SharperDingaan

A discount broker is only required to send you an election notice, and the SEDAR location of the rights prospectus, asap after record date. The election notice will require you to indicate 1) if you're going to subscribe & for how many shares 2) if you're going to oversubscribe & for how many shares. Choose to do nothing & the broker will automatically subscribe your rights holding as of close of trading on expiry date, & charge your account. It is your responsibility to make yourself aware of the prospectus terms, & buy/sell/oversubscribe as you wish. If you don't want to fully subscribe, it is your responsibility to sell your excess rights before expiry date. No if's/but's/maybe's. SD

Couple of points: Why do you think you have to maintain your position? you do not. Why do you think you have to stay in common? the rights are a 3 week option on the common. Why do you think FBK has to stay as they are? you don't make enough, your assets get sold. Why are you convinced that Q2 will be worse than Q1? because thats what Mr Market is saying. Yes the price is not 1.85, & it's highly unlikely it'll go over 2.00 on the Q2 release. There are 30%+ more shares out there; get over it! Yes you have to make a hold/sell decision on the rights within 3 weeks; get over it! SD

Some interesting things that weren't in Obama's speech. - At 60K bbl/day this is dumping an Exxon Valdez (250K bbl total) into the Gulf every 4 days; BP's roughly 40% recovery rate just means that it now takes 7 days versus 4. It's show, not substance. - $20B is only the first installment. The administration will decide who gets paid, how much, the timing of payments, etc; & they mean to use it as a stimulus package. Its implied that the 2nd, & future installments, will be funded through the seizure of US assets. - The administration expects hurricanes to bring up the sub-surface slick & materially add to the cost of insureds damage claims. The cash up front is in part to ensure that we don't get systemic illiquidity (paid claims waiting years for re-imbursement from BP) triggering widespread insurance failures. - The administration is effectively taking over the recovery. If a relief well isn't possible untill late August, the well will gush another 11 Valdez at the current rate. There is no certainty that the relief well will work, & there is evidence that engineers have run out of better ideas. You have to think that the nuke option is rising on the list, & that no president is going to want to have to authorize a US supplied nuke being deliberately set off on US soil. Game changer. Its hard to see how BP can possibly survive this. All they can really do is ring fence their assets against sovereign seizure as best they can, & run to the UK government for a 'too big to fail' bailout. SD

- What if I sell some of my rights, and subscribe in full to the rest? Am I still eligible? (I think the answer is NO?). You will receive 1 right for every share you beneficially owned on record day; sell your shares before record day & you get no rights. If you want additional rights via the oversubscription, you cannot sell any of your rights. If you want additional rights via market purchases, you can buy however many you want. - What if I buy some rights from others? Am I eligible to buy into the extra? (I think the answer is NO?) Rights bought in the market, do not come with oversubscription priviledges; you did own the underlying shares that generated those rights over the record date. - What constitutes beneficial ownership? If you subscribe in full to some in a registered account, but not to others that are in a cash account, and/or there are others that are in a spouse's account ... or are shares in different accounts treated wholly independently? (I think each will be treated separately?) If your shares are lodged with a broker, they are registered in your brokers name, but you have beneficial ownership as you own the economic rights attached to the shares. Your spouse becomes the beneficial owner if you transfer shares to your spousal account. - Then, if you do want to buy more ... how many more can you buy? (I think it's the lesser of as many as you ask for, or your pro-rata amount of those available, based on your pro-rata subscription to the basic shares that were subscribed.) SD

30% chance of 300K is 90K, for which you're paying 15K. Alternatively to recover the 15K the chance of the 300K occurrence must > 5%. The numbers say do it, the fact that you've asked - say no. When you're more concerned about the loss its usually a sign that you aren't yet ready. SD

Notable is that BP is now talking about suspending their dividend. Loss estimates have already topped 5B, and BP is now talking about (temporarily) suspending 3 dividends & essentially paying for the spill out of cash-flow. But how reliable can the BP estimate really be? - if they don’t know how much is gushing, when it will stop, what the recovery effort will look like, & there is conclusive evidence of BP continually trying to ‘spin’ numbers? Most would suggest the proposed dividend suspension is really an attempt to cap liability, & forestall further action. Putting assets into a trust means the administration chooses the assets, the assets are free of any debt obligations, & they will be borrowed against/sold to pay for cleanup. The administration would turn to US advisors (Exxon?) for advice on the asset selection; but if 40% of your (best) assets were suddenly put into trust, & your debt remained the same, wouldn’t you just be left with riskier assets & a debt/equity ratio & carry-costs that suddenly sky-rocket (reflecting the additional risk)? Most would suggest that BPs ‘strong BS argument’ is simply more ‘spin’ – they would actually NEED the div cut. It’s highly unlikely that recent media coverage on what happens after the ‘clean-up ’ (Exxon Valdez) is accidental. It would seem that the administration has seen BP’s litigation ‘push-back’ & shareholder ‘hostage’ (1/3 are US) threats as red flags, the CEO as ‘tone deaf/politically incompetent’, & that next week’s meeting will be tell – not discuss. You have to wonder how long until the entire recovery is put into government hands, & sufficient assets seized to ensure that the bill will actually be paid. The reality is that deep water drilling IS a bet-the-company proposition. You buy insurance to cover against a blow-out, you invest in the highest safety possible to minimize the premiums, & you farm out the opportunity among many parties – so that an accidental blow out will not kill you. If the drill was successful you buy out your partners interests. BP choose to ‘self-insure’ & lost; why should it not cost them the company – as they are NOT ‘special’. Next week should be interesting. SD

Keep in mind that most of 'standard of living', is not actually measurable. Today pretty much everyone has access to a porcelain toilet; 300 years ago even kings/queens had to use a 'long drop'. How do you measure that progress? All through the 1950-70's you moved out of the house & 'grew up'; pretty much as soon as possible. You could drive a car at 16 (for the most part), get killed at 18 (joined the army), & were mature & an adult at 21. You can still do those things, but now we have the returning 'adult kid' in their mid 20's. How do you measure that! SD

Keep in mind that many folks were expecting around $2.20/share ($1.84 in todays structure) just after Q1-2010 results were released. As we're quite a bit better this time around, a simple sanity check would suggest that we'll probably see it again. If it does go to $1.84, the common increases by 46% (((1.84-1.26)/1.26-1)*100); but the warrant increases by 227% (((.36-11)/.11-1)*100). And everytime the warrant goes up 1c, the common goes up 2.28c Pretty sure there's going to be market optimism ;) SD

Congratulations!, especially if you're holding next years season tickets :D SD

The key words are "hedging each tier as he goes". If BP goes to zero he'll have a realized loss on his long position, offset with a realized gain on his hedge; net loss of zero. The capital is not at risk, & he'll earn a very high yield if the div holds up. He can also hold for a very long time if he doesn't have a ALM mismatch. SD

Just some rough numbers: Apr-26 (pre Q1-2010 earnings announcement) we had 90.473M shares trading @1.85 for 167.37M of MV. We're now issuing another 39.6M shares to total 130.077M. 167.37MV/130.077 shares = $1.28/fully diluted share = effectively todays closing price of 1.26. As each right is worth 10.9c (1.28-1.01)/2.2845, the current MV of our holding is $1.37/share. The rights convert on July-15. Q2 results are typically released late July/early August; so conversion will be without seeing the benefit of Q2 results. The rights have a 3 week life, so they'll list on the TSX sometime during the week ended Jun-25. Q2 has 3 weeks to go. Assuming no major changes Q2 should be materially better than Q1 (pricing, FX, etc.). Given that we have substantial improvements (refinancing, int cost, conversion, etc), most would expect the shares to go well above the 1.85 they were at pre-dilution; which is where we're trading at today. SD

Tilson is actually doing the right thing, so long as he's rolling into a position & hedging each tier as he goes. (1) 20% now to lock in the existing drop (2) 30% on a div cut/asset seizure (3) 40% on media coverage of the spill following a hurricane (4) 25% (10% balance+15% hedge gain) to ongoing foulups. The worst case assumption is a sale to Shell (assumed) subject to a liability cap provided by the UK government (effectively a TARP type emergency measure to protect UK pensions). If BP actually survives, the investment will end up looking like WEBs Coke & will be talked about for years. SD

Scan some of the european/asian industry magazines. Who are the major investment funds/drillers in the various global fields, who/where does their stock trade, & what are the dominant economics in those locations. If an offshore drilling $ were diverted from the US; where would it likely go ? & how would it show up there ? The underlying premise is that asian operators (CNOC, etc) operating in less regulated areas will be the major beneficiary, & that european/middle eastern players are in a better position to move $ than US players. The investment is probably via a fund (ETF, ADR, etc) not trading on the US exchanges, BP is a dominantly weighting, & there's sovereign backing. You might find Shanghai, Singapore, Dubai/Abu-Dhabi etc. particularly interesting ;) SD

The good news is that it's in only 500ft of water (more available options). The bad news is that if it is leaking, & they can't stop it quickly, the current moratorium may well extend to shallow water drilling as well. The wildcard is that the damage goes back to 2004; has it been leaking since then & authorities have allowed it to continue? or is the alleged leak something new that's just started? Should evidence surface that leak correction is being systematically deferred/ignored, an offshore shut-down is virtually guaranteed. SD

You might want to rethink: Agreed, by the metrics, the industry's last 5 years have been great; but we also know those metrics have been favourably inflated because of systematic reserve releases. The industry has structurally improved, but nowhere near as much as the metrics imply. Blindly adding weight simply for 'recency', could well be exactly the wrong thing to do. Every investor should be in insurance right now because, by the metrics, its currently 'cheap'. Many would suggest its actually not yet cheap enough, & that post hurricane season is actually the time to invest. There will be less capacity, higher prices, & the industry's structural improvements will still be in place - but the losses will have lowered the entry point & left the upside undiminished. 'Poetry' producing a return well above the blind following of metrics. First you hit the qualitative, then you hit the metrics. If the industry is sh1t, holding the best player within it is to still hold sh1t. SD

There is nothing wrong with ‘skimming’ a universe to ascertain its present state, but an investor cannot substitute it for ‘research’. Jumping straight to metrics, then basing decisions on nothing but metrics, simply proves that the investor knows the methodology - but is clueless as to application. Books & reading teach methodology; experience, an open mind, & open discussion teach application – provided the investor has the common sense/investment maturity to recognize it. The discussion is greatly facilitated when referenced to published facts (10Q’s, AR’s, etc). Most folks are quite willing to share insights, related experience, technical expertise, etc – but don’t expect them to do the work for you. It is one thing to suggest an approach, methodology, etc - but if you’re looking for an adviser you’re in the wrong place. Examples: The real value of NPV is realizing that the precise number is un-important, the true lesson is the timing & magnitude of the cash-flows; but to truly realize that, you have to thrash it out. Similarly - the actual P/E paid is un-important; the real variables are the growth rate & the length of your expected holding period. SD

MFC is fundamentally a wealth management company in an insurance wrapper, & not a valid peer. They are very good at what they do, they offset their riskier profile with higher quality risk management, & their practices are regulated by OSFI. This isn't an overleveraged/overexposed US or European insurer doing stupid things. SD

You might want to keep in mind that this is also often the retail investors biggest 'con'. SD

BP has a cultural 'hubris' problem, that pretty much runs from the top down; were they in Capital Markets we'd be calling them GS. Interestingly they're both facing criminal probes, & have not been able to see their actions for what they really are. The world needs oil/gasoline, but it doesn't have to come from BP. BP gasoline sold through an Exxon station works just as well, but the refining profit goes to Exxon & not BP. Similarly a oil/gas lease doesn't have to be owned by BP. US leases can be retroactively re-assigned, & European/Mid-East leases can be acquired via takeover (Shell). SD

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100006015/23-billion-shock-for-safe-and-steady-savers/ http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/rowenamason/100006019/bp-oil-spill-tony-hayward-faces-the-city/ Keep in mind that UK pension funds are holding 23B pounds of BP, & that the BP dividend is roughy 1 pound in seven of the industry total dividend income. Cut the div, or risk the US leases? SD

Assess if pharma is within our competency. If 'no', we'd reduce our sector risk by staying domestic. Do we have all the major 'names'? Are there hybrid securities - convertibles, warrants, options, etc. What fits within our risk tolerance & time horizon, & why. Is an alternate low fee index fund available. We would benchmark against a 5% weighting to the index fund. If we invested directly via a hybrid we'd want a minimum 3-5x the index return. If we could do it via a convertible we'd use margin to neutralize our positive carry, & weight higher. When it's not within your competency, the individual 'name' is pretty irrelevant. SD

Keep in mind that when a 'widows & orphans' stock materially cuts its dividend; the share price usually drops 35-40% - & it stays down untill the CEO is fired &/or some institution (collecting assets from those widows & orphans) commits to a sizeable equity issue. US presidents have often commented that one of their greatest challenges has been the management of American 'bloodlust' following an attack; & if you're one of the millions living on the US Gulf Coast, this slick is an attack. Given BPs safety record, & 'foreign' status; it is very difficult to see why a US president would not force BP to sell their US assets to other US sisters (Exxon, etc) - to appease both the public & the US oil industry. Most would expect a fall of at least another 50% over the next 4-6 months; & more still if there's a feeding frenzy &/or further UK/Euroland economic disruption. SD

You might want to look at the trading volume over the last few days. - If I wanted to buy (in quantity) who would I get the shares from?, & how? - If I really didn't think it a worthwhile investment, why is no one selling? Patience is a virtue SD

We try to use common sense - & not a specific $X, or %BV, price. 1) What is our sense as to the likely market/coy specific trend for the next 6 months of P(x) for +ve vs -ve outcomes. When it becomes net positive, & begins to trend up again - its time to consider repurchasing. 2) We treat it as insurance (& expect a net cost) against adverse events. There is minimal 'opportunity cost' if your default is a repurchase within 2 weeks of the price passing your 'sold' point. 3) On 'average' you have a 1/3 chance of being right (goes up, down, stays the same). Literature evidences that a short position (loss avoidance here) is more profitable than a long one. You enter the transaction because you think the 'down' % is > 1/3. To do it well you need to be able to correctly assess the probable impact of dominant macro trends over the next 6 months. Net direction & a 'sense' as to the potential strength, outweighing specific 'accuracy'. Notable is that if you're good at 'hedging', you typically suck at trading (different skill sets). SD

To use a world cup analogy; How is this any different from the crowd booing the referee for making bad calls in the lead up to the premier game? The refs are effectively controlled/work for a 'union' - the 'union' here is the US gov. The refs are exposed to bribery & game fixing - same thing for a credit rater, its just done differently The crowd has to assume impartial refs - same thing for the market using the ratings When the corruption/intimidation gets out of hand the refs refuse to ref, there's no game, the bookmakers & fans go ballistic, & refs (& their families) receive visits from 'legbreakers' wielding baseball bats. The equivalent is a ratings moratorium (not a problem if no one is actually using them), & threatening lobbyists all over the raters/gov. Hasn't happened yet because lobbyists are more effective than baseball bats? SD