BargainValueHunter

How much of the call is intrinsic value and how much is time value?

Are you kidding? :) Everyone is starting a hedge fund!! Get in on the fun and excitement!! http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/08/07/8382584/index.htm (But seriously...as I've said before, the mainstream financial press is an invaluable source of contrarian insight. If you do the opposite of what is hot you will win more than you will lose.)

http://dealbreaker.com/2011/10/stripper-turned-hedge-fund-manager-smoking-the-competition/ ::)

Seems like Mr. Bass is the new Dr. Michael Burry if Michael Lewis has his way http://www.gurufocus.com/news/147224/is-kyle-bass-the-new-john-paulson That is a pretty good trade.

I feel you will go nuts trying to time the EXACT BOTTOM or EXACT TOP. Investing is easiest when you don't try to out think yourself. With over 4000 securities to choose from WHO CARES what "The Market" is doing? Times like this are beautiful, of course, because the selling gets highly profitable for value seekers but even '07 Q2 had some nice bargains. Pick the best companies trading at the lowest prices relative to future earnings then go play golf or whatever. Or... Drive yourself mad trying to be a wizard making some sort of magic investing potion...whatever floats your boat.

What's funny is this is EXACTLY what Berkowitz said would happen. It hasn't played all the way out yet but a few more moves like today could send this stock towards $90.

I've noticed value guys (and gals) like us tend to assume too much. But, then again, ALL kinds of investors assume too much! Our thing seems to be, "I'll wait until stocks REALLY start to fall apart". The problem is Mr. Market is completely unpredictable. Even on March 6, 2009 people were saying, "this isn't it I'll wait until the market REALLY starts to fall". What I like to do is wait until a stock is OBVIOUSLY undervalued then I buy a half position. It it goes up, I move on. If it falls some more I buy another half position. I figure I can be too early, watch the stock fall more, then hopefully, watch it rise back through my purchase price and head north. If I wait until the ULTIMATE BOTTOM (which I won't recognize until months after it hits) I'd probably end up buying the security HIGHER than if I had just bought when it hit my "obviously undervalued" target. That is one of a million strategies but I like it. I'd love to hear other people's buy strategies. ...and to answer your question: I think people are assuming the US and the EU are attached at the hip and once they realize that they are two different regions with two different situations the S&P 500 will begin a bumpy upward trend that may turn into a small bull run of a quarter or two. But we will just have to wait and see, I guess.

My hot stock buddies who were in heaven in '99 and '06 are scared sh**less right now but I am loving life! Each huge leg down is allowing me to deploy my cash in ever more profitable ways and they think I'm nuts!! Anybody else getting laughed at by the chasers?

When Steve Jobs passes (hopefully, no time soon) AAPL will flounder just like after he was fired. He is the heart and soul of the company. Warren is also the heart and soul of Berkshire but he has pretty much built a free cash flow machine that will not need a groundbreaking innovation every few years to stay on top. Despite the obvious hurdles it will have to clear in the next few years, AAPL is like the hollywood movie star of stocks while BRK is seen as either boring or controversial (due to Warren's political views). It seems a lot of people would rather be cool than rich...

lol...I was trying to be humorous. Sorry but sarcasm sometimes doesn't come across well over the 'Net! :) The blowout in the EK CDS is a pretty big clue that the common is toast. The bonds may be another story, however.

This sector has been slaughtered over the last few weeks. There are no moats or predictable cash flows but when I see stocks with 20 - 30 days of "buy to cover" short interest I start to look around. Anyone else seeing anything of value in solar?

Kodak may FINALLY be cheap enough to take a look at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/kodak-said-to-weigh-bankruptcy-filing.html?cmpid=yhoo

Interesting considering the SHLD squeeze from yesterday... http://www.outfoxthestreet.com/2008/10/is-sears-holdings-shld-next-vw.html

I hear you but I would think that maintenance would factor into the purchase price. I would think that a buyer would consider the annual return on the property and discount the cash flows to reach a desired price...then offer at least 20% below that.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/113579/hawaiian-paradise-ghost-town-kukuiula-marketwatch

Thanks for the head's up!!

Is a SHLD short squeeze taking place? http://www.google.com/finance?q=shld http://seekingalpha.com/article/296062-is-sears-holdings-finally-turning-into-a-reit?source=yahoo -also interesting...

Not much Warren can do right now if he wants AIG. He would either have to do a deal with the Govt. or Berkowitz and I don't see that happening anytime soon.

I hope Mr. Ballmer at Microsoft is watching this...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295747-are-japanese-businesses-worth-more-dead-than-alive

So, Flying Arrow, how is this working out for you so far?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-banks-account-96-250-trillion-outstanding-derivative-exposure-morgan-stanley-sitting-fx-de

bill gates does not believe in leverage. most of their cash is overseas and can't be used to fund the buyback. they just spent $8b on skype. they aren't price sensitive buyers. they calculate the IV of the company and as long as it's below they buy. one good thing about people losing faith in them is that they can buy at low IV. Who is the ultimate decision-maker Gates or Ballmer? They produce floods of cash but allocate it in less than supreme ways.

Microsoft seems to be slowing the rate of buybacks... http://ycharts.com/companies/MSFT/shares_outstanding#zoom=10 Can ANYONE explain why MSFT won't use the cover of a bear market (S&P 500) to announce a MASSIVE buyback? They could borrow $50 BILLION @ 2-3% and retire ~ 1/3 of public shares. (yeah, I know...I got that from Tilson) But is their anything they would do that would be better for shareholders because they have a tragic history of overpaying for acquisitions.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903791504576587141377384636.html When you take the total amount of space available throughout their network of real estate holdings, the geographic locations and the *possibility* that this may be the trough of the cycle (if you take a long term view), this might be a shrewd strategy to extract value for shareholders.