beerbaron
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Posts posted by beerbaron
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"Money printing" is the same thing as credit creations. The only difference is that the FED has no liabilities associated with the money it creates.
What is the difference between a bank issuying credit VS the FED printing money? Both are dilution of the money base.
BeerBaron
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In Quebec it did get lots of attention, French banks are exposed but I'm ready to bet it's the tip of the iceberg and others around the worls will be splashed...
BeerBaron
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It seems they have made very good return on those Imvescor shares!
BeerBaron
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Well EMT on the strong form is ludicrous but on the weak form I think it's bang on.
BeerBaron
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Incredible ethics, no wonder why ethical people want to work for him.
BeerBaron
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I just got this notice from Google today. Anybody has the equivalent web based RSS feed?
BeerBaron
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For Macro I usually only listen to Ray Dalio, he clearly understands how the economic machine works. Value investors usually don't make good macro analisys.
BeerBaron
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The table shows you how our reserves have developed for the ten accident years prior to 2012. Northbridge has
had an average redundancy of 8.2% – i.e., if reserves had been set at $100 for any year between 2002 and 2011,
they would have come down on average to $91.80, showing redundant reserves of $8.20. On a comparable basis,
Crum & Forster had an average reserve redundancy of 5.8%, OdysseyRe 9.8% and Fairfax Asia 8.8% (First Capital
alone was 12.0%). We are very pleased with this reserving record, but given the inherent uncertainty in setting
reserves in the property casualty business, we continue to be focused on being conservative in our reserving process. More on our reserves in the MD&A.
If a insurance has higher redundancy, does it reduce taxes by deferring them?
BeerBaron
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What do you think he thinks about when he says:
If float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe Berkshire’s will be, the true value of this liability is
dramatically less than the accounting liability
My logic tells me that an endless revolving load is worth 100%. What do you guys think?
BeerBaron
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I wonder if it would be possible to get those raw insider sentiment data. It could be an interesting study to see if there is any correlation between Insiders and future index.
BeerBaron
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Might I remind every forecasters in this forum that not too long ago we could have ±4% days on the S&P 500...
BeerBaron
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I'll sell when it makes sense tax wise, that is when:
-Berkshire does not create a dollar of value for each dollar retained.
-And when it pays dividends.
Besides that I'm very happy to get the tax free equivalent of a retirement account.
BeerBaron
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I believe it is unrealized but its still Marked-to-Market.
Yes, it is marked to market. Cheers!
Yeah affects BV but and operating profit I believe. Luckily most of the bonds are MTM too since they are classified as short term investment so it's easy to value FFH. I find it amazing that they lost 1 billion dollars in hedges and still managed to grow BV by quite a bit. They are taking a defensive approach and I can't blame them for it.
BeerBaron
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Why don't you use an DCF based on the expected return?
BeerBaron
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I wonder why his investment in Bank of Ireland does not show up.
Not a US listed stock. I don't think ADR are required.
Fred
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Respectively - this is not an effective pairs trade. Businesses don't line up at all... Drivers are vastly different at each business
You are completely right on this one, that it why pair trade is not the strategy:
-We have a fairly good idea of the BV of Fairfax.
-This value is not represented in the stock price at the moment.
The strategy would not be to a pair trade but long only up until FFH value goes toward BV. Not a risk free investment but an asymmetric risk/reward.
BeerBaron
*Note, I don't think the gains on are big enough to warrant an arbitrage
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Yeah I tough about it too. I wanted to crunch some numbers this weekend to see if it's significantly under fair value.
BeerBaron
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Massaged the right way, I'm sure a statistician could prove my father is a virgin.
BeerBaron
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I sell when the thesis has occured or material changes changed the thesis.
In order to measure one's sell quality, a person should start a short portfolio of the position he sells. I wish I were so discipline tough!
BeerBaron
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Insider ownership is show on the SEDI website.
BeerBaron
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Who cares!!! You can't lose if if you don't play!
BeerBaron
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Thanks for posting that, I noticed that he had the most recent Japan Company Handbook on his desk, I know because I have the same copy I've been working through here. I guess he just can't get away from paging through those books looking for bargains…!
How much did you end up paying for the Japan company handbook with shipping?
BeerBaron
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By the way, does everybody arrive at a price of 91.53 for the buyback trigger?
I used the following numbers:
BV @ 31-09-12 : 189.074B
Economic units (ClassB=1 ClassA = 1500) : 2.478B
BV/Economic Units *1.2 = 91.53
Regards
BeerBaron
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Ok, I'm a little lost now. What exactly are people in this thread referring to when they mention "Warren's put"? I just see the 1.2BV level as a resistance point, but I am lost as to what "put" means in this context.
The theory is simple.
Buyback at 1.2xBV on a stock that has a daily volume of about 300 Millions $/day. The company has about 20 Billions of extra money in the bank and generates about 10B a year. If it ever goes under 1.2xBV BRK can therefore buy substantial amount of it's own stock and sustain it's price.
BeerBaron
David Foster Wallace - This is Water
in General Discussion
Posted
Wish I could write as well!
BeerBaron