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@Gamecock-YT I like your answers. M&A activity can be gotten from Dealogic. Where you do get a screen for dividend cuts and bankruptcies? There's a lot of oil mergers lately (OXY being widely discussed). Dividends and bankruptcies don't appear to be an issue. Are there certain industries you are looking into now?

@Gamecock-YT - Have their concepts impacted your investing style? I know Howard Marks talks about super cycle too. So, I do like their writing on cycles, but don't trade in and out of cycles. (sector rotation). I generally use it to analyze an industry in down cycles that should revive -- like European banking.... or banking in America circa 2010. I know shipping and oil are super cyclical, but they are commodities.

I listened to this podcast. It's weird how through some crazy association with Patrick O'Shaughnessy -> Colossus -> that has exposure to Founder's Podcast and others, they have a meeting with Charlie Munger. Somehow, they got to have a dinner with Charlie with their larger crew. Would Charlie associate with anyone that disreputable? Or waste his time? So, I looked at Tiny and don't get how he can be a billionaire if Tiny only has a 322M market cap. In Annie Duke's Quit book, Andrew has a reference where he had a Asana competitor product, but Asana out-marketed, out-developed, out-spent him... and he lost 11M in cash.... So, I don't know where he gets his alpha?

He is a good communicator.... but I would not put him in the same vain as Ray Dalio or Jim Cramer. I like Howard Marks. But, he's a bond investor, so his equity analysis is not his wheelhouse.... or what made him famous.

I read this and also, saw it in stores. Just don't know how to "play" this in financial instruments.

@Spekulatius - Understood. So, when you hear the estimates and comments from Citigroup and PBR-A --- do you put any weight to them? One is in financial and one is in oil.... You have something, and you pray they are right.. but, how accurate can Jane Frazier be -- considering there are capital market events that she cannot control in 2024 and 2025 that can help or hurt her earnings. Can she accurately forecast what the Fed will allow her in buybacks and dividends without a bureaucrat being pissed that they told them what they should do.. versus the Fed telling what they can do. I know roughly what I am going to make this year, but I actually don't know how good my stock portfolio will generate.... But, then again, I don't have shareholders or wall street analyst to predict...

@Spekulatius - I would say the zombie-ish companies are the banks in Germany. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have fixed themselves up. But, there should be more consolidation in Germany for one. It is overbanked. The locally-government controlled savings bank - Spareassen-Finanzgruppe. Pricing is being held down by the weakness offerers like oil producers. It's just not rational. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Cooperative_Financial_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_Germany Many don't have scale and without government support, would be dissolvent. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2017/html/ssm.sp170927.en.html In Italy, I would say Monte die Paschi -- which they want Unicredit to take over.. but, they passed. Let it die.

@Gamecock-YT Is it only in your industry (finance)? Or can your forecasting work with oil companies, which can be at the whelm of spot prices? Or one just has to look at hedges in the disclosure to see how risky a company is trying to be.

Is this the "Big Short 2.0"? China edition? Goldman Sachs will somehow make money on this... LOL.

I bought it when the thread got posted... I believe it was $50 dollars then... so, it has been a good investment both mentally and monetarily. I would put it up there with Margin of Safety by Klarman.... I have to admit this forum has highlighted some books that were amazing and now out of print like Investor AB. You can still find Capital Returns on Amazon..I would recommend that read.

If you can find a copy of the "Capital Account" book. It's great. I have one. Also, the Capital Returns book is thought-provoking as as sequel. Nick Sleep (of Nomad Capital fame) was at Marathon when they wrote those letters and he said he might have wrote some with Zak. You can see tenets of 'scaled economies shared' in there.

@DooDiligence - I am with you. I just don't how banks can predict how the economy is going to do and how their IB arm will do.... which results in their ROIC numbers... like how does Jaime Dimon know even if JPM will be close 2 quarters from now... there's so many factors. Conversely, how can Jane Frazier know they will hit their targets in 2025? I know you can deliver the cost cutting side -- but, who knows if there is another GFC or Silicon Valley Bank situation 3 quarters from now...... why even give that guidance as you say.... I like have Ubiquiti doesn't have a conference call or press release... same with BRK... you get what you get... But, most are in the other camp.... I felt it's a bit of tea leaves.. I just wanted to know if there is a secret sauce.

@linus_md - Yes, I don't understand how Jaime Dimon and other banks can predict they will hit their ROTCE estimates so easily.

I concur -- those zombie companies are on life support.... Survival of the Fittest and Creative Destruction is held at bay for a while... You can put parallels to Japan back in the day.... Europe is correcting and hopefully normalizes..but, their socialistic bend keep it from going quicker than the US. There is some bad things happening in China... with real estate companies.

@paperweight I will throw another name out - Universal Security Instruments, Inc. ($UUU). They're just publicly traded to get any multiple P/E of 5... So, if they were privately owned, they would just get 1x... but, at 5x... they are suckering/stealing from the shareholder base.... The company is only 11 people, but the CEO is just paying himself and over the long run, you can see it popped a bit, but comes straight back down. All the profits are funneled to the CEO not shareholders and nothing one can do about it. No catalysts in sight... One of their largest investors don't care... I called them eons ago.. and the major holder just passed it to his investor base and acted stupid. Sadly, not criminal, but no integrity. So, again, I've never seen it turn well unless you can change the board.

Most likely... I wanted to know how accurate companies can be about earning..... Like Elon Musk with Tesla -- can they really gauge short term demand and their CFOs can get close enough. I heard a lot from Jane Frazier at Citigroup that they can their ROIC numbers above 10% by 3 quarters from now. I know you can control your costs...but, how easy it is to match the revenue side.. .Or at the corporate level, they can do some accounting deferrals to "hit the numbers". I know there are surprises, but do CFOs really have strong models to factor in growth and expenditures.

I would love the counterargument or an example of a good regional to invest in that is undervalued like Citigroup or even an international global bank like Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Unicredit, BNParabis, Commerzbank, ABN Amro. (I just listed 6 banks that priced below book and with stronger CET1 ratios) Just feel the dynamics the large money center bank is easier... There is definitely finish in the smaller pond of regional banks.... but, I think it's easier now for the larger banks.

I wanted to know how companies can feel confident about their revenue and profit guidance into 2025? Or future quarters in general? I know everyone has models, but: on one hand, people say it's so hard to forecast because we don't know a lot of variables like interest rates, events like Ukraine, 2nd and 3rd order effects of ChatGPT/AI/ML advancements... so, it's hard to foretell stock movement. but, on the other hand, how can companies feel so confident they know their numbers for the next 4 quarters? For example, are the revenue/FP&A models so good for banks like JPM, BAC, Deutsche Bank -- that they know how their trading, M&A pipeline will be in 6 months? Is anyone in the corporate industry that can chime in?

Are mid-size/regional banks even worth investing in? I mean.... Size matters in the US with regulations. See how the large banks powered through the pandemic, Ukraine/Russia fiascos, etc.... Just the cost of AML/KYC and IT investments -- and oversight.... regional banks don't have the scale... They do serve a local customer.. but, you don't get better P/BV in regional. Higher growth... They're just weener.. just stuck in the middle. With a middle of the road strategy. You can buy Citi/BAC/WFC at better PBV multiples, better dividend payout, and growth than regionals. Plus Citi/BAC/WFC are too big to fail.. so, they get more scrutiny in their business model.

@ValueArb - I feel you. I just found plenty of bargains in the small and mid-cap space where market caps are in the 5-50B... plenty of liquidity... and I still get the doubles/triples I am looking for. Nano/Microcaps like SODI can get me those types of returns, but it can either go well or badly.. and you must trust the management a lot because it's like marrying the mob.. you can't get out easily other than the witness protection program.

@blakehampton - Gotcha. If they delisted and they have a heavy discount, I would reach out to management and see what they expect to realize value for smaller shareholders like yourself. You're a minority shareholder and they can just jerk you around. They probably don't institutional investors, so I don't know who is holding the other side of your buys... People that are feed up? Again, prior to them delisting.... because they were at a discount... did they do any shareholder friendly acts, such as share buybacks? How are they doing to close the gap? Again, they shouldn't be that big to ignore you. Give them a call and see if they are responsive. If not, you're a nat... that's not a shareholder community I want to be with.... They might use it as their piggybank...

I find stocks like ARM, NuBank, Coupany, UiPath all IPO as mid to large cap stocks. It's really hard find a small stock that has growth... maybe, they IPO and then drop into a low cap valuation.... but, what's the best small cap anyone has seen lately? I would say... maybe, maybe, Brunello Cucinelli at 5B.

I'm on Interactive Brokers myself and the commission is reasonable... but, then, you have contend with spread. If you're patient, you can build a position. But, let's say it takes you 3 months to get into a position.... how long will it take you to get out of that same position without crushing the Buy/Sell balance. 3 months? For those 3 months, you were probably the market and picking off small buyers... Getting out as a non-controlling shareholder is hard.... What is the margin of safety you're looking for? I mean how much of a net-net does it have to be for you to be that patient. Even Warren Buffett in the early days tried to get on the board to generate the catalyst. It's a perfect stock with great management trading at 50% book... but, it's closely held. Again, at a low market cap, why don't they just take it private and not deal with the disclosures and reporting? Again, I find most people that want to start microcap/nanocap funds...are just stock manipulators... they know they can uptick at the final bell of the month/quarter to make their performance look amazing.. They're a big fish in a little pond... but, their funds cannot scale and ultimately, they outgrow the market.

Look at the 2008 Housing Crisis for reference.

I use Quartr or the company's website (call IR -- which suppose to help)