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beerbaron

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Posts posted by beerbaron

    real estate

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Below are some of the unpleasant things I've experienced over the years when dealing with renters.

    --A $35,000 and $44,000 bill on two houses after the tenants left.  They knocked holes in the wall, destroyed the lawn by spinning tires, ruined the floor by turning on the water/leaving it on, knocking out all the windows, and other bad things.  Note Insurance doesn't cover damage done by the tenants.

    --A woman burning herself alive in the trailer by smoking with oxygen tanks and the property being destroyed.

    --Having air conditioning/heating units stolen.  $5,000.00 out the window each time that occurred.

    --Property being left with roaches all over the place.

    --Being sued for someone falling down the steps- A 300 pound woman should not be walking on high heels.

     

    Lol, that is the reason why I buy stocks. Not buildings I'd like to do other things with my life then to repair walls!

    Is There Any Reason Why BAC Should Not Be At Citi's Price to Book?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Yup.  Very good example.  It's going to kill off a bunch of life insurance companies too if it goes on too long!  Just like in Japan.  Cheers!

     

    American life companies don't do as much or as high in guaranteed rates as Japanese life companies. They are also much better matched. They have been also raising prices.

     

    Don't pass these judgments so fast. I just purchased a 20 year life insurance (150k, 19.50$ per month) for me and my girlfriend. There is a 2.8% chance of my girlfriend dying in the next 20 Year and me a 6.7% chance for a total of 9.5%. Based on a 5% annual interest earned on my premium you could see that the money they would earn would be around 7000$. Divide 7000$/0.095 and you get 73 000$, which means the lifeco is running an actuarial deficit of 77 000.

     

    *Please note, this is a rough calculation, we are both non smoker so the death rate should be a bit lower. But on the other hand I'm not calculating the brokering fees on the lifeco side. Plus, something tells me they still use a 7% return rate on their assumptions, if you paid yearly for the premiums you could save 7%. 7% seems very high in this environment!

     

    P.S. For those that are EL. Financial shareholders that does not looks good since the insurance policy was from Empire Life. I've kept EL Financial on my watch list up until I got that insurance contract from them :)

    Did iPad 3 Live Up To The Hype?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I have to be on Parsad side here, a great screen is not a game changer. Having the best technology does not make the best devices.

     

     

    Why does every iteration of a product have to be a game changer though? This is the third generation of the iPad, and there has yet to be a competitor to come out with a tablet that even rivals the original iPad.

     

    The iPad itself was a game changer, and it's only been out a couple years. Now they have to continually improve it to make sure it remains the best tablet available, which they've accomplished so far.

     

    It does not need to be a game changer at every iteration but every time you release a improved version that's not a game changer your competitors are getting closer.

     

    Imagine widget A and widget B. Widget A is a game changer at year 0 and increasing it's consumer intrisic value at say 20% a year. Widget B is a copycat but since it's basically copying Widget B it can grow it's consumer intrinsic value at 30% starting from year 1.

     

                      Widget A        Widget B          Widget A/B

    Year 0        100$              0$                    Infinite

    Year 1        120$              50$                  240%               

    Year 2        144$              65$                  222%

    Year 3        172$              85$                  204%

    Year 4        207$              110$                189%

     

    So each year that is passing by the intrinsic consumer value differential is shrinking so is the pricing power. After 10 years the pricing power has became a commodity.

     

    And to be honest I don't think the A/B after 3-4 years of iPad/Android is 189%, it's probably more like 150%, but's it's just an example to expose the facts. In the end everything is a toaster!

     

    BeerBaron

    Did iPad 3 Live Up To The Hype?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I have to be on Parsad side here, a great screen is not a game changer. Having the best technology does not make the best devices.

     

    The 4GS was an Ok upgrade from the 4G with Siri. But so far I have not met anybody using it as a personal assistant like it was advertised. So who knows, maybe it won't pick-up as expected.

     

    Also, I work in product development myself, and I can tell you that the vision of the leader has a huge impact on the success of the entreprise. Some companies will have billions of ideas but with little focus to each of them. Apple's great advantage was that it had very few well finished products.

     

    BeerBaron

    Primer on options?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Seldom mentioned, & often more valuable, is the tax application. Sell a long dated low volatility at the money call from a tax deferred RRSP, & buy in a tax exempt TFSA account. Unwind on a high volatility event. The RRSP loss becomes the TFSA gain, & wealth transfers from the RRSP with no witholding tax. RRSP -> Market loss & Market ->TFSA gain structure nixes challenges.     

     

    So if I understand properly you are counting that in say a 1 year timeframe there will be some shock to the system that will add volatility?

    Would the CRA allow us to be long RRSP and short in TFSA of the same security?

     

    BeerBaron

    Value of Field Research

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I have avoided two bad investments so far this past year by doing field research.  Le Chateau looked real good on numbers - I checked out a couple of their stores at Christmas and they were actually empty - Le Chateau is a clothing retailer in Canada.  Two stores was enough to tell me to stay away.

     

    I too looked at Le Chateau before Christmas, they had what was supposed to be a brand new concept in the shopping center next to me. Went there and it was the same merchandise then in their other stores but with more expensive displays. Passed on it after the experience.

     

    BeerBaron

    Foreclosure Deal to Offer $17B Mortgage Relief

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Can someone explain how that would translate in their books?

     

    From my understanding they are not looking to refinance under-performing loans so we are talking 100% asset write-off. So by definition The big 3 would need to take a direct hit on their equity by the same amount...

     

    BeerBaron

     

    I presume it would just come out of reserves.

     

    Would it? My understanding is that reserves are put up based on current NOL and past default rate. If you refinance users that are not classified in NOL then you take a direct hit. Maybe someone with more bank accounting knowledge could help...

     

    BeerBaron

    Bruce Berkowitz Interview

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Lol, what kind of weight can you put on a bookshelf when judging someone... my guess is it should be totally irrelevant. There is the operating metrics, then the intangibles and finally the silly things. A bookshelf does not even fit the third.

     

    BeerBaron

    Quants Take Patriots!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Football is a great game but I've always found that one game to determine the champion of any sport is ridiculous.

     

    How can 1 sample be enough to untangle the most skillfull VS the most lucky?

     

    Human brain is a funny device at this point all the New-Yorkers are celebrating that their teams is the more skillfull while statistically it's far from being proven!

     

    BeerBaron

     

     

    Maybe Apple's The Next Berkshire!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Microsoft was way closer to a monopoly at that time Compared to Apple today.

     

    Depends on how you see it. Some might argue that the fact that a user on iTunes cannot take it's songs library and transfer it into another system is a monopoly. Or that you can't buy the apps outside their environment makes the software suppliers captive and unable to compete properly.

     

    BeerBaron

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