Crip1

Fearless prediction, because if I am wrong, nothing bad will happen to me. Share price will move up a little tomorrow, nothing special. Then, early to middle of next week the market will effectively say "Heeey, Fairfax seemed to have another good quarter, we'd better bid it up 5% or more over the next few days". -Crip

As always, really appreciate your insights, Viking. Many of us, myself included, would likely not own as much FFH as we do now without you…or, we would have bought in later than we did. What do board members think of my suggestion in my post above that Fairfax could remain perpetually undervalued as a company? I think that’s likely. We all know that share price fluctuates far more than the underlying value. I do think that FFH will, at times, be fairly valued by the market. But I’d opine that it will spend far more time being undervalued…the complexity of the company coupled with the fact that it’s far from “sexy” are two reasons for this conclusion. Additionally, the conglomerate discount feeds into this (although this will be mitigated if the monetize their investments like they are doing with AGT…it’s interesting to think what Poseidon or Exco may be worth 10 years from now if they were to be spun off) Would perpetual undervaluation be a good or a bad thing for long term investors if that happened? It is mainly neutral, but is more of a good thing than a bad thing, simply because being undervalued allows management to use capital to buy back shares if they cannot find a better use for capital in the marketplace. I can’t speak for others, but I am far more concerned with their ROIC than I am share price. Let's suppose that FFH is really worth 50% more than it’s selling for. If FFH can earn15%/year ROIC, and FFH continues to be worth 50% more than it is selling for, then I am still making 15% on my investment. Business performance is the driver, long-term. Closing the valuation gap would be nice, I guess, but performance is where the rubber meets the road. -Crip

I've not seen that announcement, can you post? I thought it was this week as well since they announced Q4 last year on February 13th. -Crip

My sincerest apologies to anyone who was looking to buy more depressed FFH today. I should have warned everyone that I was putting in a buy order after hours yesterday which normally, and today was no exception, results in a share price increase. -Crip

The 6 month low is roughly US$1,550 and we're getting pretty close to that. That was the day before Q3 earnings were released. i am considering a short term add above my already over-weighted position and would expect to sell into the strength once Q4 earnings are released. -Crip

Well, it’s both! Personally, it’s not really fear, or a prediction…it’s curiosity. Like many others, my crystal ball does not function terribly well. The notion of “What happens to my biggest investment if…” makes sense to me, and applies to multiple scenarios. When inflation was highly feared last April after the big tariff announcements, it made sense wonder “What happens if we see an inflation spike?”. With the Fed in a cutting cycle, it makes sense to wonder “What happens if long to intermediate term rates decline?”. For me, at least, none of these situations cause me to think the sky is falling, but it helps to consider what any of the macroeconomic factors can do to my biggest investment. And this board provides a hell of a lot more insight than I can on my own. -Crip

Mea culpa...I should have known. -Crip

Not sure if this is tongue-in-cheek or not. But, if not, I would be surprised if anyone bought FFH for the divvy. There are many companies paying quarterly dividends at a higher yield than FFH, and many of them have notably higher liquidity as they are traded much more actively. Stated differently, there are much better ways to get a quick 0.8% in the short term. -Crip

I vote for 400

As we all know, investing is complicated. With things this complicated, rarely is there a single explanation. Rather, it’s a confluence of factors. I offer the following and am open to alternative or additional factors. Timing – Using the “3 out of 5” rationale, random distribution suggests that we will have streaks with disproportionately higher numbers of hits and other streaks with disproportionately higher numbers of misses. Overall, there will be more hits over time but there will be months/years where misses outnumber hits. And, of course, an investment can go from hit to miss and vice versa. Luck – Let’s not kid ourselves, as much research that goes into our investment decisions as well as Fairfax’, there are unforeseen or unforeseeable factors that positively and negatively impact results. How much luck factors into any of our personal investments or Fairfax’ investments is debatable, but to say that it does not exist is naïve. Learning – All things being equal, the longer we do things, the better we get. This applies to an infinite number of skills we acquire over our lives. The more a learning machine invests, the better results the learning machine will achieve. How effective Prem and company are at being learning machines is debatable, but my opinion is that they’ve clearly shown to be learning machines. -Crip

No divvy change for 2026 https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-declares-annual-dividend-01-05-2026/?utm_source=press-release&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Mon+Jan+05+2026&utm_campaign=Fairfax+Declares+Annual+Dividend -Crip

Do we know what the purchase prices were on the Common Shares/Convert Bonds and Warrants? -Crip

I did not even notice that...ugh. Thanks for the knowledge. -Crip

Finished the book and definitely liked it. Odd thoughts: * When reading it, I remember thinking that the first 2/3rds was mostly chronological, but not completely. This was a little confusing at times. I see what the author was doing and can't say he was wrong for doing it...just that it caused a little frustration. * I lived through the short attack but really did not realize how close the company came to really being killed, and did not realize how the lawsuit (which I thought at the time was taking management time/effort away from running the business) was really what saved them. * The two major errors made by the company was buying sub-standard insurers in the earlier years which caused huge problems, and the hedging strategy of 2010's. The author provided some good detail on the former, but I would have liked to have heard more about the latter. * Culture...it really is as close to a moat as a company can get. They've talked about it for eons, but it really is a huge key to not only their success, but the ongoing investment thesis. Definitely recommend it as it's a good business "story", and especially recommend it if one is a shareholder...it's key to knowing what we own. -Crip P. S. If anyone purchases the workbook, please post your thoughts. Part of me sees it as a money-grab for the author (not critical...I am a capitalist) so I am disinclined to purchase. On the flipside, if the workbook takes the thought process of investing in this company and puts them into a framework, than it may be well worthwhile. -Crip

Um,, no, not my favorite thing to do. Your post did give me a chuckle, though. -Crip

I am starting to be a little wary of your postings. You've been on this message board for less than a month and have posted more than 30 times on FIH, most of which is highly critical of management and have not posted anything else on any other part of this board. Then, recently, the criticism seems to have turned into a combination of pessimism (see above) and rabble-rousing activism. Fully acknowledged and understood that criticism, in and of itself, is not necessarily a bad thing and I am not disagreeing with everything you are saying, but when I put everything together, it causes one to consider that the goal is to start grass-roots activism rather than constructive discussion of FIH. As stated above, I am less than happy with my results over the time I've owned this, and I do feel management can and should do more to realize shareholder value in terms of share price. It has not gotten to the point that I'm looking to exit the position, yet, but that's my plan if I find a better investment. Trust me, I am not one who has "twitter muscles" and see zero benefit of getting into a beef on a message board, especially this one which has had, over the years, very, very few of those. That's not my goal. It's that I'm feeling that there's an ultimate goal here that is beyond objective discussion of the merits of this investment. -Crip

This is just insane

I rarely trade, but did so this past couple of months. Added about 5% to my position, intended to be permanent, at US1,600. I also traded a few times with average buy of $1,580 and average sell of $1,774. That said, waiting for earnings vs. selling now. If you bought with the goal of re-selling for a quick profit...do it. If you're considering hanging on for the long-term, then don't sell. FFH is my largest position, by far, so I am putting my money where my mouth is. -Crip

Yeah, there is something a little concerning when I own more of a company than a board member. Betting scores of folks posting here can say the same thing. -Crip

I'm on vacation right now with very limited connectivity. But I just got in my feed that euromack is up over 15% today? Is this right and, if so, any ideas why? -Crip

Adding that the Kindle is easy on the eyes, and easy to read in most any light (beach, dark room and everywhere in between. -Crip

I think we see eye to eye on this, specifically that if an investment doesn't work at the fault lies with the investor, not the investee. Mia culpa here. The thing preventing me from selling is that I like buying a dollar for $0.50, but I don't like selling a dollar for $0.50. And I think at current price FIH is worth a dollar but is selling for $0.50, so I don't plan on selling in the near future. It would be nice to see actions taken which will help the price move closer to the value. If investing decisions were easy, everybody would be rich.. -Crip

Man, I hate offering dissenting opinions with you, Viking, as you're knowledge, acumen and intellectual generosity is above reproach. But, my thoughts are not 100% in line with yours. To answer the question of "What's not to like about the current setup?" I offer two things, and a third possibility" Yes, it has become almost a pure-play investment with BIAL. The issue is that, while we see this as undervalued right now, we MAY be wrong...or made wrong by the stroke of a governmental pen. I don't expect this, but if that comes true, we're in financial deep doo-doo. Those of us who bought this early in its history did so to provide patient capital to management to make long term investments in India. That's not been happening...few new investments over the past few years. I understand that it's wrong to "buy for buying sake", but the lack of new investments is concerning that, perhaps, we're not being sufficiently opportunistic...or we're sitting on capital loading up for an elephant where a few smaller targets would be better. The term "Patient Capital" is key...like many others on this board, I have been patient which is what FIH, FFH, Berkshire, MKL and other like companies want. We've been rewarded by the latter 3, but FIH management has not done so as of yet. Someone referred to my earlier post as "bellyaching" and, while I see the point, I respectfully disagree. It's one thing if I bought this in the middle of Q1 this year and am bi***ing now, but, this position has been established for several years and, yeah, the returns have been suboptimal. In any relationship, both sides need to do their part and my brokerage statements demonstrate conclusively that I have done mine. Finally, I really do want to reiterate what I said above in terms of your intellectual generosity. There are plenty of investment newsletters who charge good money offering less useful insights and analysis that you've provided for free on this board. I am wealthier because of you and, for that, you have my deepest appreciation. -Crip

As a preface, FFH is my largest holding by far, and FIH is in the top 5. I've had both for years (decades as it relates to FFH). As well, my second-guessing Prem and the rest of the management team is akin to my second-guessing Michael Jordan in his hey day. That said, the shareholders of FIH have not been rewarded for their faith in management, and their patience with management...pure and simple. One clearly understands the voting machine vs weighing machine aspect, but long term the "weight" has not been measurable. If management points to the value being well in excess of the price, so be it, but part of their responsibility as stewards of shareholder capital is to recognize the value in terms of price. FFH was undervalued for a while, and still is to an extent, but they are clearly closing that gap (and growing the value at the same time). With FIH, it's not the case, In terms of answers, I don't have any. I am not close enough to be able to understand all of the parameters involved with the decision making process there, and it's not my job. As a shareholder, I provide capital. As management, they maximize it. -Crip