Sweet

Important to keep some perspective. As my father says ‘you can’t take the money with you’.

This is the longest inversion ever and no recession yet. Typically the recession, if it comes, happens a few months after the inversion.

Miners generally or do you have specific mining companies in mind? Generally I think they are terrible companies run for the benefit of the founders or board members and not for average shareholders. I remember looking at the shares outstanding for a range of companies in GDX and GDXJ long ago and it was just constant dilution back then. I’m sure there are ok companies but the industry is a hard pass for me.

Saw on Twitter yesterday I think that the yield curve has been inverted for nearly 600 days.

The paywall keeps the riff-raff at bay, the message vindicates the paywall approach as that’s exactly the type of person we don’t want on the board. And Parsad you are a good steward, not too strict with the moderation but strict enough to stomp out bad behaviour. It’s a good balance.

Thanks. I saw that too on their website. I think it’s from the 90s? Not bad.

What has been his performance over time? Some interesting rules of thumb in there - liked the idea of fcf yield +growth will equal your return roughly. Disagree with some of the industries he says away from - insurance and banking I think are more predictable I think, although there are times you need to hold onto your ass.

How does thinking in risk-adjusted terms help Berkshire shareholders outperform? Unless you the investor uses leverage to buy Berkshire on margin to risk match the SP-500 what difference does it make to say risk-adjusted? OK, I get it, close to retirement, more stable business etc... what of the rest of us not close to retirement just looking to compound as fast as possible?

I don’t think owning the broad market at these multiples will return 10% per year either. However I am relatively sure that the permabears will perform worse, barring a major correction. I do think places will perform significantly better than 10%, I’m thinking areas where new technology will revolutionise.

Depends what your goals are and your age. 5% is a low return but it is a return and not a loss. For people on the cusp of retirement it makes sense. For others, and I’d put myself on this category, it’s something to own to tick over until you find something you can swing hard at. For those thinking they can retire on that - good luck.

Great insight.

My view - Western countries should have been involved to a much greater degree and from much earlier. I think the West should close the sky in Ukraine to Russia jets. They should be operating artillery, operating drones, destroying weapon depots etc. No Western infantrymen on the frontline right now, Ukrainians should be the front line soldiers, it's their country and if they want it to remain free they should fight for it. But most of everything else on the table from the West. I'm OK with Russia keeping what it has if it is peace, and lasting peace, whatever. Russia should be prepared that Ukraine joins the EU, or even NATO for that concession.

Good luck trying to make sense of stocks using a 10% discount rate. Valuation is largely subjective, and I think it is fairly clear that very very few people are using a 10% discount rate, and haven't been for many years. My own mantra, posted in another thread, is that if you feel the urge to crank numbers into a DCF to check if it is a good investment, its almost certainly not a good investment. Buffett talks discounted cash flows, Munger said he has never seen him using DCF model even once. I do believe though there is no sense investing in a company at PE 25 with little to no growth, when you could just buy a treasury yielding 5%. I do expect valuations to rerate over time especially if GDP growth slows, but I would be surprised at a large crash.

I'm pretty sure that Seth Klarman's record has sucked ass since around 2010. That's 15 years nearly and he is one of those people vinod is talking about.

Things are not cheap, in some cases downright expensive, and I am having trouble finding anything I want to buy, but I don't see a bubble. That's not to say things cannot come dramatically lower sharply, because they might, but nobody can know.

Could be an energy guy?

Isn’t an appropriate benchmark the Nasdaq 100 then?

When you have kids a job that just throttles your free time is the worst. You never get that time back.

Can you let us know who the manager is in a few days? I don’t know who this is.

I wouldn’t invest based on these numbers.

I don't believe that Trump could not have gotten these companies released had it truly been a priority.

They are great businesses but no reason to think they will be released from conservatorship anytime soon.

Looks like the rise in capital requirements for big banks is going to be cut: https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/dimon-led-bank-ceos-to-fend-off-tougher-capital-rules-b647756d#

No question there is further pain, write-downs on property, defaults etc. However vacancy rates are not staggered consistently among properties, it’s the old commercial buildings that have highest vacancy rates, new ones less so. As ever quality will matter. This article highlights some of the differences and where the squeeze points are: https://www.brookfield.com/news-insights/insights/misunderstood-us-office-market This could be a slow car crash that continues for a couple of years. The refinancing of debt seems to be an average of 5-10 years and many of those loans will need refinanced at higher rates. So I get it. It’s not a slam dunk. However I suspect there is good money to be made at these prices. A 50% + drawdowns in any sector is rare and it’s worth considering whether the pervasive doom and gloom is justified. I mentioned above, some of these REITs are trading at 08/09 lows. Is it really that bad out there? My back of the envelope bull case: - office work is not dead even if wth is here to stay at some level - excess inventory will get wound down and the supply problem will fix itself in time - companies will default and fail but overall I think we will muddle through No position btw. Talking out loud.