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ERICOPOLY

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Everything posted by ERICOPOLY

  1. You talked about things like leverage and free upside. Look, I'm not saying anything like that. I'm just saying: 1). you are taking ONLY the downside of the diversified basket of 100 names (none of the upside) 2). you are taking ONLY the upside of the concentrated name (none of the downside). Derivatives were created for swapping risk. I'm not saying anything unusual or surprising.
  2. That civil war thing is kinda mainstream thinking: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/11/1071082955/imagine-another-american-civil-war-but-this-time-in-every-state
  3. Yes, to cover the liability from the short put positions.
  4. I think that is a requirement if the individual is actively involved. Otherwise it will look like they're avoiding employment taxes (FICA).
  5. Because OSHA ETA ran out last month, employees can no longer stay home sick AND PAID if they had previously exhausted sick time. Unless their employer voluntarily gives them additional paid sick time. The sunsetting of that policy is a covid spread accelerator. From what I am seeing, people do not voluntarily stay home sick UNPAID.
  6. I didn't say that. It can be 100% total exposure. For example, 70% long diversified common stock portfolio in addition to the 30% notional position in the calls, and the 100 name collection of written puts with 0.3% notional exposure each.. Derivatives were made to swap risk. So you can use them for what they were made for.
  7. DeSantis is cute, but AOC is vaccinated today and lockdowns predated that.
  8. There's literally a job for anyone who wants one with signing bonuses for jobs like delivery drivers. This is the most amazing job market for low-skilled labor I've witnessed.
  9. It's why buying ATM calls on 30% notional portfolio value make sense, funded by writing puts on 30% total portfolio notional across 100 other names if your risk tolerance is such that 0.3% position sizing in any one name is as large as you can tolerate. Sigh...
  10. Thanks for sharing, that is very cool that you kept those photos. Close To The Edge was/is my favorite (and the next one after it on the album by said name). My other favorite is Heart Of The Sunrise, the last song on Fragile which immediately preceded the next release which was Close To The Edge. I can't think of another band where that has happened for me.
  11. I was reading about just how cheap T recently got from a historical standpoint. Apparently only 1930 was cheaper going back all the way to the 1880s, although the UCLA basketball team under Wooden isn't the same as the one today.
  12. I remember people kept saying "we're turning Japanese". I kept saying the PE of Japan's stock market was quite high after they turned Japanese. Today, looks like we've turned Japanese just like they worried about.
  13. Totally. I can't fathom the whole "The TOP is coming" sentiment, other than to say yes, IT IS COMING and I'm so excited for it!!!
  14. I vividly recall it would alternate from feeling like we were orbiting counterclockwise, then I would catch myself and it would feel like we were losing ground to it and it was overtaking us, kind of like a rapper on a turntable scratching a record in slow motion only we were seated on the vinyl and the stage was in the center.
  15. I'm pretty sure now the stage was rotating at the show I saw, but I felt at the time that the Coliseum was rotating around the stage.
  16. It is said that Page played without mistakes, and time is money in a studio. He was first to bring a distortion box to a studio and introduced it. Before that they used kicked in speakers and maxed-out amps and such...
  17. Ten Years Gone is one of my top 5, and I don't know how that went for Plant. I mean, he's married with kids at the time he wrote the lyrics, which are about a girlfriend he had 10 years prior who asked him to choose between her and his music. He's clearly still in love with her -- did his wife kick his ass or what???
  18. I'm listening to Great Zeppelin on Spotify at this moment. Yes, it's very good. I saw Robert Plant at Shoreline Amphitheater in 8th grade (going on 9th) when he toured A Principle of Moments. Communication Breakdown/Black Country Woman/Sick Again if I recall were the only Zep songs he did, but it was a taste. I have loved the music going on 36 years now.
  19. For the videos on the Get The Led Out website, look at the video for Kashmir (dated Oct 21 2013): https://player.vimeo.com/video/77465624?h=ff758080c9 My wife and I saw them just a couple of months ago at the Crest in Sacramento. They played Kashmir and it was just incredible how good they are -- the vocalist is fantastic.
  20. I was a fan of Yes as a teen, saw Anderson/Bruford/Wakeman/How tour at Shoreline. Saw Yes in-the-round at the Oakland Coliseum on shrooms. I'm not advocating drugs but that was something I still remember.
  21. My first concert was RunDMC / Beastie Boys (Licensed to Ill) at Shoreline Amphitheater. I think the tickets were $16. Run DMC went on first and seemingly all of the black audience left when they were done.
  22. I will have to check them out. Get The Led Out is a cover band that I've seen live a couple of times. They tour the country: Here are a few of their live performance videos: https://www.gtlorocks.com/videos There are six of them in the band, not four. They explain that the six musicians allow them to replicate the music as you hear it on the albums (overlayed tracks cannot be played by just four guys live). Very fun shows, they are awesome.
  23. If it's decades-old music, I'm still enjoying Led Zeppelin and it is my #1. More recently I've been enjoying Cigarettes After Sex. I have tickets to see The Killers in Vegas this coming August.
  24. Technicals are strange. This one is "bearish": https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/?p=T This one is "bearish": https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DISCK?p=DISCK This one is "bullish": https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KIND/?p=KIND I'm at a loss. (I'm referring to the "Chart Events" feature depicted on each page -- it's located under the chart)
  25. Rising wages might cause some marginally profitable businesses to call it quits, but that will free up labor to help grow the stronger companies. And rising wages will stoke consumer demand.
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