? How will I get a better return on my investment? If I do both, the upfront cost will be quite high, except if I can pay with the savings a la Solar City or something. Without looking at precise numbers, I tend to think that fixed costs are higher for the GSHP than for solar, but I might be wrong here. Hence, if you don't have a large enough house, GSHP may not be worth it.

We talk a lot about solar roof, but how does it compare with a geothermal heat pump? Is one really advantageous over the other? I think for new building, geothermal make a lot of sense, but less sure about retrofit. You need to have already a heat pump system in place to benefit easily from a geothermal system I would think, as opposed to a solar rooftop that would probably fit on most building. I should look into that, but maybe someone has already done the calculations? Any thoughts?

An interesting study on self-driving cars and the broader implications of this technology: http://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf

What? You just bought Harry Long's book! :) Maybe Sanjeev finally decided to buyout Fortress ???

Thanks for the link. There was also a second part to this article, pointing at the benefit : http://grist.org/climate-energy/how-can-we-boost-distributed-solar-and-save-utilities-at-the-same-time/

Thanks guys for recommandations. Concernant classics, I tried Don Quixote last year, but it is hard, I have read only the first part so far! I must admit that Harry Potter was for me a really good read, especially book 3,6,4.

Speaking about fiction books, Liberty was asking me on another thread, i will rebound here! For those into fantasy and medieval story, I know a lot knows Game of Thrones because of the TV series, but I suggest you to read the book series, entitled A Song of Ice and Fire, by George R.R. Martin. I read mostly SF and fantasy, my favourites books ever would be : 1984 by Orwell, Hyperion by Dan Simmons, Ender's Game by Card, some of Iain M.Banks and Vernor Vinge, Sarantine Mosaic by Kay just mentioned previously on this thread, Robin Hobb with the Farseer and Tawny Man series. A great entertaining book for me is still Le Comte de Monte-Cristo from Dumas. I still need to read more classics and I wold like to hear you Gio on your must-read classics.