Sweet

Why is it extremely arrogant to assume we could be alone in the universe but not to assume that there is other intelligent life?

I refer to him as Bro Rogan for a reason. I like listening to Joe, but he does indulge in the biggest pile of rubbish. I watched his show about the Lost City of Atlantis where his guest claimed that the Richat Structure in Mauritania is (or might be) Atlantis. Joe found the evidence compelling, he may even referred to it as 'overwhelming', but it was a best weak in my view. As a layman to the topic I could think of many alternative explanations that are more simple and more likely. I sure would like the story to be true but the so-called evidence was incredibly light I felt. Yet if you listened to Joe you would think it was case closed. That said, Joe is on the money about a lot of things too. It's easy to pick on the parts that are stupid because there are so many of them over the years. He has reigned in a lot of his wild views.

These are very different examples. The earth was proven to be spherical long before we went into space, it was deductible through observation and maths a long time ago. There is no comparable proof that aliens exist, and the hearings might only raise the probability of seeing an alien if aliens are actually here. If aliens aren't actually here then the probability that we see aliens are exactly as they were before the hearings. It doesn't follow that the probability 'definitely just went up' then.

The maths isn’t that clear either. Posted a video below which I stumbled on a few months ago, it goes into some of the maths.

Aliens being here is not a 0 but there are so many other things it could be.

Lol, if it’s Canada you’re just F’d

The only way that renting makes sense is if you are renting a dump or a single bed room. I did the single bed room in a house for a decade when I worked in the city. Even then I’m not sure that the money saved and invested really outperformed by much, if at all. It probably would have been better to put suck up a mortgage and own my own home. More space and enjoyment that’s for sure.

Who thinks they can live in an EFT lol? I’d guess that nearly everyone on the board has at least one home. Anyone I know who has real estate is constantly running after tenants and property fixes etc. I think you’re forgetting how much more relaxing it is to have your money parked in a fund… even if it is a REIT. Strange for a guy who has previously said being able to relax and have fun in life is very important to you - I agree with you btw.

Doesn’t mean he needs to keep raising the rate. Inflation has fallen significantly. To keep raising the rates at this point whilst inflation trends in the direction he wants would be silly IMO.

Strange, why sell so much shares when the company is cannibalising so much outstanding shares? Thanks for info.

How is this trading at a PE of 6? What’s the bad news story?

It’s limited to the SP-500

A thread for things which are interesting but which don’t warrant their own thread. Might even produce actionable ideas. Here is one - I’ve not verified the data: Some of these companies I’ve never even heard of.

How many stocks are on that list and how well do you know them?

There is a difference between production and supply. That Saudis for instance can produce at 10 million a day, supplying 9 million to the market, and putting 1 million in storage. The Saudis have at least 150 million barrels of storage capacity which is currently empty.

economy must not be doing so well

You can be one of the best analytical minds in the game, but if aren’t an optimist you are far less likely to enter a position. Pessimism kills returns, if you think you’re smart enough to call market tops and let good opportunities pass you by you’ll probably not do as well over the longer term. Optimism needs to be balanced by being humble though. Yes there are opportunities but how well does the average member here (myself included) really know about the companies they buy? For my part I can’t buy a name I don’t recognise. Part of my goal in posting here, apart from meeting others, is to expand my universe of knowable stocks. I probably need a few months at a minimum of knowing a company to feel comfortable enough to buy. Many others here are not like that I expect. Which helps explain my current cash problem, the number of stocks I know about and would feel comfortable buying is small.

My own personal view is that the composition of Berkshire is increasingly not the product of Buffett and Munger. Apple is their biggest position, where revenue seems to have stalled and it’s at 30+ yield to market cap. This is my feeling too. I don’t see the point in buying something unless it’s a lot better than the risk free. This is how I would prefer to be. I think it’s easier to add to positions you already own here than to open a starter though.

I doubt that’s what he means… maybe I’m wrong though.

I have part of my money in Schwab and I think they pay 0.45% which is a bit of a joke. If they don’t change that soon I’ll move it out to IBKR which is paying 10x more.

I find myself with a very large cash position for the first time in about 5 years. I’m not sure the exact percentage but I’m somewhere between 60-70% cash right now. My large cash position is not by design, I exited some positions earlier in the year and haven’t found anything to buy. I’m not bearish on the market, yes I think there are areas of the market which are expensive, but there many which aren’t. I could buy bonds but IBKR are offering 4.5% on cash held in USD so I don’t see much point in going down that route. I can see areas of potential opportunity from rising rates and reduced money supply but nothing I want to pick at yet. I can’t be the only one sitting with more cash than they are comfortable with?

I don’t know if 5% increase in rates breaks anything more but I am sure that a 5% risk free rate brings down valuations. I don’t get the doomers though, always calling tops and predicting the next recession.

Sold all my energy positions yesterday, it was a good ride but for the first time in 7 years I haven’t a dime in O&G. I first entered in 2016 and after initially doing well the position did nothing for 2 years and even dropped below my entry. Covid came along and I allocated 100% of my port to energy around April / May 2020 and sold out over time. I would have preferred to exit everything last summer but nobody can pick tops. I see some room for energy prices to run, 50% upside maybe for some companies if they do well, but the apathy for the sector is extreme and the easy gains are over. There are also so many dog shit companies run by piss artist managers. Management matters so much in this space in terms of balance sheet management, and ironically management can also do nothing when all the shale idiots are pumping like mad. Demand is strong but I don't buy the narrative of a super cycle driven by a lack of supply being imminent. And as Biden showed, there is enough SPR around the world to push down prices. Of course, I will buy into energy again if the bottom falls out the market I just don't see that happening short of a price war. As someone said in this thread a while ago, you rent O&G stocks, you should rarely if ever own them.

He’s being a total arse. Also, what a silly way to spend your life.

By no means an expert. Iranian oil is already back on the mark on the market to a large degree. US shale is producing a lot of light oil that isn’t classified as crude, it’s likely being blending into oil. Russian production has not been dropping much, they found a new home for their oil. Venezuela is the wild card for me, no idea what happens there. I think the recent news show that it’s not really demand that’s causing softened sun price but once again too much supply.