SharperDingaan

Couple of other things to consider ...... Most of the world's underground activity relies on physical USD cash being available; the problem is that cash wears out with use, it's bulky in quantity, everybody is trying to steal it, and you're reliant upon the US Federal Reserve continuing to print more of it. There is a cost to laundering it, and the more you have the harder it is to hide. At scale, most everything about this is utter sh1te! But Lenny, ... if all we have to do is exchange our cash stash on hand, for this token .... no questions asked! Trillions upon trillions flow into this token, with success all but assured .... and when individual states can also buy the token as investments, but don't have to sell as its value goes up ..... they aren't going to be too aggressive in attempting to kill the golden goose. Of course the issuer can track the movement, but it's really no different to the tracking of BTC today. Gotta love BTC protocol! Pay your annual 2% to the Fed, and we'll leave you alone; and really no different to the Vatican paying for protection against its priceless treasures being stolen. And all .... at a lot cheaper than today's security and laundry costs. America innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates. Suck a good chunk of the illegal money out of China, and trade negotiation gets a whole lot more interesting. Musk put the Tesla 'Rocket Man' into space as a payload hauling 'proof of concept'. Maybe he also puts the 'Orange Man' into cyberspace, via a 'meme' that starts it all? .... if it works out. SD

It's just a test of concept; if the long-term adoption proves out as everybody hopes, it's coming back in a re-branded form. Think of a countries currency as a meme, that is exchangeable against it's strategic BTC reserves. The meme being used to settle global trade payments, and the exchange rate set at an arbitrary 1,000 meme: to 1 BTC in the US Strategic Reserve. What have you just done ? Replaced the USD as the globes reserve currency. Turned the USD meme into an inflation proof hard currency, not that dissimilar to the old gold standard. Multiplied the effective quantity of your BTC reserve by 1,000; and removed the need for a CBDC with its privacy and banking issues. Very smart, very elegant ..... if the masses actually adopt it. Hence, try it out via a test of concept. SD

Tuesday isn't either SD

Some added detail. It's hardly surprising that Alberta is so pissed; and frankly, good on them ... Per another board: https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19168&mn=601428&pt=msg&mid=25349177 Comments on Danielle Smith and "Team Canada"- An Alberta Viewpoint. I may no longer be in politics, but some issues are too important to stay silent on. Danielle Smith is taking a strong stand against Ottawa’s reckless proposal to ban Alberta’s energy exports. I strongly support her efforts, and I hope you will too. For years, Alberta has been let down by Ottawa and by provinces that put up roadblocks to getting our resources to market. Now, federal politicians are floating the idea of banning Alberta’s energy exports entirely. Danielle has been clear: Alberta will not stand for policies that threaten our economy and livelihoods. Some suggest we need a “Team Canada” approach. That idea might carry more weight if there had ever been a Team Canada working to support Alberta in the past. Unfortunately, history tells a very different story: Where was “Team Canada” when Northern Gateway was vetoed in 2016, losing us 525,000 barrels per day in export capacity? Instead of addressing the court’s requirements for Indigenous consultation, the federal government killed the project outright and banned tankers on the northwest coast. Where was “Team Canada” when Energy East was cancelled in 2017? Quebec and Ontario imposed unnecessary, duplicative reviews, creating endless regulatory uncertainty. Ottawa offered no support, and the project was lost, along with the chance to ship 1 million barrels per day to the East Coast. Where was “Team Canada” when provinces like British Columbia blocked pipelines? B.C. imposed unconstitutional conditions on Trans Mountain, which the courts struck down in 2019. Before that, in 2018, they tried to restrict diluted bitumen shipments, threatening Alberta’s economy and delaying progress. And where is “Team Canada” now? Ottawa has imposed Bill C-69, the “No More Pipelines” Act, and an unconstitutional production cap. They’re introducing electricity regulations that harm Alberta’s competitiveness and passing laws like Bill C-59 that silence the voices supporting Alberta’s energy. So forgive Albertans if we’re skeptical of a federal “Team Canada” approach that seems designed to landlock our resources and harm our economy. Maybe if there had been real support in the past, we wouldn’t be in this position now. Danielle Smith is fighting to protect Alberta’s oil and gas industry from Ottawa’s latest reckless idea—an export ban on Alberta energy. She’s fighting for your jobs, your community, and Alberta’s future. This is about defending Alberta’s place in Canada and ensuring we have the freedom to develop our resources, create jobs, and grow our economy. Sincerely, Hon. Sonya Savage, KC Former Minister of Energy SD

Federal law only prevails at the national border (ie: an export out of Canada); whereas everywhere within a province, or between provinces, it is a provincial jurisdiction. A complication; is that oil/gas produced in Alberta, but sold at BC tide-water, is a matter between BC/Ottawa (where it leaves Canada) and not Alberta/Ottawa (where it is produced in Canada). Ottawa can impose a tax; but not actually stop the flow, unless the province with the egress also agrees to it. The Albertan premier deserves huge kudos for NOT caving to the Team Canada pressure. The straight-forward solution is a (tariff offsetting) federal export tax on US bound oil/gas, plus the proceeds from a modified carbon tax, funding new pipe going east, west, and north under a guarantee from the rest of Canada. Confederation type guarantee; no bull-shit, no veto's, no hostage taking via environmental assessments, etc, etc. The country building of national pipe, being no different to the country building of a CP/CN rail, the Trans-Canada Highway, or an Air Canada, etc. Inter-provincial trade barriers are by far, the worst trade impediments Canada has; hence it's a tough nut to crack, you need hard ass premiers, and Canada first. No holds barred blunt conversation taking place behind the barn. As in most family discussions, they're not that far apart, but it's very much play nice, or cave to the enemy (Trump). Your choice. SD

My own view is that it's either a Conservative/NDP minority, with the Conservatives on top, and the Liberals/Bloc in opposition; or a NDP/Liberal minority with the NDP on top, and the Conservatives/Bloc in opposition. Of the two; the NDP/Liberal (Singh/Carney) being the preferred combination. Back in the day, the Conservatives pissed off Atlantic Canada so much; that the response was vote 'Anyone But Conservative' (ABC). It resulted in a total shut-out for the Conservatives across Atlantic Canada. Just as there was incredible country-wide resentment with Trudeau, as per the ubiquitous F*** T****** sticker; there is a similar distrust of Poilievre, and a similar ABC response. While Trudeau was PM it wasn't visible (as Trudeau was disliked more than Poilievre), but with Trudeau now gone .... Poilievre is a lightning rod, and it's storming outside. It isn't possible to win a majority in Canada without at least either Ontario or Quebec also voting in a majority of Conservative candidates. Hard to see that occurring while Poilievre remains as the Conservative leader. Not that different to Harris having to take over from Biden during the recent US election. But unlike the US, this is much more likely to be decided upon based on leadership/experience/push-back, than populist rhetoric. SD

Carney vs Poilievre is no contest, Poilievre loses; hence the current conservative political framing around Carney being an 'elitist', and not 'one of us'. The man comes from Fort Smith and Edmonton, hardly elitist!; yet was good enough to compete against the best in the world, at their own game, and win .. repeatedly (but 'no', can't have that, that's elitist!). Versus Poilievre who is the 5th consecutive leadership replacement in TEN YEARS of REPEATEDLY failing to even make a minority government. Carney also plays the goalie in ice hockey, and is no stranger to forwards taking shots and adroit stick handling; Poilievre .... not so much. Should Carney actually be the Liberal choice, there is a distinct possibility that Canada ends up with another minority government, and not a majority. Despite the current 20%+ lead, the conservatives would have blown it, AGAIN; and the insurance policy will get cashed in. No political preference. We just want good governance, and experienced leadership that can push back against Trump. The colour of their party is pretty irrelevant. SD

I hear you ! ..... Agreed that long term, there needs to be wide-spread change across North America, and it will not happen in the various fiefdoms without a lot of furniture getting broken. As in all rough hockey and team development; everyone has to go through the forming, storming, norming and performing stages. It isn't pleasant, bullying is part of the process, and everyone has to learn how to bite back. The good news is that material change does occur, it happens quickly, and with everyone either on the same page or road kill. Short term, one can expect it to get very ugly and very fast; routine bench clearings at the drop of a stick, injuries everywhere, strong coaching, and a lot of broken teeth. Hence the need to be favouring cash, and hedging wherever practical; so as to be able to buy back later once the blood has frozen to the ice. Back in the day it took Pearl Harbour to wake the Americans up to the global threats they were facing, and it happened again with 9/11; this time around it's 'us' getting woken up. Ultimately it was good thing .... but there was a lot of damage in the getting there. Sometimes the dust-up behind the barn to 'clear the air', is not a bad thing; medics and dentists can do amazing things, but it's best to be out of the elephants way. SD

Bought my first shares in FFH way back when SAC was trying to put FFH under. Everything about it was just flat out wrong; and super pissed about it, I bought some shares cheap, and found COBF. Crip, Dazel, and a few others were the main posters at the time ... and I learnt at the feet of the many masters. Hopefully; I gave back as much as I learnt! We haven't been in FFH for many years, but periodically visit as dividend, climate change, and short attack (MW) opportunities present. Had CS not blown up, and the BTC-ETF not become a 'thing', we would probably be using FFH as one of our 'near' cash equivalents FFH is a great learning experience, but all fledglings eventually need to leave the nest and do their own thing. Today, we're good enough at risk management that we can comfortably afford the higher risks that we take, and earn that higher 'Sharpe' ratio. There's a reason for the 'Sharper' in SharperDingaan! Good luck to all. SD

'Immigration' has always been used as a wedge towards obtaining power. The more one can keep the different communities 'separate', and the less face-to-face 'mixing' in everyday life, the more effectively it can be weaponized; in some places, it's just easier to manipulate than in others. Millions of people, across factory floors and offices, work alongside immigrants every day .. with little issue; but oddly, that's seldom if ever mentioned The reality is that within Europe there are just too many people, in too small a place, hence everything has to be very 'controlled'. If that isn't for you, then just visit, as you really need to either live or invest elsewhere. SD

Just to throw out some numbers ..... for simplicity assume just one seller, and one US buyer refining Alberta crude. No tariffs. 100 bbl sold @ USD 60 world price; seller gets USD 6,000, refiner pays USD 6,000. > US 25% tariff. 100 bbl sold @ USD 60; seller gets USD 6,000, tariff collector gets USD 1,500 (25%), refiner pays USD 7,500. US consumer pays more. But the refiner can only pay USD 6,000 ...... > US 25% tariff. 100 bbl sold @ USD 60; seller gets USD 4,800, tariff collector gets USD 1,200 (25%), refiner pays USD 6,000. Producer gets 12% less revenue on the same 100 bbl sold. Need a solution .... Cut US bound production to 80 bbls, sold at a higher price. Sell the remaining 20 bbls to Asia from BC tidewater. > US 25% tariff. 80 bbl sold @ USD 60; seller gets USD 4,800, tariff collector gets USD 1,200 (25%), refiner pays USD 6,000. US consumer pays more as the refiners cost is now USD 75/bbl, and in the short-term the refiner can't refine crude from anywhere else. > No US 25% tariff. 20 bbl sold to Asia @ USD 60; seller gets USD 1,200. Producer gets a total of USD 6.000 (4,800 + 1,200) on the 100 bbl sold. As long as the new west coast pipe and rail has the capacity; the only folks getting hurt here are the US consumer, and it is the US tariff collector that has their money. And if that BC tidewater buyer is US tariff exempt ..... they merely sail a tanker down the west coast, and sell the crude to the refiner at a very profitable USD 75/bbl less costs. The way out is new and big pipe going south. Drop the tariffs, double production, spread the costs over a bigger base, and everybody wins. SD

Canada and the US did a lot better than Europe, primarily 'cause there was so much space, it was far from Europe, and there were way more critters than there were people. Wherever one was from, one literally either banded together to survive/thrive, or croaked. The classes were forced to mix/melt together, success did the talking for you, and the most ambitious young men/women fled the constraints of the 'old country' to make their fortune in the 'new world'. Change. In the 'old country' millions of people live in a small space, all on top of each other. Everything ONLY goes well so long as there is a swim lane for everyone, and everyone stays in their lane! Mass immigration, and keeping those immigrants separate in ghettos, screws up the order! No change. When you run out of space, one creates change by burning down the old, and being part of the rebuild. There is a reason why the disruptive have been so successful. SD

Cultures 'breathe', and they do it via population growth and immigration. When nations economically expand too quickly, age too quickly, have a long-term birth rate/fertile women < 2.00, etc. the worker shortfall has to be made up via waves of immigration. That cumulative immigration over time, causes the culture to 'breathe', and evolve with the times. Not a bad thing, but it means continuous change, and many aren't good with change. Long time ago, a Canadian Mountie had to be male, white, 6' 2"+, wear the postcard uniform, and be pretty much single. Of course, the times changed, the stream of suitable recruits dried up, and the RCMP were forced to either disband, or adapt. Today, the Canadian Mountie looks a whole lot different, and in a good way. At the time the decision was made, people were outraged!; unable to get past the reality that the postcard vision was history. Time goes by, those outraged are now all either dead or in nursing homes, and it's just no longer an issue. Of course, if you're trying to take power ... it's not what you want to promote. SD

This is a pretty wide practice today; your broker very likely already offers this, as most BTC-ETF's are margin eligible. If you're putting up BTC itself, SALT lending is pretty representative of LTV and interest rate https://saltlending.com/. Same general structure as a Home Equity Line of Credit, but at a 70% LTV, and a 9% + interest rate; expectation is that you pay back the loan as/when you are able. SD

My vote is for the Shawinigan Handshake ... coming to you as soon as possible, and even in the right colour https://troududiable.com/en/beers/shawinigan-handshake/ The original clip .... giving a protester's head a friendly shake. https://canadaehx.com/2021/02/06/the-shawinigan-handshake/ Now if this were licensed to every brewery in Canada, and the licensing fee given to local food banks to buy food, that would be REAL protest! SD

Not really. All that really happens is that one borrows against the Bitcoin, and uses the borrowed funds to make the actual payment; via fiat, lightning, etc, etc. Pisses off the taxman as there is never a trade of the Bitcoin collateral, and therefore no tax, EVER! (as long as the money printer continues to spin). Truly elegant SD

NO, he's one-trick pony and has been for a long time, a bad Trump mimic, wants to get rid of the governor of the Bank of Canada https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-bank-of-canada-audit-1.6433860 ..... and as the Prime Minister in waiting while Canada is under attack, the best he can come with is 'I'm not the Prime Minister' and endless repetition of the 'Axe the Tax' slogan ?. So bad ... that a 91 year old had to step up to the plate, 'cause this pony can't lead worth sh!te. If the conservatives do not win a landslide majority with their current 20%+ lead, he's out. If there's another minority government, he's out. He was there to get rid of Trudeau, and with Trudeau now gone, he's a liability. And much as Trump suddenly lost much of his lead in the recent US election when Harris showed up ... most would expect something similar with Trudeau now gone. This Is Canada, good governance prevails, the colour of the party is no big deal, and it doesn't go well for posers; especially when Canada is under threat. SD

Great op-ed piece from a former prime-minister .... "Ever since Mr. Trump’s attacks, every political party is speaking out in favour of Canada. In fact, it is to my great satisfaction that even the Bloc Québécois is defending Canada. But you don’t win a hockey game by only playing defence. We all know that even when we satisfy one demand, Mr. Trump will come back with another, bigger demand. That’s not diplomacy; it’s blackmail." "Let’s tell Mr. Trump that we too have border issues with the United States. Canada has tough gun control legislation, but illegal guns are pouring in from the U.S. We need to tell him that we expect the United States to act to reduce the number of guns crossing into Canada. We also want to protect the Arctic. But the United States refuses to recognise the Northwest Passage, insisting that it is an international waterway, even though it flows through the Canadian Arctic as Canadian waters." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-jean-chretien-canadian-leaders-donald-trump-plan/#comments SD

Sadly the reality is that most people just aren't comfortable with change, and will simply deny as denial translates into continued business as usual within the gilded cage. It isn't people being stupid, it's just people being human. The other reality is that a disproportionate % of BTC adopters come from places where people have lost futures to central bank/government, via wars/social unrest, state intervention, rampant inflation, etc, etc. There's a reason for that - the you can fool me once .... but it ain't ever happening again! And if those people are also very smart and capable? ... you get a wicked protocol Of course, the way out ... is BTC backed Treasury Bills; with the nations BTC reserve offsetting the ongoing T-Bill loss to inflation. All longer term bonds left unprotected ... in the expectation that upon maturity the inflation difference between the asset built and debt issued to fund it, falls on the economy. Bigger the deficit, the bigger the benefit. SD

Poilievre is a nut case, but will probably be Canada's next Prime Minister. With Trudeau now gone, Poilievre has also now become a liability to his party, and an insurance policy against a blow-up. Best outcome is an early screw up, and a replacement as soon as possible. The US buys its heavy crude net of a differential charge that covers the cost of transport and a discount to use it; pre the TMP expansion easing egress, a typical USD 22/bbl. Today, with the TMP expansion, USD 12/bbl is more usual. This differential is the 'cheap oil' subsidy that Poilievre is referring to. The US can either buy CDN, Mexican, or Venezuelan crude; the oilsands is the 3rd largest oilfield in the world, and Alaskan gas needs to pass through Canada on its way to US refineries. Turkeys can strut all they want, but ultimately there will be a deal. The best outcome for everyone is new, and big pipe, going south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mackenzie_Valley_Pipeline https://northern-pipeline.canada.ca/5 SD

A lot more than we would prefer; 50%+ of our equity holdings plus a bunch more in our fixed income, at a BTC cost equivalent in the low 90's. Assuming it's a great party, we do very well; we do even better if tariffs start off at a blanket 25%. Shitty way of making a buck, but a very good way of ensuring that we live to fight another day. SD

Inclined to agree. Our own view is that everything is at 25% on Day-1; and reduced as/when he gets what we wants over the first 90-120 days or so, with no opposition from Canada. Once the new parliament is installed, things start resembling what economic commentators are expecting. For o/g we would expect a Keystone 2.0+ completed/delivering within 4 years, and an exemption from Carbon Tax on all production going south; Alberta/Canada arguing similarity to GST/HST/VAT, in that the carbon emission is attributable to the end-user and not the producers in the supply chain. Kyoto accords looking brilliant as all the CO2 produced in mining/processing travels with the end product; adults finally in the room SD

We have sold 50% of our oil/gas and split the proceeds over T-Bills and a BTC-ETF. Just don't think o/g gets zero rated right out the gate, and we expect that BTC will resemble the champagne popped at the celebration. It goes our way, we could make our ENTIRE years return in maybe 2 months. SD

The smart thing of course is to use the threat to take down interprovincial trade barriers, and install national energy, agriculture, mining and rail/marine policies. Would never happen without Trump, but with Trump as the common enemy doing real harm to everyone, it becomes a different calculation. Survive, adapt, and your enemies make you stronger. SD

What are the thoughts ?? as this is a material disruption ... even if it doesn't actually happen, or at lower than advertised tariff rates. Toss up as to whether this in inflationary, and whether it results in higher interest rates. In Canada, it's highly likely that CAD falls like a brick, and most all consumables (imported food, Costco/Walmart products, etc) become way more expensive (ie: inflation). At the same time, unemployment goes through the roof as nobody is buying anymore, and there's no money to buy those consumables in anywhere near the same quantities (ie: deflation). Ambiguous, therefore Interest rates come down at maybe 25bp every 2nd setting. Strong case for lower tariffs on oil/gas, electricity, and potash; but as a lower tariff straight off ? or as a blanket 25% at start that is subsequently negotiated down over 'X' months ? Canadian election results are not going to be known until June at best; or July until new ministers are in place. 5-6 months until negotiated tariff reductions .... if any. The NAFTA agreement, and Mexico, are also part of this. Are tariff gains lost to NAFTA compensation settlements?, and are Americans up to paying a lot more for what they buy? Components made in China/EU/Mexico/Canada (subject to tariff), but assembled in the US, are all immediately going to cost more. None of this seems to be good in either the near to medium term. SD