gfp

good article, thanks

Man, I installed the Louisiana version of a favorite model of shower head for a shower my wife uses a lot and she said it was too much. I swapped it for a California version of that shower head and she likes it much better. Louisiana was too much! California with the little silicone tricks they use to trick you into high pressure was just right

I will just say that today's "face ripper rally" - as my lovely wife phrased it this afternoon - should not make people more bullish. I'm back to 25% cash on average at the close and it feels good

I just hope mr. Bradstreet wasn't at the Fairfax India annual meeting and was at work buying 20 year treasury bonds this morning like a good solider.

The only mention I heard was positive

That's what the chart looks like WITH government intervention... Imagine how crappy it would look without a constant "band" of gov. control and signaling! I learned so much about charts from this fat old Michigander named Mike Parnos and one other old midwesterner as a young kid. Those guys were the best - salty and lazy and tons of experience. And that midwestern accent. I still hear their voices in my head when position goes against me - "GTFO" - "get the funds out!"

No mention of IDBI with the cameras rolling that I heard. Good discussion of technology investment at CSB. The financing discussion was pretty amusing. If there is opportunity, the money will be there. There is a humorous saying they bandied around that, basically, if there is opportunity, they only need to make one call (hint: it's Prem) and the money appears.

I think one of the things people miss when they freak out about the treasury market disruption this morning is that it wasn't some decision by foreign investors to boycott / sell US treasury debt - these foreign treasury holders own OFF THE RUN treasury securities and these are way more illiquid that you might think. That's probably why things like the "20 year" were the sweet spot of opportunity this morning - you could buy 20 year US government paper and lock in 5% for 20 years this morning. I know you inflation freaks think that's a shit deal but that will go down in history as another epic opportunity for the insurance fund manager set. The 20 year maturity is probably the least liquid and most 'off the run' portion of the curve. It always seems abnormally high yielding to me. They sell treasuries when they need US dollar cash. The reserve assets are what they have to sell overnight to get the dollars they need. Chinese RMB is weak as hell against the dollar - nothing like almost every other currency paired with USD. When the shit is hitting the fan, sometimes there are disruptions in the treasury markets - especially during Asian business hours. But it is always short term noise because a US treasury security is still the most pristine collateral for any kind of leverage or swap or other transformation of one type of capital to another. Maybe there are liquidations because repo markets tighten up but that doesn't change the fact that there is no better collateral to post than a US treasury security. My chart mentor back when I was a kid used to call this the "bullish launching pad pattern" LOL.. edit: should have probably posted the off-shore Yuan rate chart! Even more chaotic

The nice thing about any delay in Anchorage going public is that the Airport and airport city development continue to get more valuable every day. It would also be nice if markets were healthy and happy when an eventual IPO went down. Right now we own as much as we are going to own. Not a bad thing when its a great asset. I don't see any reason for the local government to cut BIAL / Anchorage out of a deal for a second airport. You have the exclusivity period, a very competent operator that has access to a TON of capital, and a great track record / relationship. Keep everything win-win and you're golden. Sell me some more in the 14's suckers!

BASF not happy with Duracell -> https://www.reuters.com/legal/basf-sues-berkshires-duracell-allegedly-stealing-battery-secrets-2025-04-09/

Warren's been around a few of these. He knows we're closer to the beginning than the "bottom." That said, he may nibble on his old stand buys like OXY. We'll see. I doubt he bought much of anything. Chubb was attractive again below 270 but it was gone in a flash!

Oh man, I've had two different share classes of the same stock close a trading day with, say, B shares up 3% and A shares down 4% - huge dollar amounts offsetting each other on the daily change - the exact same company and the exact same trading period! Markets are wild

Wow! no cash in a bear market! Did you invest all the cash this morning?

You aren't going to get too many invitations to the pie counter Blake! Make sure to take a full helping when you get yours

Yeah, executed trades with time of execution and exchange and all that

See Blake - investing is fun!

No not really. You might think that we would demand higher earnings yields when risk free rates rise but in practice lower treasury yields mean weak economy and higher treasury yields mean strong economy and stocks trade opposite to bonds most days. Risk parity and all that

On BIAL exclusivity and talks around a second airport: - Exclusivity on the radius surrounding BIAL through 2033 - Possibility to offload the less desirable traffic to a 2nd airport (by 'less desirable' I assume they mean less profitable, ie, domestic) - Talk about the possibility of reviving the old airport (HAL) - if HAL airport is reopened, we will operate it. We have exclusivity on the old airport until 2038 - By 2033, BIAL will be at 85m and all peak time slots will be filled - so there is a need for another airport before the end of the exclusivity period - We recommended our favorite of the 3 sites and state government, etc, will make their decision - We will protect our interests and we have a very good relationship with state government and are included in the talks / process

On Anchorage approval taking so long: - It is taking an unusually long time to get this approval - Usually the bureaucracy in India has been much more receptive - Holding companies owned by foreign owners gets into a complicated area. - Given size and nature of the asset - an asset of national importance - adds further to complications - Cabinet committee of economic affairs is the committee responsible for approving this IPO - it is the apex committee of the country, headed by Modi himself - This committee has on its plate: defense, tariffs, geopolitics, internal affairs, etc.. amongst this we have a little item called "IPO of Anchorage" and that is not especially high priority at the moment! Very low on their priority list of pressing agenda items but we will get there.

Nobody to answer because everyone is packed into a single room at Fairfax India annual meeting - WAIT!! What if its India?!

Oh gosh, don't tell a 23 year old to buy bond ETFs! He's not running an insurance company

Imagine you're Brian Bradstreet and you have a little barbell approach going to hit some average duration and you get yet ANOTHER chance to put on some 4.9% 20 year US government paper right before a recession. I mean, that's sort of tempting right...? https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US20Y

We're investors right?! The thing to be positive about is finding investment opportunities and making money! Which is easier today than last year! There's always something to do. You don't have to own the S&P 500 or even a single stock from the USA. There is opportunity everywhere

More likely a Japanese bank or two getting bailed out by their central bank