wescobrk
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Posts posted by wescobrk
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Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.
Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.
The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.
I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was.
A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense.
how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.
Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first.
I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away.
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Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.
Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.
The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.
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My SPY puts the past couple of days looks idiotic.
2800 on the S&P doesn't make sense to me with the change in consumer spending going forward. The medical experts say 12-18 months at the very earliest. It seems the market is just looking at this as a 60 day pause.
It over shoots on the way down and way up though.
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SPY puts
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Anyone on this board own their own RIA? If so, who do you use as a custodian?
I've considered using interactive brokers but I have heard they are difficult to get the account setup and the assets transferred. The prospective clients that I will be contacting aren't very tech savvy, I don't want them just saying "forget it" out of frustration if it is a hassle.
I'm thinking of using Schwab as I've heard even people that don't know technology can setup the account and do a transfer.
I'm not considering TD as once the merger goes through they will probably push everyone to Schwab anyway.
I've heard Fidelity is fine but not as easy to use as Schwab.
Thanks!
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How many are concerned about the amount of unemployment insurance is higher than a lot of jobs that people are losing their job from?
Why would someone go back to work when we reopen and risk their life working at Walmart when they can stay home and watch netflix?
Munger always talks about how important incentives are.
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I'm going out on a limb and predicting a preferred deal with warrants by Berkshire in the next 30-60 days. Not a controversial comment. The interesting question is which sector? Airlines is probably near the top.
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How many think we will "reopen" US economy by mid May?
I'm not sure if there are voting buttons. I have puts for protection but I also have a some call leaps. I'm starting to think I should have more puts now.
NY is the worst and the governor thinks they will peak by end of this month. The peak doubling time has slowed the past couple of days.
Mid May doesn't sound ridiculous, does it?
I'm not saying the numbers won't come back by fall but there could be a massive rally this summer before it crashes again.
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Dipped the toe twice in WFC yesterday and today; Bought some T today as well.
My assumption is the SP500 will eventually hit 2000. I am averaging my cash position down to that point, so that's the plan I guess ;D
That is the question of the day (S&P hitting 2k). Gundlach thinks we will retest the lows. Marks thinks we are headed lower.
There is already talk of another infrastructure bill of $2 trillion.
I guess it all comes down to if the country "reopens" in May. If we do, then we may not get down to 2k but if we don't reopen by mid May then it will probably go south of 2k and south of 1700.
The market is probably discounting a May reopening is the only reason why we never went lower than 35% from the peak.
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I'm going to need to buy a new laptop in the coming weeks.
I would appreciate anyone that wants to share their favorite laptops.
Thanks.
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What does the board think of Ben Bernanke making references that this isn't a depression and something similar to a natural disaster and will be a sharp but a short recession and a sharp rebound? If you take his comments along with Bill Gates of opening up the economy in 6-12 weeks then things could start to look somewhat back to normal in the summer.
If the market discounts the future and the market bottomed 3 months before the real economy in 2009, maybe the market could bottom as early as April. I would be surprised if we don't hit at least 40-45% down if not 50% before the bottom but if the duration is going to be months and not years, then maybe the bottom is as close as April.
On the other hand, it seems like sectors of this hit we will be feeling the after effects for years, at least for poor countries. Emerging markets looks particularly worrisome.
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Hopefully he can close on a big acquisition like BNSF (although I'm not super impressed with the results from BNSF). Warren being disciplined on price (and buying in 2009 plus buying almost 20% of the stock at very low prices) helped enormously. Apparently, Precision wasn't a great acquisition either. It might not be possible to find another Geico due to all the capital in the world, but I'm confident he can find something by the end of the year.
Almost 90 and Charlie is 96 and still going strong!
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I bought the baby bonds via MFO after the margin call was announced. Figured there was enough meat on the bone to be okay, but now I'm out after the recovery.
Most of these non agency mREITs are zeroes. MRA has a lot of non Agency MBS and residential whole loans. There's no way to properly value the residential whole loans and they were pledged to their repo lines. Those lines total 9.5 billion and they couldn't meet the margin call. I think the equity is a zero depending if the repo counter parties show MFA management mercy and bail them out.
Many mREITs had their assets seized by repo counter parties and are being liquidated. TWO bit the bullet and sold out of their tiny non Agency MBS and took a 55% hit to book value... that means someone like MFA with a larger % being non Agency MBS is a zero.
Thanks for the feedback!
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Do any board members have any positions in MFA? If so, what are your thoughts?
I'm looking to put in a tiny position.
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I have some shorts but I went long quite a bit in the last 5 min of Friday. So much for a bounce.
Maybe down 10% tomorrow? It is going to be an ugly day tomorrow.
I need more cash. How can we not go down more than 50% from the peak as bad as everything is?
The news will be even worse this week.
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I'm so glad he started streaming the annual meeting.
The irony is this will be the best annual meeting Berkshire from his first one in the 60's and no one (physically) will be there.
I'm going to have the popcorn ready for that 1st Sat in May!
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how much are we down from the peak now? around 36%? futures are down almost 5% tomorrow morning so if that holds that takes us to 41%.
Good news is we got a phase 2 very quickly with the stimulus. The government is moving a lot faster than in 2008.
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Anyone want to venture which casinos will NOT go under? MGM is under $9 now. Caesars, Wynn, Las Vegas Sands.
LVS seems to have one of the better balance sheets.
Red Robin I'm guessing will have to declare bk in the restaurant sector.
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i think 20 names might be too low... if they have 10-100x potential then they're likely levered, beaten up, low/negative cash flow, and heading towards the $1 PPS range...
i would absolutely buy a basket of 100-200 of these names if you put the list together :)
ha, ok, I'll get to work. :)
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We are probably a few weeks away, but I'm going to allocate maybe 5% of my capital to potential 10-100 baggers. I'm fully aware most of the companies I choose will go under but if I buy 20 companies and 3 or 4 go up 50 fold, that is pretty damn attractive.
Feel free for anyone to post companies they think might drop that far and are willing to put a small amount of capital for companies that are cyclical and might pull through.
Thanks.
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That's strange. My post didn't go through.
I put the mass looting question was hyperbolic but i stand by the rest of my other comments.
Probably just a story here or there about looting but not mass looting.
Thanks for challenging me.
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I hope we don't see rioting.
40% of the country has less than $400 according to that Fed study, right? How can we avoid mass looting?
How much money do you need? If you don't pay your phone bill, AT&T won't cut you off. If you don't pay for ANY utility right now, no one will cut you off.
You won't be spending money on gas, leisure, hobbies etc. You're just buying food right now. I think most Americans have credit cards right? Trump is trying to send the checks by end of april and I'm betting most of the banks will waive the credit card interest if you really need it.
Good point. I need some caffeine to write more precise. Mass looting was a dumb statement but the rest of my comments I stand by about Congress, market downside, maybe a few stories here and there about looting but not mass looting.
Finally, most Americans will still be getting their next couple of paychecks because most Americans have normal jobs.
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I hope we don't see rioting.
40% of the country has less than $400 according to that Fed study, right? How can we avoid mass looting?
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I have been short some going into yesterday but I realized that 30% down is not nearly enough as this can be worst than 08. I bought a lot of puts yesterday afternoon into the rally. I'm glad I did. I think we have at least another 10-20% down from here.
Millions of jobs are going up in smoke. The unemployment rate will skyrocket.
It will be just like in 08 when Congress wouldn't pass Tarp. Certainly, we will tackle this and things as early as 4 weeks may already have the market bottoming but I'm so glad I put a lot of puts on. If we are down 12% today like last week I'll switch to going long in very strong balance sheet companies.
I might even put my toe in the water in some of the strongest restaurant names but I know there is still huge downside for restaurants.
Will S&P500 retest the March Lows (comparison April 20 to April 3)
in General Discussion
Posted
Nothing new but Marks is getting louder about how the market is overvalued
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/widely-followed-investor-howard-marks-says-the-stock-market-rebound-is-not-reflecting-reality.html