wescobrk
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Posts posted by wescobrk
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Buffett raising all of this capital has nothing to do with insurance claims. The CEO of Lloyds of London thinks there will be about $100 billion of claims for the virus and maybe another $100 billion if you take into account insurance companies having to sell assets at low prices. If we take the high end of his prediction, in the past, Buffett has said Berkshire will have no further damage than 3% of the industry. Let's double that on the high end prediction of $200 billion which is 6% of $200 billion is $12 billion. Buffett further says he wants to have $20 billion at all times. $137 billion minus 32 billion equals $105 billion of dry powder AND he is continuing to sell stocks such as Goldman, JP, BK.
His comments about having to pay claims for people and others that have 99% of their net worth in Berkshire strikes me as complete bullshit. I love Buffett but as someone as said on this board watch his actions and not his comments. Buffett is speculating there will be a monster drop in equites . He wasn't buying at 35% drop. He thinks we will drop 50% plus. That is what I'm getting from his actions and ignoring his comments.
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He sold all of the airlines now he is selling Goldman and JP Morgan.
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I'm wondering what was the information that Buffett changed his view (almost a 180 degree change) from his late Feb interview on CNBC when he sounded like every other interview for the last decade to his very cautious view at the AGM.
He told Becky that he spoke to his science advisor Bill Gates that he is bullish on a vaccine over the long term. He talked about buying stocks in the quarter.
It was a radical change based on the same pandemic that he was aware of and had spoken to Gates over a roughly 6 week time frame.
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Bingo, he just said it, the discount isn't wide enough now at these prices as they were 3 and 6 months ago.
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So he's talking about buybacks. Kinda throwing up in my mouth. He was buying back ~20% higher and now putting the brakes on. Wonder if he'll get a question pressing more about that.
The only rational explanation is the uncertainty that he referenced due to the covid 19. But, at other times, he talks about the you can't stop America and Berkshire will come out stronger, so he seems a bit contradictory at times, but my guess is that now that he knows about Covid 19, his margin of safety now is wider for Berkshire and any other marketable security.
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Buffett has been talking for an hour straight so far. Very Lucid. He seems the same as usual. Still brilliant. :)
Loomis I'm hoping is wrong about it being a lot shorter this time. Buffett hasn't even gotten to the Q&A yet.
Should last, I'm guessing, about 3 hours.
Not bad to hear from Buffett for 3 hours.
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He bought more last quarter when he commented Berkshire wasn't that cheap (I believe a 95 cent dollar?)
This was worse than I thought regarding taking advantage of the drop.
Well, when there is a 2nd wave, hopefully he will be more aggressive.
I wonder if Ted and the other chap was aggressive.
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Senator Warren and Congresswoman AOC are trying to push legislation to ban all M&A until pandemic is over.
M&A is already down over 33%. The FTC is still reviewing each M&A case. The FTC commissioner commented that is black and white thinking and would actually be more difficult for some small companies.
With poison pills so easy to invoke, small companies aren't forced to be sold unless the shareholders vote on it. Also, if a company is struggling and may not make it without an acquisition, this would harm companies.
I don't even understand how Warren and AOC would benefit from this politically as this seems to be difficult to describe the specifics with voters.
Anyone on the board believe this is a good idea and can explain why it should be law until a vaccine?
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I still don't understand why Warren and Charlie and Ajit just dial in from home and have an audio meeting along with the other directors.
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If it takes 2 years (vaccine)as Bill Gates said "1-2 years" then it appears we may not have another annual meeting with him and Charlie until 2022, if ever, sadly, due to their age.
I hope they both live to 2022.
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it isn't a safety issue. Charlie and Agit can talk over the phone.
Very disappointing. I guess the Jason Zweig interview of Charlie from a couple of weeks ago is all we are going to get this year unless something changes.
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I don't get why they can't each video in from different locations
Agreed, not even having Charlie and Ajit on speaker phone? Wtf?
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Wow, no Ajit either.
Very strange.
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What is the quickest way to look up who owns debt in public companies? Also, the entire capital structure?
This will be something that will be more important as we see more filings over the next 18 months until a vaccine is found for companies that we might want to own some equity in for the possibility it isn't wiped out similar to GGP in 2009.
Thanks.
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They should do a longevity study with the Berkshire board members in their 90's. There are 3 currently and will be 4 in August!
I wonder if there is any other company in the S&P 500 that has ANY board members that are 90 and up?
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I'm not going to say that Buffett is as on it as he used to be. If he were, KHC and IBM probably wouldn't have happened. With that said, we've had a lot of build up over the past 11 years. Is all of that done in a month and 35% drawdown? I would assume that's what they're thinking. The fact that people are reaching out to him and he's still not talking does not seem to bode well for the economy (unless he's really just super afraid of the virus and is staying put...but I would imagine he would still say something to the journalist). I don't think Buffett is a big market timer but I do think he has superior insight due to all of the business Berkshire is in - even if if some of his stocks picks were pretty bad.
With that said, he had about $76 billion in 2016 so it's not like he's had $100 billion+ for 5 years.
The fact that very few investors today have a experienced a deep and long bear market would be a bit concerning for him (like the 70s).
Most of the board probably remembers, but a few are probably forgetting he had a 3 hour interview in late Feb on CNBC with Becky Quick. He talked about the virus and how confident he is about a vaccine (because of Bill Gates) and he would be buying stocks if they went lower (as he has for the last 78 years). True, this was before the "lock-down" but we have heard from him but not since then. Also, he has said in the past after he comes out with the annual letter and does his CNBC appearance that he wants to wait until the annual meeting to discuss questions about economy, Berkshire, etc, as he wants the shareholders to hear first.
It really is only an 8 week time period that he is incommunicado.
My guess is he did very little buying because it all happened so quick and also that he thought it would get cheaper. He has mentioned more than once if he would have waited longer after Sep of 08 he would have been able to buy a lot cheaper. As for all of his talk about not timing, I heard a lot of regret in his voice when he mentioned that he wasn't buying in Jan, Feb and first 8 days in March.
Buybacks are probably de minimis but maybe his line in the annual report a few institutions took him up on that and sold him some cheap Berkshire stock. I would take the under if there is a bet of him deploying more than $15 billion of the cash and my guess is the Berkshire buybacks are less than $5 billion.
We we will see in about 10 days and hear directly from him. I really hope he doesn't truncate the meeting as one board member intimated based on the comment from Carol Loomis to the board member. This will be the most interesting Berkshire meeting since he took over in 1965. We can't really count the 73-74 as less than 10 people were going to Berkshire meetings then. Well, the financial crisis was pretty damn interesting so this meeting and the 09 meeting are probably the most interesting to get his and Munger's take. Why would he truncate this one? Yes, everyone will be logging in from Yahoo but his audience, I'm betting, will be at record levels since most of the country (excluding Georgia and a handful of others) will still be on lockdown and won't have much else to do.
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I bought a small amount near the intraday low in case the judge does enforce it.
Agreed about it being a scumbag move.
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Any risk arbs have a good background in "ordinary course covenant?"
If so, do you think the L Brands deal will go through? The shares dropped more than 20% today.
PE firm buying it is arguing L Brands violated that clause when it closed stores due to Covid. L Brands is arguing its behavior is consistent with other businesses due to the pandemic.
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USO will have 8 to 1 reverse split on April 28th.
How will this affect puts and calls?
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thanks for the idea. I told someone about this only buying front contract back in 2009 and I forgot about it.
I was able to get a little in for my wife's account but I'm blocked to purchase or short or do options due to my current employer, ugh!
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Robinhood shows USO, an ETF that holds oil futures contracts, was the biggest add today. Retail investors don't know WTF they are buying, and are going to crash into contango. I wouldn't be surprised if USO collapses in the next 30 days. I see absolutely no reason why the June futures won't collapse like May causing massive losses for USO holders.
I bought a very small position in USO July $2 puts. It's actually a similar situation to XIV during volmageddon, and would be 8-10 bags if the ETF liquidates at 0. I don't think it would get to 0, but as seen today the market could get pretty crazy as people realize there is absolutely no storage for physical oil.
Article in FT today saying USO is taking (I believe) 20% of its fund and buying longer out futures contracts.
Does that change your conviction always drawing?
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USO halted!
Are there any other etfs that is doing what USO is doing? I started to put a order on USO 30 seconds before the close yesterday but I didn't get it in before close.
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I don't usually post political related posts but I couldn't resist this one.
AOC is loving this, too! She is cheering on the industry going up in flames (for other reasons, of course).
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I emailed Carol Loomis asking if Warren would be taking questions from shareholders. She responded with the following...
Yes, he is--though the number of questions probably will be shorter than in previous years.
I wonder if it will not be 5.5 hours like the last several decades?
Memo from Howard Marks: "Which Way Now?"
in General Discussion
Posted
Another proclamation from him the market is overvalued.
I guess he just likes to talk to the media to keep his name out there.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/oaktrees-howard-marks-thinks-the-market-comeback-has-gone-too-far.html