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Cardboard

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Everything posted by Cardboard

  1. Stories like these have been common for years. I can provide you some examples during the Obama years if you want or during previous presidencies. This is not a new phenomenon. What is new is that every case is now getting the scrutiny from the media. U.S. customs agents have been and continue doing a good job. They want to know what people are coming to do in the country and even with proper papers, they are intimidating. Canadian officers on the other hand are getting the direction of not asking so much that question but, how much can we tax you for what you are bringing in the country? Cardboard
  2. Hey Frank87, he did address the Kansas shooting tonight early in his speech in front of Congress and the Nation. Will you retract your words? Cardboard
  3. Just like Obama was silent on innocent cops being shot in the streets or thousands shots each year in his own city of Chicago. What is surprising is that the Nobel Peace prize winner was silent on that... Cardboard
  4. "For the thousands of Americans murdered every year in the U.S., Obama correctly saw it was too loose gun regulations; Trump thinks it's Muslim terrorists and Mexican rapists and hoodlums. It's American citizens who are doing most of the killings; this is not "fake news"" You are mixing things up. Obama wants gun control like the left. Trump doesn't want it like Republicans and most Libertarians. You have to respect Americans for their own desire. If they want guns and to protect themselves that is their choice. If they want to get rid of it, they would need some kind of referendum. This mentality is not popular in Europe but, it was also the birth place of the worst dictator of all times and so many tyrants throughout history because they had full control. Terrorism, national security and immigration are whole different topics. Maybe that Obama was respected in your part of the world but, he certainly wasn't by Iran, Syria, Russia, North Korea and others. They saw him as weak and tried to abuse him at every possible instance. Cardboard
  5. If they met and being on the same side (Republicans), I think that is a positive. They should try to find a compromise. Cardboard
  6. A major reason is the very left leaning media that plays constantly negative stories on Trump which you did not see under Obama. Everything, and I mean everything, he does is portrayed as negative. It is just like watching Fox News under Obama and I think it is worst since Fox had some restraint. It was more cynical. Don't get me wrong, Obama came out as Mr. Nice guy, but it helps when you have the media in near full adulation. Exact same thing happening in Canada with Trudeau now while Harper was the devil. It still can't be denied that Obama blamed Bush for almost everything. Cardboard
  7. By "broken record" do you mean that Obama did the same thing? Because that is exactly what he did or blaming Bush for 8 years... Trump is just over 1 month into this, so let's see if he will actually fix something or not. If he just blame his predecessor then he will lose my respect just like Obama did. Cardboard
  8. All of this sounds a bit like noise. What are the true options? 1) Keep Fannie/Freddie under conservatorship with NWS aka nationalization. 2) Keep current capital structure, exercise warrant and recap via a secondary offering. 3) Wipe-out current capital structure, recap via an IPO. 4) Buffett idea or only 2% done by private but, that kind of seems like #1 modified. Is there anything else? It should not be so hard for the government/Mnuchin to figure out what has the highest NPV. Cardboard
  9. This thing about funding Obamacare is a terribly weak argument. Money is fungible. If they put the NWS in place to increase government revenues following the sequester, it would be impossible to prove that it was solely for that purpose. And the previous administration got away with way worst than that. Cardboard
  10. Exactly! It is the exact same thing when he can't admit that Coca Cola is bad for you. Same thing when he was all in favour of receiving grants for solar and wind power but, unwilling to pay customers in Vegas to sell back power to the grid. Cardboard
  11. I find interesting that he was quite happy to buy GSE's shares in the past, terrific businesses, etc. but, now it HAS to be done by the government... Suggesting 2% of mortgage insurance business done by private which is quite a bit lower than even Canada.
  12. So Fannie Mae would need $75 billion of fresh, new capital? And what will they do with it? They don't need it today and send billions each year to Treasury. Cardboard
  13. Being new to the story... Why is almost everyone assuming that the preferreds have to be converted into common shares? Do they have to be redeemed or they all are perpetual? If they were simply left outstanding, we are looking at an annual payment of roughly $1 billion/year for Fannie which they obviously can cover. Regarding new capital, both companies obviously don't need any since the government with their Sweep takes everything home and they come back the year after taking again a similar sum with them making the same amount of profits. While I understand that they will need a cushion for leaner years, how much would that be considering that they would build that back relatively quickly without the NWS and their operations being more tightly regulated as they are now. Is Bassel or other applying to them? Cardboard
  14. "This was expected. Just like Hank Paulson said nothing before the take over, Geithner said nothing before the 3rd A and Jack Lew said nothing, ever. The important facts are: he met Watt and Hersanling and assigned a team to work on issues. This is different than previous Administration laying it on top of Congress. Mnuchin continues to be consistent in his views that 8 years is a little too much to wait for reform. Unfortunately, all we have to go by is what he said before he was confirmed. Next move will come when we least expect it. I imagine it will be fine for equity." +1
  15. "For those in congress against gse's, what are the "must haves" vs. the areas that they would be willing to give on?" Good question but, their biggest worry is getting re-elected. So it is all about optics. And how many in the electorate know Fannie and Freddie, what they do and the issues? Blocking everything is certainly not seen as a positive and making a sweet deal for the rich neither. So it has to be some form of compromise. So favour home ownership for all by keeping GSE's strong, regulate them tightly to avoid future taxpayers risk and strike a deal with investors that is fair or meeting American tradition. Cardboard
  16. I decided to buy some preferreds for the first time today. I wanted to get ahead of Mnuchin talking tomorrow. Will probably buy more after that and more research. I like the odds. This is a business friendly administration, Fannie Mae has been in business since 1938 and the U.S. mortgage market needs these entities. I can't see nationalization nor liquidation. The way forward IMO is being public entities with strict control or similar to Bassel, Fed stress tests and Dodd-Frank with the banks. They are already being dictated by FHFA to decrease the size of their portfolio and to focus more on guaranty. So they will be less profitable than pre-2008 but, will still be awesome businesses. It is possible that the old preferred's get wiped-out in the process described above or all legacy capital. I see that as a distant probability. In any case, the government will make money and that will look good. I find interesting that their share was set at 79.9% of ownership for both in 2008. Is there any rule that was preventing to go above 80%? Cardboard
  17. "Great job Schmucko (stay douchey!)" While you are at name calling... I am going to have right now a good glass of Knob Creek 100 proof with ice and regular Coke thinking of you .......! While I like the taste and the feeling, I am fully aware of the side effects on physical and mental health. I am glad Scott if pot does not contribute to your depression and actually decreases it. I have to say that I have seen too often the ravages that it had on many people. Cardboard
  18. I would keep on smoking pot and maybe accelerate for your chronic depression then schizophrenia might end up being another thing to watch for. ::) Cardboard
  19. You may find that funny but, I have personally seen the stress and fear experienced by very good and competent Canadian people afraid to lose their jobs to Mexico. Moreover, when the Canadian dollar moved up due to oil in the 2000's it was a big problem and there was nothing these folks could do despite them improving their productivity by a lot. I was also involved in multiple sourcing studies so I also know the politics that sometime go into this including fudging of numbers on both sides. Some get promoted for immediate savings, etc. Some lie. When these are done properly, you realize quickly that the lure of lower wages does not always compensate for inventory issues, speed to market and true productivity among others. Cardboard
  20. I watched it on Yahoo last year and it really does the job vs scrambling to attend it in an over-crowded arena. Never having been there despite thinking about it many times, I can`t say about the rest being worth the expense. Cardboard
  21. Things were not doing well for me not that long ago. It seemed that I could do no right in my personal and investment life. And it turned... Now I look at the Patriots tonight and wow! Cardboard
  22. If you add the Black Lives Matter to the list then I will fully agree with you. Moderation and truth has to come from every side. Not just one. Cardboard
  23. Valcont, "BTW this piece of crap isn't even a US citizen. He is some greek trash imported from Britain. Why can't he be thrown out of this country? I really want to know what kind of visa this lowlife is on." "Yes go back to your firing range and join an urban militia to confront all these lefties who are threatening your shitty way of life. And don't lecture me on civility, learn how to be a decent human being first." Don't you think it is time for you to calm down? If I read this thread, it is definitely more the left than the right that has a violence and discrimination problem. We are being called trolls, we should shut up, etc. I started this as a joke with the countdown and see where this is going. Cardboard
  24. "In 2000 the economy was doing well and then republicans won the presidency with a program of top end tax cuts and deregulation and then bricked the economy." "It pays for people to have short memories i guess." RB, RB, RB... You don't remember that crash starting in March of 2000? Clinton was still in office. There was talks that this was the start of the 2nd Great Depression and by none other than Prem Watsa. The trajectory of the crash on the Nasdaq was near identical to 1929. A bubble of monumental size had just popped and with it defaults on margin accounts, Silicon Valley was not doing well at all, Nortel imploded. Then it was WorldCom, Tyco, Enron. The entire utility sector near imploded. The whole thing did not stop until 2002-2003. While 911 did occur during that period, I still believe that this crash would have followed a largely similar course. Things were not pretty and I recall vividly looking at the rate on U.S. long term treasuries in 2002 and being scared to death about a real depression being in the works. In any case, if you want to say that Obama inherited a bad economy: fair. If you want to say that Trump inherited a good economy: fair. If you want to say that Bush inherited a good economy when he got into office in January 2001: unfair. Cardboard
  25. I think that I will update the countdown everyday for our friends from the Left. ;D And what a pick for the Supreme Court last night: http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/donald-trump-supreme-court-announcement/ And he should last well beyond Trump! Cardboard
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