ACooke

I like the business a lot. They do operate worldwide however something like 75% of revenue is from NA off of the top of my head. They are focusing on growth particularly in Australia and Europe and are semi-winding down their China segment - essentially just servicing existing customers for the most part - from what I understand. I think probably my largest concern outside of the cyclicality (mainly tied to non-resi US construction), is whether their volumes are contracting and if so - why. The reason I question whether they are is because they've added additional groups of machinery over the years and I think it's likely that certain of them are things that would have previously landed under the boomed and ride-on screed categories. So if the historical screed categories are trending down (I'm not sure they are, it's difficult to tell with the noise of the last few years) then that may purely be due to the historical screed categories being mixed in to 2 or 3 additional/new equipment categories rather than 1. They do name the machinery so that should be very easy to nut-out. Where volumes will normalize is a little more difficult for me to grasp. They do have some newish (I believe?) competition within the NA market too. Anyway, intriguing business for sure.

Fantastic. Thanks KJP. I am familiar with Macfarlane and Lewis Robinson but not so with Sabre or Perlican so I'll jump straight in to them.

Does anyone want to share any particular names they're interested in here? I think there's a bunch that are interesting but tied to construction and/or renovation. I think Somero, Andrew Sykes, Headlam, Howden Joinery are all interesting but influenced in varying degrees by the above.

I finished Railroader a couple of week ago; very worthy read.

Yeah I was mostly being facetious but I agree, it's largely a game of confirmation bias and I too find it difficult to buy in to things that I can neither experience for myself nor explain objectively and by what I perceive to be rational means.

I heard some one say, a while back, this which made me laugh; 'Camera technology has made leaps and bounds this last few decades but every UFO sighting (and big foot) seems still to be taken with a potato'. From someone that certainly follow this stuff - it doesn't seem you ever see one that isn't either vying for the world lowest res. photo, or seemingly taken during a catastrophic earthquake.

I've been watching 'Tokyo Vice' as per some recommendations in this thread - great show.

Yeah I tried this one last night too - boring - made it through 1 episode and doubt I'll revisit it. I'm sure some of that's because I already know the story quite well but also - have you really got 4 and a half hours of material there?

There's a bio by Forestier and Ravai called 'The Taste of Luxury - Bernard Arnault and the M-H, LV Story'. I've had it on my list for a few years now but have found it difficult to find and/or expensive whenever I've gone to take the plunge so am yet to read it.

There's a great podcast series covering this called 'Exit Scam'.

Out of curiosity, is there anything in particular that makes you believe Fevertree could be one of the next great global brands? It seems like drinks co's (and similar) are a dime a dozen. They commonly seem to make an initial, big splash then sink - it seems very faddish. However, the ones that grab hold are typically big winners. At initial glance, the valuation looks intriguing although their margin trend concerns me a little. Expansion maybe? Heaps of cash, little/no debt. Doesn't look like they need to spend a real lot on capex. Minimal dilution, stock comp looks reasonable. The build up of cash and dividends makes me think they may be struggling for re-investment opportunities, which is fine. I'd rather them fling the cash back to shareholders than blow it on garbage acquisitions or similar.

I'm half way through this and am enjoying it too. Apple seems to be doing reasonably well with their production - without thinking too deeply in to it - there's been a few series they've released this past year or so, I've really enjoyed. The movie 'CODA' was really good too I thought. I believe they're currently producing Shantaram - a series based on the book. Being that this may well be my favorite book of all time and lingers in my head based on the fond memories of reading it almost 2 decades ago, I'm perhaps more concerned than interested as to what effect it may have on my memories of a book thoroughly enjoyed at a vastly different point in my life. We'll see, I guess.

The meme-tists' censorship framework intrigues me.

Doesn't this defeat the purpose and make a train more viable (assuming a depot is nearby)? If you're having to meet a truck somewhere for a driver to take over wouldn't it be cheaper to just throw it on a big, long, more efficient truck (a train) and unload/reload at the depot? Sure the unload/reload certainly adds drag but without actually crunching numbers - it it seems like you're better off once you factor in much higher maintenance costs for a truck, insurance etc. - plus, do you now have to set up a bunch of facilities periodically along a highway as meeting/pick up points - I'm sure you can't just start lining trucks up on highway breakdown lanes? Also, unless we sort out how to fuel these things with something more "green" than the utopian mirage that is the current EV battery, it seems counter intuitive to the whole climate change song and dance. I agree in that self driving trucks etc. are an inevitability but I don't think we're even close. I think it's 15+ years off, although I have zero basis for that opinion. The old quote about things happening extremely slowly and then all at once seems to spring to mind here.

I aim for 8-10 positions which typically ends up being about 12 by the time I factor in odds and ends - things I'm moving out of/in to or have had trouble building a position to the size I'd hoped for. I think that size/concentration just seems to work best for me psychologically. Being that concentrated doesn't concern me - portfolio swings don't particularly worry me and I find it difficult to tend to many more positions than that. I've found in the past if I have say 20+ positions of equal weight, I lose interest/find it difficult to follow such a number. I'm not able to tend to my portfolio full time and positions 5% and under *feel* (perhaps irrationally) too small to be meaningful to me. I can't say I've come to the above in an overly objective way - it's just where I tend to end up/feel best. A shortfall is definitely that there's certainly times where I hold a larger cash balance than I think might be ideal, purely due to the fact I find it difficult to find ideas at times which i guess brings the questions of whether I'd be better having some less heavily weighted positions which I'm reasonably confident will add to performance and if they do detract, aren't too meaningful. In saying that, as above, I tend to just end up neglecting them and not following them closely.

Yeah this seems like the most likely outcome to me also; although, my conviction is not tightly-held.

Just jumped in to post this, too. Well worth a read.

I think it got pretty poor reviews but I loved it. Great movie (although I'd guess I enjoy the subject matter more than the average viewer). There's a book called Gold Rush by Jim Richards - it's a bio about a geologist hoping to fund and float his own mining business. He starts out prospecting for gold in Guyana, heads down to Brazil and a bunch of other places - oil in the middle east, Diamonds in Australia and at one stage gets caught up in the Bre-X fraud. Really interesting book if you enjoy that sort of topic. Easy read, too. It's probably more 'adventure' than it is geology heavy.

I agree - they may do so. They've scaled back capex within the seg as far as I'm aware - I guess whether they make a further push or continue winding it down somewhat will depend on the PMTA outcome. Even if they're successful there, I'm not certain a whole lot comes of their in-house brands. I wonder what they could part the seg out for - surely the E-commerce side of it is worth *something*. As for the CEO - there's not many positives I could find spoken about him from his last role although that was mainly from forums and blogs. I can't recall the magazine exactly but it was a motorsport magazine which in his defence - i think any time you move in to a niche, cultish (too strong of a word here but meh) type hobby and start making business-savvy changes - you're asking for push back from fans. Bobby Kotick is probably a good example on a much grander scale. He's certainly an unknown quantity at the very least.

PCYO too - almost a full position for me now - I've been buying from ~$11 down, added a chunk more today - might take another swing if we see something in the mid $8's. Also TPB - I think you can scratch the New Gen seg and you're getting some solid brands in ZZ and Stokers at a sub 10 earnings multiple. I think their sales should be reasonably sticky in a recessionary environment, they should have some pricing power. I think it's likely they can grow top and bottom line at something around mid - high single digits, especially if there's some cross synergies with the Clipper acquisition. Potentially some tailwinds from further weed legalization. There's potential vaping takes share of the joint market which wouldn't be ideal, and more stringent cigarette laws hinder paper sales but they'll hopefully have some horses in that race if that's the case. I think there's plenty of 'free options' in their New Gen seg and some of their minority holdings. The new CEO concerns me a little - mildly concerned that he may be a bit of a Malone wannabe without the capacity to pull it off. Debt levels also something that needs to be monitored.

I've never really spent any time learning about call spreads and so forth. The goal here is just to juice your return, rather than lock in a spread or similar - as you might see done with long/short hedging and so forth. So if the deal closes you're return is the spreads ($15 - $5 = $10). Plus and minus the premiums ($3.30 -$8.70 = $5.40) = $4.60. So 186% is returned (86% ROI). This is better than buying the $8.70 call in isolation and the deal closing, returning 172% (72% ROI). Similarly the $3.35 $90 call nets less again at ~50%. Now I've typed the out a feel a little dense and the above seems clear. If I'm missing something I'll go ahead and spend some time on it myself rather than asking to be spoon fed.

I can only wish - at least for now. I’m a couple of thousand kilometers (miles ) away from you lot. I can assure you, i’m extremely envious though.

Sold. I'll throw that on my list. Thanks!

I've been watching 'Gold Rush' lately, namely the 'white water' seasons - mainly because it's fairly brainless and intriguing as to how they rig and build things to tackle certain scenarios they fall upon whilst being in the middle of nowhere and for some reason I'm always fascinated by prospecting and mining in general. I'd love to know their actual spend each year - I feel like I'm continually doing the math in my head (and it's very simple math) of how much their pulling in vs what they're likely spending, before the crew takes home a cent. It's truly brutal. I'm sure they're probably floated (excuse the pun) or supplemented to some extent by the film producers, and no doubt a chunk of it's mashed together in odd orders and over dramatized; but if what they show and suggest is in any way indicative of the true economics of an operation like that ------ mannnnn it boggles thy mind. Fun - if slightly repetitive - watch though.

I don't use an awful lot either. I use a PDF editor - Microsoft Edge atm - in which I highlight and take short notes on 10k's and such. As I work through an idea I'll take longer notes and grab quotes etc. from call transcripts and other docs which I do in Microsoft Word and I'll eventually paste them in to the main document - the pdf - I've been taking notes on - usually the most recent 10k/AR. I'll also typically pen and paper up a bunch of stuff in a note book as I go - usually I'll compile important financial data here - work through a valuation model - draw cap structures if they're complex or a breakdown of subsidiaries and such and note some of the more objective and concrete things I'm using to build my valuation or want to keep tabs on. So I pretty much end up with the most recent 10k which I've blanked a few pages on and copy pasted some notes from a bunch of sources over the top - this typically runs 2 - 4 pages and my literal paper notebook which will have a 1 or 2 pager which shows how I've worked through a valuation, inclusive of any scribbling, adjusting I do (I find it easier to note and easier to retain if I do it there) plus anything I want to draw/diagram. I'll throw some brief notes on the pdf doc too outlining what I came up with valuation wise so it's easy and quick to address. The thing I'd like most (although not enough to pay for it - clearly ha ha) is a site that does 10yr (or longer) financials for a bunch of markets. QuickFS is great for US, Can, Uk but outside of that I find it tricky to find anything that's consistent. TIKR was good - I should probably just suck it up and pay.