ERICOPOLY

Tech company making yesterday's buggywhip gets into distress. Has no hot product to replace it. Buy that company?

Yeah, so why? Wasn't future innovation the entire thesis?

In the 2011 Annual Report Prem wrote the following: "We have a mini-tech bubble in progress similar to the one we witnessed in 1999/2000, as shown in the table below:" Among those companies cited as his evidence: Facebook at $75 billion. Zillow at $500 million. LinkedIn at $7 billion. His research apparently amounted to just looking at P/E ratios. That appears to be it. And he bought BlackBerry why?

There is nothing wrong with passing on them if they don't understand them, but sometimes some really classic comments can be found when they comment on what they don't understand. Here is Prem commenting on Amazon in the 2000 Annual Letter: "Yes, Amazon.com has a market value of US$23 billion versus shareholders’ equity of US$266 million at December 31, 1999" And no, he's not pounding the table to buy it! He's actually thinking that it was priced crazy high! LOL.

When we say things like "this should trade above book value", what we are implicitly claiming is that Goodwill is understated on the balance sheet. 1. We are left with $140.1m of pre-tax earnings for FFH in Q1 2021 after stripping out the "gains on investments". 2. If you annualize those earnings, you come to $560.4m and I'm currently noticing that the $6.3b of Goodwill on the balance sheet is 11x that figure. The actual PE is higher because remember those are pre-tax earnings. 3. Prem's comment in this years letter claims that a share price of $1,000 would cure the problem of the stock being undervalued. Challenge question: At what PE is Prem assigning to this annualized $560m figure in order to generate a goodwill asset so large as to push the stock price to $1,000? And how does that compare to the 40x P/E that he is ragging on for MSFT?

I recently bought some, however if you take the devils advocacy you can empathize with Mr Market's lack of enthusiasm for the following reasons: 1. The Magic Hat. No premium above mark-to-market valuation should be given to their equity portfolio. It is also tax inefficient for many investors rather than holding these stocks directly in their tax-deferred accounts. 2. Interest rates. I'm not expecting Mr Market to assign much value to float that generates so little to show for the added risk. 3. Growth in premiums. Refer back to 2. More low interest rate float that carries added risk. 4. Underwriting profit. Looking back 10 years, it has value and came at no cost but how much did they actually rake in and what could have gone wrong instead? 5. Swearing they'll never short again. Do you remember when they had "learned" to invest in quality companies for the long term and bought JNJ, WFC, and KFT to prove their commitment to this revelation? For how long did they own those stocks?

My comment here is to point out that if you reduce expectations for growth potential, then you also should be discounting book value due to the goodwill baked into book value.

What is the typical/average amount of mortgage debt to equity in the US today? An amortized mortgage carrying a 3% rate is 40% paid off today if that mortgage was taken out when the housing market peaked in 2006.

My point was to ask whether the people pointing the finger at China were doing so to deflect the spotlight off of themselves. Why else would they repeatedly say "over there!", "over there!". That can be read either way. Perhaps the media called it racist because they underestimate the man.

So the "Kung Flu" comments were not racist in origin, but were instead a deflection organized by the top of US Government in order to hide the Administration's role in the outbreak? In 2017, under President Donald Trump, the moratorium was lifted and replaced with a review system called P3CO — for Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight — that left the review process shrouded in secrecy, according to the article.

It's not a hard decision knowing that almost 600,000 are dead in the US from covid-19, and many other survivors are suffering long term effects from their battle with covid-19. Meanwhile, the number of people vaccinated in the US far exceeds the number who have been infected with covid-19, and the dead and suffering are almost exclusively among the non-vaccinated. As the saying goes: 'Scorecard!'

Does anyone else own this? Two or three years ago (both actually) he said he was going to distribute the proceeds from the Stonetrust sale and wind everything down until there was only a "sliver" of stock holdings plus the GP ownership interest of Dhandho Funds.... But then last year, he reinvested the last of the proceeds from the Stonetrust sale back into the stock market (instead of distributing it), and said he was looking forward to gains on the stock holdings over the next few years. Am I imagining things or is this a course reversal?

Why get inoculated for polio or hepatitis? Because the cost/benefit ratio is extraordinary. This can get ugly fast so let's not make quick judgement. Hopefully he makes an informed decision and that's it. It still his decision. Valuearb, I think asking why never is not an option is totally fair. In my age range, there have been 5485 deaths over the past year (per CDC). Whats more is that a lot of the people who die from Covid either have pre-existing conditions such as obesity, high blood pressure etc which I don't have. The average vaccine takes years to pass between different stages of the approval process. This one got approved in less than a year. Furthermore, in the US you have no legal recourse if there are long term effects from the vaccine. If you are eager to get the vaccine that's your choice, if I choose not to that's mine. If you get seriously ill from covid-19, do you pay your medical bills cash out of pocket or does somebody else pick up the tab?

The theory sounds right but house prices in the 60s/70s/80s just kept on rising.

I'm sort of curious about that effect. If Grandma dies of covid-19 her house is sold and her heirs remodel their kitchens, spending more money in a short period than Grandma would have.

There were winners and losers in the 1970s. I've heard my father commenting many times about how that period of inflation rapidly paid off the house and brought the family a higher standard of living. His pay rose with inflation.

Right. I don't get it. We didn't have 6% inflation before covid, so what has changed? What has clearly changed is the attitude of governments, and the general population, towards running large budget deficits. During pandemics or GFCs, yes.

Right. I don't get it. We didn't have 6% inflation before covid, so what has changed?

Did you understand the digital camera analogy? A few bad pixels around the corners don't really matter. Also, in the NPR article it was indicated that they were looking at the comments the family was making about symptoms, so these were not asymptomatic people.

When AIDS wasn't understood and people were dying from common illnesses to a FAR GREATER degree than otherwise, I believe they went hunting around and eventually pinned it on AIDS. Thanks for the example.

Read it again: if they are pushed into their grave to a far greater degree by covid-19 as compared to the common cold, then credit where credit is due.

Read it again: if they are pushed into their grave to a far greater degree by covid-19 as compared to the common cold, then credit where credit is do.

Getting back to my comment, it is only with regards to the fact that most people who die of covid-19 illness have preexisting condition, and those conditions would have eventually killed them, but they were pushed to an early grave by covid-19 to a far greater degree than the common cold, so credit where credit is due. As I said, if they are pushed into their grave to a far greater degree by covid-19 as compared to the common cold, then credit where credit is do. EMPHASIS: does the common cold have this effect? If no, then credit covid-19 where credit is due.

When looking at the following, what comes to mind? -People are stupid? -We should be scared? Maybe part of the above answers are right but i would submit that people somehow are trying to get through this, sometimes through trial and error and sometimes the result is not elegant. A nice thing about such a place is that people can share independent thoughts (sometimes with deep convictions). It doesn't mean though that someone who thinks differently is an enemy. ----- Have you seen the latest results for the influenza season (in the US as an example of a global phenomenon)? The point of this is not that we have learnt how to deal effectively with the flu but that there may something to learn if 'we' communicate and collaborate more effectively and in a more constructive way. Congrats, you discovered all influenza deaths are counted as "Corona" deaths. Most heart attacks are even counted as Corono deaths. How else could they inflate the numbers to such a ridiculous degree with a common cold infection? How do people get influenza if working in the house all day and rarely venture out without a mask? If someone who is very ill with COVID has a heart-attack and dies, how would you determine cause? Are you saying the heart-attack was inevitable and would have happened on same day and been fatal without the person being ill? If a 95 year old gets sick with COVID and dies, should we tell their kids and grandkids we don't count the COVID because their remaining life expectancy was so short? Let me invert that for you: 1) How do people get Corona when working in the house all day? (yes Influenza is the same) 2) Well the official numbers if heart attacks is certainly too low a number. Heart attacks didnt suddenly drop 98% and neither did Influenza. They do blood tests on dead people of any cause and if their "test" (which doesnt even test for Corona) cokes back positive they count it as Corona death even if he had zero symptons. Come on people. Certainly you aren't all this retarded? :( 1) Yes, I'm saying that the measures taken to prevent the spread of COVID (a much more dangerous illness) have also prevented the spread of Influenza. 2) Do you have a source for heart attacks declining 98%? I'm reading that deaths from heart disease are up during COVID, presumably because fewer people are seeking medical attention for its symptoms. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-heart-disease-deaths-rose-during-covid-19-surge As for your asssertion about testing dead bodies for COVID to attribute it as a cause of death, do you have a source for that? The topic is covered here: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/19/858390822/with-postmortem-testing-last-responders-shed-light-on-pandemic-s-spread "If family or friends say the person had symptoms consistent with COVID-19, the coroner's office will typically do a nasal swab to test for the virus, he says. If the test is positive and the office can determine the cause of death without an autopsy, one will generally not be performed." ... If a body at the morgue is positive for COVID-19, "you want to avoid doing an autopsy unless it's absolutely necessary," Melinek says, because of the risk of becoming exposed to the virus through aerosolized particles or blood. Plus, she noted, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends against performing autopsies in COVID-19 deaths. Thanks, Eric. But I'm not sure how to parse it. Part of the article seemed to imply COVID deaths were under reported last May (when the article was written) because of a lack of tests for morgues to use? I'm assuming the access to far more testing facilities since has changed that. But if a dead body tests positive for COVID, and so they eschew an autopsy to report COVID as the cause, what percentage of the time is that wrong? If you had terminal cancer, and get COVID, is it wrong to think you would have lived a few months longer without it and your death should be reported as COVID? I've googled looking for explanations but so far come up empty. All I can think is if i get COVID, my ex-wife has a free pass to come over to my house and poison me risk free now. It's more dangerous than I thought! It’s basically a little bit like rock, paper, scissors. Rock beats scissors even though scissors beats paper although in this case it may be a ways (many years) down the road. And in this case paper typically beats rock in the absence of scissors. From a high level, the common cold doesn’t push people into their graves the way covid-19 does, so credit where credit is due. That is a great exaggaration. There are two parts One is hospital acquired Covid-19. https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/problem-covid-19-hospital-acquired-infections "SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19 and unfortunately HSJ found that hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) are not uncommon, estimated to cause almost 1 in 4 hospital COVID-19 cases." Many also get covid and their immunity does take care of it before it spreads. It is the few that go to that next stage that are in trouble. This is explained in the below article (Figure 2). https://rcm.imrpress.com/article/2020/2153-8174/RCM2020264.shtml "The early flu-like stage of viral replication provides a therapeutic window of tremendous opportunity to potentially reduce the risk of more severe sequelae in high risk patients. Precious time is squandered with a “wait and see” approach in which there is no anti-viral treatment as the condition worsens, possibly resulting in unnecessary hospitalization, morbidity, and death. Once infected, the only means of preventing a hospitalization in a high-risk patient is to apply treatment before arrival of symptoms that prompt paramedic calls or emergency room visits." Yet NIH proposes using Remdiisiver after hospitalization, after viral replication and spread. I wonder what Cigarbutt would say if someone proposes treating cancer after it spread through the body. Note: Only for discussion. Please consult your physician for any treatment. I read your "two parts". Can you explain how that relates to my post?

When looking at the following, what comes to mind? -People are stupid? -We should be scared? Maybe part of the above answers are right but i would submit that people somehow are trying to get through this, sometimes through trial and error and sometimes the result is not elegant. A nice thing about such a place is that people can share independent thoughts (sometimes with deep convictions). It doesn't mean though that someone who thinks differently is an enemy. ----- Have you seen the latest results for the influenza season (in the US as an example of a global phenomenon)? The point of this is not that we have learnt how to deal effectively with the flu but that there may something to learn if 'we' communicate and collaborate more effectively and in a more constructive way. Congrats, you discovered all influenza deaths are counted as "Corona" deaths. Most heart attacks are even counted as Corono deaths. How else could they inflate the numbers to such a ridiculous degree with a common cold infection? How do people get influenza if working in the house all day and rarely venture out without a mask? If someone who is very ill with COVID has a heart-attack and dies, how would you determine cause? Are you saying the heart-attack was inevitable and would have happened on same day and been fatal without the person being ill? If a 95 year old gets sick with COVID and dies, should we tell their kids and grandkids we don't count the COVID because their remaining life expectancy was so short? Let me invert that for you: 1) How do people get Corona when working in the house all day? (yes Influenza is the same) 2) Well the official numbers if heart attacks is certainly too low a number. Heart attacks didnt suddenly drop 98% and neither did Influenza. They do blood tests on dead people of any cause and if their "test" (which doesnt even test for Corona) cokes back positive they count it as Corona death even if he had zero symptons. Come on people. Certainly you aren't all this retarded? :( 1) Yes, I'm saying that the measures taken to prevent the spread of COVID (a much more dangerous illness) have also prevented the spread of Influenza. 2) Do you have a source for heart attacks declining 98%? I'm reading that deaths from heart disease are up during COVID, presumably because fewer people are seeking medical attention for its symptoms. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-heart-disease-deaths-rose-during-covid-19-surge As for your asssertion about testing dead bodies for COVID to attribute it as a cause of death, do you have a source for that? The topic is covered here: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/19/858390822/with-postmortem-testing-last-responders-shed-light-on-pandemic-s-spread "If family or friends say the person had symptoms consistent with COVID-19, the coroner's office will typically do a nasal swab to test for the virus, he says. If the test is positive and the office can determine the cause of death without an autopsy, one will generally not be performed." ... If a body at the morgue is positive for COVID-19, "you want to avoid doing an autopsy unless it's absolutely necessary," Melinek says, because of the risk of becoming exposed to the virus through aerosolized particles or blood. Plus, she noted, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends against performing autopsies in COVID-19 deaths. Thanks, Eric. But I'm not sure how to parse it. Part of the article seemed to imply COVID deaths were under reported last May (when the article was written) because of a lack of tests for morgues to use? I'm assuming the access to far more testing facilities since has changed that. But if a dead body tests positive for COVID, and so they eschew an autopsy to report COVID as the cause, what percentage of the time is that wrong? If you had terminal cancer, and get COVID, is it wrong to think you would have lived a few months longer without it and your death should be reported as COVID? I've googled looking for explanations but so far come up empty. All I can think is if i get COVID, my ex-wife has a free pass to come over to my house and poison me risk free now. It's more dangerous than I thought! But some covid-19 deaths will be of the stage 4 cancer variety... I would say that the highest quality digital camera body paired with the sharpest lens will still not shoot a perfect image, but the quality of the image is excellent and obsessing upon a few pixels in the corners of the image is “pixel peeping”.