Jump to content

wescobrk

Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by wescobrk

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    More bac

    I think ubs analyst is obtuse. He cut price from 20 to 16 because of capital levels.

    I didn't think it was worth 20 but certainly 18.

    Bac will probably pass on div increase but I bet they get at least 3 billion share buyback.

    Thanks ubs "analyst" for giving me the 15.70 print.

    Which is the better stock to purchase today: JPM or BAC?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Dimon said on the Q&A a couple of days ago he thinks JPM within 2 years will see better environment with regulators and they have have a premium PE in 4 years.

    He sounds exhausted with Justice Department.

    Do the government a favor and then take a pound of flesh for 6 years.

    Hopefully he is right and in 2017 the taking of flesh will be largely done.

     

    Banks will definitely have vastly higher P/E ratios in 2-4 years but we have to keep in mind the ROE the regulators will allow them to earn. If one forecasts an ROE higher than the low to mid teens, I think will be overly optimistic.

    Mohnish Pabrai conference call

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    While I really respect and feel that I've learned a lot from Pabrai I feel that he is very inconsistent. The biggest example for me was his chapter on the Kelly Formula and concentrated portfolios.

     

    He's very successful and good at what he does, but I agree, a lot of times he contradicts what he says.

    He's very confusing to me at times. His latest interview about not giving stock picks but then he does nothing but gives stock picks.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Apple is amazing what it has accomplished but at some point it'll have several years of sideways movement.

    i'm certainly not smart enough to know when, but I wouldn't bet on a lot of growth if I was forced to wager, from this price anyway.

     

    I was thinking the same thing after Mohnish made the comments about Google recently.

    The growth from here isn't clear, at least to me.

     

    Those companies aren't my game though so take my opinion for what it's worth, which is about nothing for those companies as I didn't buy them  years ago when an intelligent investor should have.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I bought Tesla (below $200) for the first time.

    Who knows what happens over the next 5 months, but over the next 5 years (Elon will step down probably after model 3 as CEO but he said he will be part of the company forever) this looks very lucrative, in my judgement.

    I'm sure "value" investors will think I'm insane but I agree with Buffett about investors showing their ignorance about using that terminology as a "value" investor or "growth" investor.

    I really liked it when Cramer said it wasn't a 'real' company.

    Thanks Cramer for possibly giving me a better price.

     

    What an idiotic statement (not a real company).

     

    If it drops even more then I'll buy more.

     

    Been thinking about doing the same. But wait...

     

    http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-more-evidence-that-apple-could-be-working-on-a-car-2015-2

     

    If it drops, I hope it happens in late March after my BAC might hit $18 :)

    I'll sell some bac and buy something else.

    i wanted to buy somepriceline this week but damn expedia boosted the bid offer, telsa's bid dropped today, thus I went with the latter, at least for now.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I can understand Cramer saying that in 2010 but in 2015. Give me a break.

    Unfortunately, Munger told Musk the same thing (I don't recall Musk mentioning the year) but Musk was pretty saddened to hear Munger tell him at lunch the number of ways Tesla would fail.

    Now, of course, Munger is a fan. I love Munger but even he got Tesla wrong (and maybe BYD).

    I, personally, think they should sell BYD and buy Tesla, but that certainly won't happen.

     

    Full disclosure, I haven't followed BYD, it may well prove to be successful, but I'm not impressed based on the little knowledge I have of it.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I bought Tesla (below $200) for the first time.

    Who knows what happens over the next 5 months, but over the next 5 years (Elon will step down probably after model 3 as CEO but he said he will be part of the company forever) this looks very lucrative, in my judgement.

    I'm sure "value" investors will think I'm insane but I agree with Buffett about investors showing their ignorance about using that terminology as a "value" investor or "growth" investor.

    I really liked it when Cramer said it wasn't a 'real' company.

    Thanks Cramer for possibly giving me a better price.

     

    What an idiotic statement (not a real company).

     

    If it drops even more then I'll buy more.

     

    Janitor Leaves $8 Million

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    "If you have the means of enjoying material values, why should you not do so just as you do with spiritual values like friendship, productive endeavor, art, etc.? I don't see why there's any difference. You would not say that it's wrong to have a great friend because it will make all of your other friends less enjoyable. By this logic I should starve myself each week so I can appreciate brussels sprouts by Friday.

     

    I agree with you that if you're unhappy, spending more money is probably not going to make you happier, but then concluding that the converse is true is wrong too. It's a false dichotomy to claim that either spending more money makes you happier or spending less makes you happier, even if 'everyone' agrees on it. Money isn't the fundamental driver of happiness."

     

    Good stuff, agaglio, thanks for the post.

    Janitor Leaves $8 Million

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks everyone for posting.

    I certainly wasn't ascribing a moral argument for the way he lived, if anything I was giving him enormous credit with my comments on sacrifice.

    I was merely generating discussion for the board as maybe people can argue if one is living too conservatively or ascetically.

    I certainly am not arguing he shouldn't live the life he wants to life. I believe, deepest in my soul, with Franklin's and Jefferson's (Franklin modified inalienable to unalienable) to life, liberty and happiness.

    I'm aware of the happiness studies but thanks for posting.

     

    I'm aware of the 'hedonic treadmill' and I'm under no illusions that leads to a happier life.

     

    I just wanted to generate some discussion, more of a moderator, but please don't think I was criticizing this man.

    I was not in the slightest. He was very unselfish.

    Janitor Leaves $8 Million

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I love and dislike this article. I would have liked  the journalist to give at least some hint on how much he contributed and how much were gains, but having said that, I thought it was a pretty amazing story.

    They didn't list anything about him inheriting any money so the reader can only assume it was on his own.

     

    I guess something to generate discussion for the board is if he wasted any part of his life? Maybe he didn't receive any joy besides saving and investing. The story didn't comment about the quality of his relationship with his wife and children.

    Is it a good life to only splurge on breakfast when you have millions in the bank?

    Obviously society is benefiting from his sacrifice, but I wonder if he sacrificed too much?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102404530

    Ron Baron thinks Tesla is worth $250 billion in 2025?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Did anyone watch the interview with Ron Baron on cnbc?

    I wasn't able to watch.

    I hope the interviewer didn't just try and look nice for the camera and challenged him on what the number of cars, gross margin, etc he is assuming.

    Just thinking out loud, Musk's goal is 500k cars in 2020, if we assume another double by 2025 that is 1 million cars. Musk has said operating margin will be around 15%, I believe.

    If we assume the average car is about $50k (Musk said $35k for the model 3) so that is $50k x 1 million is $50 billion I believe (no calculator just typing quickly) and 15% operating margin is $7.5 billion. Subtract 35% for taxes and let's call it a round $5 billion. These are some huge assumptions as there is already skepticism about the 500k number by 2020, that assumes 50x earnings with a company with 15% operating margins.

    This doesn't take into account dilution, which I'm assuming will be quite a bit to keep employees.

     

    If we assign a 15 multiple then get to to a triple which sounds more realistic.

     

    I think Musk is amazing but does anyone else think Ron Baron is crazy?

     

     

    Anyone taking CFA exams this weekend?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I'm taking Level 2 in June. I haven't taken an exam since 2012 so hopefully I can brush off the rust.

    I definitely don't want to take Level 2 again. I need to pass in June.

     

    Any insights by people that passed Level 2 besides end of chapter cfai questions?

    One person told me ace ethics, equity and accounting and you should pass.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Just do the opposite what I do and everyone will make a fortune.

    I bought wells for the first time a week ago thinking I'm going with the safest bank and then watch a 10 percent decline. I know as value investors it's great to buy more but it was already a full position for me.

     

    Buy Wells Fargo?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Perhaps I'm a bit daft but given the IMF upgraded the US but downgraded Europe a couple of days ago and since Wells international exposure (to my knowledge) is virtually nil, is there a rationale why it should be down a few percentage points recently?

    I bought a lot today but I don't understand the sell off. How can wells be hurt with germany slowing?

    Buffett Beyond Value - Prem C. Jain

    in Books

    Posted

    [amazonsearch]Buffett Beyond Value: Why Warren Buffett Looks to Growth and Management When Investing[/amazonsearch]

     

    I am reading Buffett Beyond Value.

     

    Though surely nothing new to the people on this board, I think it is among the best books on WB’s investment ideas and practices.

     

    Overall, the book will allow you to discover that Buffett has achieved success by emphasizing the importance of high-quality managers more than any other metric.

     

    Cheers,

     

     

     

    Gio

     

    Thanks, Gio. I just ordered (used copy, naturally)from Amazon. I also ordered Berkshire Beyond Buffett. Foreword by Tom Murphy. It looks good as well!

    Amazon is like crack. :)

×
×
  • Create New...