SharperDingaan

Agreed, a lot of people are hurting, and opportunity is not the same for everyone. The reality is that it is not 1975 Canada anymore, it is 2025 Canada; the times have changed, and the opportunities for the same age cohorts are materially different today versus what they were. In the entire world .... and even before Trump. Easier is relative. It has always been hard to get ahead, and the ever changing times have required ever different approaches. If you got out and did, there were opportunities, and things have gotten better for women; but you had to do. Not what many want to hear. In 1975, the young man who wanted to get ahead worked the mines in Ontario's Ring of File, slept in a draughty bunkhouse with 6 others, and put their money into local mining stocks (dog sh1te); if you hit it lucky it bought you a Toronto house mortgage free. The young woman had a lot fewer opportunities. In 1990, the young man who wanted to get ahead worked Fort McMurray, slept in a better bunkhouse with 20 others, and put their money into local o/g stocks (dog sh1te); if you hit it lucky it bought you the same sized Toronto house mortgage free. The young woman got to be trades apprentices, if they could break the ice. Bigger money, bigger prices. In 2015, the young man who wanted to get ahead worked the Tech co's, slept in a rented house with 3-4 others, and put their money into local tech stocks (dog sh1te); if you hit it lucky it also bought you the same sized Toronto house mortgage free. The young woman got to be equals, if they could break into the boys club. Again, bigger money, better prices. In 2025, the young man and woman, who want to get ahead work the infrastructure build out, sleep in a co-ed bunkhouse with 20 others, and put their money into utilities/start-ups; if you hit it lucky it again buys you the same sized Toronto house mortgage free. The young woman have trades, are equals, and some have their own companies. Again, bigger money, better prices. Your first job is sh1te, and you live in a sh1te-hole in the middle of nowhere, until you can raise the funds required to get a better place elsewhere; the way it's always been. A new immigrant family opens a restaurant as the best way of using their labour that is otherwise unemployable. There is no guarantee that life will be better than it was for the previous generation; life will be what you make of the opportunities you have, or choose to make elsewhere. Some will thrive, other's will not; the same as it has always been. SD

We do a similar thing around small/mid cap SAGD oil sands extraction. Today's players benefiting from expanding production, lower differentials and eventual acquisition by larger players. In the meantime, there's a healthy cash dividend and ongoing share buybacks to help with taking your capital back. SD

Lots of opportunities, but experience/strategy should drive the choice .... > Most all of the engineering on these projects will be Canadian .... benefit via engineering employment. > Pipeline, wires, carbon capture ... utilities for their income to service a growing family/mortgage. > Oil sands, small/mid caps ... the big gains funding the RRSP/TFSA/etc and paying off the mortgage. Keep in mind that the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline corridor houses 2 pipelines; the 300K b/d 1953 pipe, and the 590K b/d 2025 pipe. It is highly likely that the new 1,000K b/d pipe is actually a rip out and replace of the existing 1953 pipe .. with a 2nd new pipe of 700K b/d + related loops. Continuation of existing permitting, transit in an existing corridor, and the main environmental concern being around how the hazardous old 75 year pipe is removed/recycled; hard for an environmentalist to argue against. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_Mountain_pipeline Then keep in mind that down the road, a success could well result in smaller dimension additional pipe in the same corridor. State of the art refining has moved to Asia; and security of supply dictates existence of an alternative NA large scale state of the art refinery. Alberta/Sask is an obvious choice, with new pipe carrying refined product. SD

The reality is that build big, also means big change, and folks aren't good with change. Trudeau left the building a while back; ongoing comparison to the Trudeau era, just evidences difficulty in accepting that change. Lot of folks have vested interest in the 'old ways' continuing. The 'old ways' go out the door, they aren't relevant anymore, and don't know what to do (media, retired politicians); reinvention/early-retirement is a dirty world, and a scary place for those who haven't prepared. If you have small kids, reinvention happens every day; whereas, if you haven't done anything since they left home ... it is quite different. The MOU is just an agreed upon industrial policy, if the potential project is not economic it doesn't get built. However, absent the MOU, it isn't possible to even build the project business case for evaluation. Times are a changing. SD

You aren't going to work at a FFH until you already have a great deal of experience at the major Lifeco's, P&C's, and Banks; Union Card - part I. You will also need an MBA, and at least a recent completion of CFA-level II; Union Card - part II. Thereafter, true to yourself, differentiation from the rest of the pack, and a record of successfully walking the talk. When everybody looks the same, and they are all very good, you can only do as well as everyone else. To stand out you need to be in the right hand tail; either because you're that very rare savant, or because you're that rare one-off outlier. The one who holds up his hand and demonstrates to the prospective boss that his company is one of only five that you want to work for, you're here to learn from the best, and his job is safe for now 'cause it will take you 3 years to learn this portion of the business. Hire you now, or have you beat on the door everyday until you eventually do; time is a wasting! Your interview will be memorable! you will meet them again at various events, and if you actually do as you say; at some point there will be a callback, if only to see such an arrogant bastard fall flat on his/her face. But Lenny .... if you can actually walk the talk, and amongst the best, the things you can build! Back in the day, there used to be MITI; today, it is the rebuilding of Canada's infrastructure. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_International_Trade_and_Industry Good luck SD

The old habits/squabbles only work where there is little/slow change; they very quickly become obsolete, when the gales blow and the focus changes to getting it done, versus political gotcha. There hasn't been such a recent matter-of-fact minority government budget dare/non-confidence vote ... in a very long time. The chattering class, and political newshounds, are still coming to terms with it. The reality is that if Canada becomes the 51st state, or Alberta chooses a referendum, BC looses badly; the discussion is how, not whether XYZ is to occur. Similarly if Quebec wishes to retain the French language, it is very unlikely if Canada is a 51st state. We all do a lot better if we fight our provinces, work together to grow the pie, and work to grow our markets everywhere but the US. Rough hockey, and common sense, that raises the game of everyone; disputes resolved the old fashioned way, behind the barn. The Trudeau era was all about distribution, and arguably the pendulum swung too far; the reality is that you cant distribute what you don't have. The new era is all about growing the pie and distributing once its done; the pendulum swinging back. Now it's just who has the better managers, and the 'Dollar a Year' men/women to make it happen; tribal politics are largely irrelevant. For those who have spent their working lives in politics, it's a scary world SD

Thing is ..... Trudeau has left the building, and it is pretty clear that the doors are now wide open and a gale is blowing through. It's a new world, history isn't representative, and long overdue change is just getting started. While change creates fear, it also creates opportunity; and it is primarily the young that will most benefit. There are few better places to be if you're willing to grab the brass ring, and build .... versus simply trade bits of paper. There's a reason why the major projects office is attracting the next dollar a year men in droves. All good. SD

It's a solid thesis ... but a couple of caveats. Gas pricing (& news headlines) are local, not global. WCSB gas is so cheap because there is ever increasing associated depletion related supply, limited egress, and only one big user (oil sands). Add to it than when a shale formation is not water flooded, a higher gas cut typically replaces the lower oil/ngl cut; and all that gas clears via a discounted price. Increase egress (via LNG export), there is less domestic supply to clear, and it sells at a higher domestic price. As LNG sells at the much higher world price less transport cost less marketing discount; anything > domestic price is a pure value add to the patch. Nukes will replace oil sands gas usage (the major CO2 source) as soon as it is practical. Most would expect the displaced gas to flow out via additional LNG exports, and oil sand profitability to rise as CO2 emissions materially decline. Hence, all of the BC dredging (tankers now loading to 100% vs 70% capacity), the tidewater LNG pipe, and Alberta/Sask CO2 pipe (Pathways Alliance), are game changers. Great future for WCSB. Different story in the Permian. There is too much gas for the existing egress, it is significantly increasing as shale depletes, and without a big new user ... there will be more occasions when it is cheaper to simply flare versus transport it. Same commodity, different story line, but different location. Good luck. SD

The US had its day in the sun and grew GNP faster than the population; whereas Canada ... not so much. Of course, every wheel turns ... The long overdue reinvestment in Canadian infrastructure, defence industry, and reduced immigration, should raise Canada's productivity pretty quickly. Hard to say the same for the US ... as with 10x the population of Canada, their GNP change needs to be 10x that of Canada - just to stay even. Canada could also scale up raw material production, and process it locally vs export it, to make pipe, rail, and weapons/munitions domestically (jets, artillery/mortar shells, air/sea drones, equipment, etc.) for export to other non US NATO allies - all at no tariffs, and at the expense of the US. It matters, as everywhere more productive that the US - will drain capital out of the US. US tariffs that both reduce trade, and GNP, further reducing productivity. The iffy value of a US signature on any kind of trade related deal (CUSMA), and questionable ability to keep financing existing debt, further poisoning the well. Add to it the crowding out when many other sovereigns are now materially borrowing at the same time, and US interest rates will also be a hot higher. None of this good for GNP. Canada also has solid engineering capabilities, the largest Ukrainian population outside of the Ukraine, and they are very good at air/sea drones. Rather than manned submarines to patrol Canada's coasts, and under the ice; little prevents a drone from hovering for months at a time - above/below the ice. It is yesterdays man that is in trouble ... SD

There is no change in transaction time; the less CPU power on line, the easier the hash is made so that it will still take the 10 minutes to do. SD

Finally unwound this pair trade at around USD 92K; leaving our gain in CJ, at an annual dividend yield of 12%. Materially improved our diversification, but we probably left money on the table; c'est la vie. While BTC-ETF may still dip a bit, the worst is probably over. It just wasn't worth the risk to delaying, as should BTC simply mean revert and close the year at USD 100K; we would be up another 8%. Quite possibly a lot more, if Trump shows up. Good luck! SD

Inclined to think it's liquidity related, biased downward for another 5% or so, then a managed 'recovery'. Simply because treasurers around the world have just been reminded that BTC ONLY has a positive carry, IF it doesn't have to be sold down to pay bills. When there is a need to draw down under stress - BTC cannot be treated as a T-Bill (with a nominal liquidity discount). To get the funds back .... the BTC (at its now lower price) holding has to be retained, and borrowed against, vs sold. This event cost people credibility, bonus, and was not in the use case sold. Given the experience, most would expect a hold on new BTC purchases (and opportune BTC liquidations), while Investment Policies are reassessed and re-approved; at least 1-4 months. Hopefully, all goes well, and we're back in BTC-ETF again a little before that happens Good luck to all. SD

Trump and co. Kill the golden goose, and there ain't any money to feed Erics crypto. SD

USD 95,059.89 at present, BTC-ETF's experiencing large withdrawals (therefore BTC selling in quantity), and not enough buyers. Have to think that some of the wanna-be MSTR's will have to shed some of their BTC into this, along with the forced retail margin sales, and some of the miner inventory. MSTR is calming nerves for a reason .... promising all is 'safe'. BTC drops enough, there will be an intervention; the mystery is how extensive, and at what price point. Lot of ways it could go, but one has to think that one of the consequences is that it brings implementation of a stable coin digital dollar a lot nearer. Not a bad thing. Anecdotally earlier this year we put on a paired swing trade, selling BTC-ETF cheap to buy Canadian o/g even cheaper. For the longest time it was impossible to unwind at a gain as both legs had risen 45%+ in price. Now, it would seem that if BTC keeps dropping, we'll be unwinding with gains on both legs. We continue to pray ; but this would have been unbelievable, even as short as a month ago. Times are a changing. SD

Agreed it's possible to create a wallet on your own. Point here is that you used a platform (github.com) to get the tool, and there will be a server record of the downloaded bip39 code to the IP address. Should there also be an on-ramp registration somewhere ... a name is traceable to that IP address. Agreed it's possible to circumvent discovery, but that isn't most people. For most people, anonymity rests on an anonymous live-time transaction, continuous reset of once/done public ID's, dilution within a large and growing number of total wallets, no pledging against the holding, few/no wallet transactions over a long period of time, and wallet creation by someone else who is now dead. Thereafter; use of the account, similar to use of a burner phone. The more you use, or pledge against your wallet, the less anonymity you have. Not a popular view SD

Somebody sold you access to the platform/tools used to create the wallet. Your activity is on their server. That somebody can track the ID used to the wallet created, only the transactions in/out of the wallet are anonymous. Of course the ID used might have been false .... but even that has limitations. Meeting in a dark back alley to exchange gold/cash also doesn't work as nothing prevents a video/audio recording of the transaction from afar, and there is a need to cross the physical/digital interface. Receiving the BTC left a trail from the sellers wallet to the buyers wallet. SD

At the present price of USD 104,375, USD 150,000 in 5 years is a CAGR of 7.52%; not very high. Highly likely that BTC either takes less than 5 years to reach USD 150,000, or is a lot higher than USD 150,000 in 5 years. Of course the CAGR doesn't mean straight line appreciation, but it does point strongly to catalyst sensitivity. Most would expect a higher future price as the institutional use changes; but how high is just a guess. BTC will always be an anonymous and secure form of money, moving between wallets; but someone always knows who you are ... 'cause they issued your wallet. BTC alone, just facilitates anonymous live time transaction settlement, with limited identity .... and is essentially a digital version of the Swiss Bank Account We have the Gold standard 'cause gold is rare; we will have the BTC standard for similar reasons. The mystery is how that eventually manifests .... the token approach of the eYuan run on Bank of China servers, or the leveraged stable-coin approach where the BTC collateral is held at the central bank? Evolution points to a joint CB collateral depository, and the resultant coin as the worlds reserve currency. Essentially, the collaborative central bank Special Drawing Right (SDR) version 5.0. BTC owned by institutions, and everyone else owning either stable-coin, or native coin (Ether, etc.), dependent upon the owners application. Today's MSTR's becoming tomorrows public BTC depository trusts. Should it come to pass ... BTC has a very high price, impossible to predict. SD

Sadly It would seem the US government shutdown ended today, so it will also be some time yet before BTC again tests the 100K level. Useful to think of the stable coin digital gold as a Collateralized Debt Obligation, version 2.0. Everything kosher until someone wants the BTC instead of the debt; and the higher the leverage, the more incentive the CB has to buy/sell paper BTC to force the BTC price in the right direction. What could possibly go wrong SD

Just to put some numbers around this ...... https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/canadas-new-immigration-plan-who-wins-and-who-is-losing-out/article_04cb3407-3e7e-44be-8ee3-7c8671520476.html "On the temporary side, the number of foreign workers arriving will be slashed from 367,750 to 230,000 in 2026, and 220,000 in 2027 and 2028. New international student arrivals will also be cut significantly from 305,900 this year to 150,000 a year for the next three years." That's a lot of temporary demand coming off the existing housing stock. SD

Current pricing is an anomaly, resulting from stressed liquidity. Given that most government spending (G) is on people, who spend the cash received on paying bills .... when there's NO cash coming in, investments/savings get sold down. Government or people, rents/leases/mortgages/loan payments still have to be paid as they become due. Like it or not, sub 100K/BTC is a target ... a magnet dragging price lower, and a floor dragging price up. BTC at 150K+ modelled rising demand against a progressively limited and fixed supply. The sea of various stable coin has spread the demand over a much bigger supply ... so 150K is not going to happen until there is another game changer; halving, CB backed digital dollar, etc. Periodic dumps (Mt Gox distribution), and less strategic buying (MSTR), biasing prices down until something happens. Canada has just released the implementation rules around stable coin; one has to assume that most other CB's will take a similar approach. The big use will be a CB putting up a leveraged BTC holding against long-term debt via a stable coin; either to restructure/refinance existing debt (USD) to reduce interest costs, or for debt financed new generational infrastructure investment (Canada, Germany) that both protects investors against potential inflation, and lowers coupon interest. The smaller use will be widespread tokenisation of assets and liabilities. When the BTC standard becomes the digital gold standard we will be at the 150K+. Unlikely in the short term. Different story in the medium term, as time is running out on Trump. SD

40,000 federal government departures over the next 5 years isn't more government; it's actually more cuts to the government than the last guy who did this... the conservatives Stephen Harper. Sure, there is still the need to deliver; but you can only deliver on what you control. While Trump stuff remains a work in process, there has actually been improvement in a lot of the other domestic issues. The man has also only been there for maybe 7 months. SD

Doubtful there will be another election for quite some time, as neither of the NDP, Block, or Greens have the money to try again so soon. It would seem that the Conservatives will also have a new leader in the near future, which will push a potential election back a bit. In the meantime, we have a current budget very much in the vein of the Mr Harper Conservative budgets, and an actual industrial policy. SD

The Mount Gox bankruptcy distribution gets deferred a year from Oct 31, 2025 to Oct 31, 2026, the US Fed quietly injects 125 billion into the financial system at about the same time (as cash is not going out via wages during the stoppage?)..... yet BTC still tips < USD 100K? https://www.boccadutri.com/mtgox-refund-for-crypto-investors/ https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/125-billion-in-5-days-fed-quietly-injects-125-billion-into-u-s-banks-whats-going-on/articleshow/125092745.cms Have to think that some of those much talked about state treasury BTC investments are being forceably sold down to raise the cash needed to pay for emergency services. Also have to think that within the banking system, so many T-Bills are currently being sold/not-rolled to raise cash to pay bills; that without the fed bill purchases (cash injection) .... interest rates would be a lot higher. Longer the shutdown goes ... the sooner BTC again trades < 100K SD

Grey swan around EIA reporting .... The US shut down has resulted in quite a few government workers not getting paid. Engagement is minimal, data isn't getting collected/submitted on time; many are simply waiting for their terminations and unemployment claims before they retire. Weekly reporting (EIA reports) still goes out the door .... but without the usual rigour. US propane inventory showed a very large build this week .... just when it's cold/wet in the heartland, and the propane fuelled dryers are going flat out to dry harvested grain before it goes to storage ..... and there are actually heavy draws on propane stocks. It would appear that two data streams go into this report; injections from producers/imports etc. .. and deliveries via the various distribution channels. Supposedly, one of those streams was corrupted. Where there is one cockroach .... there are usually others Opportunity! SD

Back in the day one of the central african countries had a problem with elephant poaching. Another countries poaching syndicates were driving elephant herds into mine fields, and using military helicopters to support the hacking out of the tusks and transportation elsewhere. One of the authorised solutions was the use of bounty, both inside and outside of the country. $X for a pair of easily transportable ears (discourage local tribesmen), and a free pass to help yourself to the syndicates. Whatever you could liberate was yours, however you chose to, and wherever it went, no questions asked ... while under a form of diplomatic immunity With so many mercenaries around, very good at what they did ... an opportunity few could resist! A lot of rich people suddenly became poor, and business was good for a time I understand that the larger dhows can also accommodate at-sea helicopter transfers, and make quite a distance at certain times of the year. Some rich people even got relocated to the wrong country; karma is such a bitch! There's the getting rich, and staying rich. Shit where you sleep ...... SD