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beerbaron

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Posts posted by beerbaron

    Have you been selling into the rally? What companies are you waiting on?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I find it's a horrible environment, on the macro side it's a freaking non-sense. The S&P 500 is higher then 9 months ago but the prospects are way worse, in January Europe was not in a total recession (it was heading there), the PIGS problems do not look better at all and the American economy has slowed down. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but spreads of all bonds have narrowed which implies a lower risk tolerance but on the other side stocks have gone up by a meaningful amount which means a high risk tolerance. It just does not make sense.

     

    Looking to sell Cisco pretty soon to add to my already excessive cash balance...

     

    BeerBaron

    Do you own Rimm poll

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If licensing QNX as the #4 mobile smartphone platform and hoping it catches on in other areas is the plan then I think RIM bulls are a little crazy.  Transitioning from being a global leader in handsets and infrastructure to a niche OS developer is no small thing.  How the hell do you value that?  It may work out.  But, how to you know what the addressable market is or what kind of license fees you might be able to demand? I'd guess they'd still be competing with android in that market anyway.  It is a huge roll of the dice.

     

    BB10 is a real time operating system, which makes it suitable for mission critical applications. Androids will be left to consumers market at this point.

     

    BeerBaron

    Copycat investing

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Two years ago I started my Master in Engineering and I concluded that I would not have enough time to do a good job researching stocks. So I decided to adopt a guru copy of portfolios. I had no idea which guru's to copy tough. So I established the following criterias:

     

    -Must have a value approach

    -Must have low portfolio turnover (I'm 2 months late on their portfolio change so if I want to follow it needs to be slow!)

    -Must have outperformed the S&P500 on a 10 years timeframe

    -Must be capable of understanding their thesis

    -Must have concentrated positions

     

    The results of that selection are the followings:

    Berkshire, Greenlight, Fairfax, Fairholmes

     

    Each quarter generates 4-5 ideas. I find the lows of the quarter for each stock and buy 5% position if the stock gets below that (if the thesis still holds).

     

    So far it seems to generate 2-3 purchases per year.

     

    BeerBaron

    Tweedy Brown on Investments and Taxes

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Quote from Buffett:

    And once you’ve estimated future cash inflows and outflows, what interest rate do you use to

    discount that number back to arrive at a present value? My own feeling is that the long-term

    government rate is probably the most appropriate figure for most assets.

     

    That would mean a P/E of 36!

     

    And when Charlie and I felt subjectively that interest rates were on the low side — we’d

    probably be less inclined to be willing to sign up for that long-term government rate. We might

    add a point or two just generally. But the logic would drive you to use the long-term

    government rate.

     

    That would mean a PE of 21... much more realistic.

     

    Still, lots of room on the macro side judging from Buffett's simple equation.

     

    BeerBaron

    Cash Percentage Poll

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Probably around 30-40% cash, I have been at that level since January. Not trying to time anything, just could not find a great deal to load up on. All I bough in the last 8 months was some additional ALS.TO at 10.30$ and BK at 20.20$.

     

    BeerBaron

    International corporates Fillings

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Hi, since there is members all around the world I believe it would be great if everybody would put the main regulatory and sources of informations (annual reports, press release, etc...) of their respective countries. It would be a great tool for people to share their knowledge on where they get their information. I'll start off with my very limited list. Please post your own information and I will then edit my post to add it.

     

    Canada

    Corporate filings

    SEDAR

    http://www.sedar.com/

    Insider transactions

    SEDI

    http://www.sedi.ca

    Stock screeners

    ADVFN

    http://www.advfn.com

    Globe Investor

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/

    Press Releases

    Market Wire

    http://www.marketwire.com/

    Business Wire

    http://www.businesswire.ca/

     

    USA

    Corporate filings

    EDGAR

    http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml

    Stock screeners & Others

    Google Finance

    http://www.google.com/finance/stockscreener

    ADVFN

    http://www.advfn.com

     

    Thorsten Heins Answers G&M Reader Questions

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I have trouble understanding how BB10 will be the Saint Graal of OS, I mean what can they do that is so great compared with iOS, Android, BB7 or Windows Mobile? The company is selling BB10 like a game changer but I don't see how it's going to be any but an incremental improvement at this point. I would be happy to hear the answer to the following questions:

     

    -What are consumens searching that Android or iOS does not already offer?

    -What are the strategic advantages of BB against it's competition?

    -What does BB10 give them the chance to provide that other OS can't?

     

    BeerBaron

    How do you guys do paper currency conversions

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Guys, I'm about to leave for Europe. Being the cheapo that I am, I was trying to find the best scheme to reduce the paper currency conversion costs. Of course there are the canadian banks that charge a spread of 5%, some exchange office that charge 2% but I believe there must be even more economical ways.

     

    For example  I tough to buy Euro's in my IB account, ask for a check in Euro's and cash it at a bank in Italy. Do you guys use any clever ways to save on the currency conversion?

     

    Thanks

    BeerBaron

    BAC Morgan Stanley Presentation - June 12, 2012

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Is that me or deleveraging continues big time? Assets are shrinking and they are repaying LT debt at an astonishing rate but that does not seem to be their choice but the fact that they can't put that money to work and get returns on it. So if BAC can't put their money to work, who is, and most importantly... at what costs/risks?

     

    BeerBaron

     

    Umm... JPM  :P

     

    I look at it this way.  They can delever today, and relever anytime they like when conditions are more profitable.  Better than reaching for yield.

     

    Not criticizing BAC deleveraging at all, I'm pretty neutral about it, up bottom line short term, no idea on long term. Just stating the facts about the current banking market and most importantly which company to avoid investing in!

     

    BeerBaron

    BAC Morgan Stanley Presentation - June 12, 2012

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Is that me or deleveraging continues big time? Assets are shrinking and they are repaying LT debt at an astonishing rate but that does not seem to be their choice but the fact that they can't put that money to work and get returns on it. So if BAC can't put their money to work, who is, and most importantly... at what costs/risks?

     

    From page 7

    The greatest opportunity to reduce funding costs is continued reduction in long-term debt as this expense is 5X the cost of deposits and long-term debt is one third the size of deposit funding.

     

    BeerBaron

    There is a school of thought that believes...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    So, are you taking the bet?

     

    So, you would actually bet on the short-term, speculative nature of predicting whether Apple might be a $750B capitalization company within a year or two?

     

    What if someone asked you whether you would make a $5K bet on Apple being a $750B company on June 13, 2013?  Would you be silly enough to take that bet?

     

    Why would they bet 50/50 on a 750B$ mkt cap when they could buy Jan 2014 calls for a much better risk/reward for the longs?

     

    BeerBaron

     

     

    "If you wrapped up all the $100 bills in circulation...

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Forbes thinks Einhorn was making fun of Buffett.  I'm no fan of Einhorn's, but I didn't think he was doing quite that.  It seemed like he was applying the same analogy for cash to gold, and saying that they were similar, except gold holds its value far better.  If he was taking a shot at Buffett, it would be a pretty stupid thing to do.  Cheers!

     

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012/05/31/einhorn-trashes-buffett-cash-but-loves-gold/?partner=yahootix

     

    He was totally making fun of buffett! come on! We know for a fact he was as well... Its obvious he was because Buffett refuses even when put on the spot to attribute any historical value to gold. When he bashes gold it is with a clear american agenda as he knows very well any bullish attitude toward gold would cause a mass exodus out of US Currency... In the transcript posted above Buffett was asked in a very straight forward way if he preferred gold over cash and he couldn't even answer, he had to change the subject and talk about farms. This is a topic that Buffett continues to distort while the cold hard facts prove that both he and his father understand the flaws in fiat money and the benefits to a hard currency.

     

    I have yet to hear one person ask Buffett if he thought the gold standard was bettter for america than the current fiat money standard, I would love to see him change the subject on that one. We have had this debate on this board before I and I don't wish to participate in it again.. I am going to stop posting about this now.

     

    If I remember correctly Buffet was publicly bearish the USD dollar for 2001 and above. He even bough basket of currencies and then moved to brazilian Real. So no he is not always cheering for the US.

     

    BeerBaron

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