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wescobrk

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Posts posted by wescobrk

    Joel Tillinghast Finds Big Returns in Small Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I don't understand the part that he has to buy stocks that are less than $35 a share. Seems very arbitrary. I guess that means he can't buy Berkshire if it falls below book like in 2000. Maybe he could outperform more if he didn't have so many restrictions.

    That being said, I read his book and I enjoyed it. Nothing groundbreaking in it. I thought it was a good read, though.

    Whitney Tilson is shutting down his hedge fund

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    He was doing well up until 2010, I can only assume he was shorting stocks he thought were overvalued but they kept going higher.

     

    I remember him publicly shorting Netflix and Reed Hasting writing a public letter convincing him to drop the short... Not sure how much that hurt him..

     

    He was vocal about not liking Trump and getting out of stocks because of not liking him and that he was 60% cash. I found this surprising that he would make such a hasty decision not on whether the stocks he owned where fundamentally cheap but rather on an external factor. Basing investment decisions on your politics doesn't seem like a sound strategy especially when your making those decisions with other peoples money.

     

    He must have been asleep for the past 15 years of Munger meetings.

    Dhandho Holdings!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Why would he give a damn what people say on the internet?

    He clearly has made a lot of money off of the partnerships so he can do exactly what he wants to do for the rest of his life.

    I wouldn't care about internet posters (no offense) If I succeeded as well as he has (despite all of the criticisms of his inconsistency and long term track record performance).

    He's probably smiling every day he checks his bank account.

    Costco Selloff

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Anyone think the 30 bucks selloff is a overreaction to Amazon buying Wholefoods?

    I'm not saying COST is cheap at this level (although it almost never seems to be cheap) but it looks like an overreaction.

    My guess is it will be closer to 3-5 years to see Amazon start taking share from COST.

    Shrinking the Feds Balance Sheet

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

     

    At the end of the day the 10 year treasury yield is a barometer for market expectations of growth + inflation.

     

    Maybe it isn't both anymore since the last 8 years the economy has grown at 2 and inflation has been 1.5 so more like a 3.5 10 year would make more sense.

    Timeframe of next correction

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for everyones comments.

    There was a little bit of truth to my comment as Buffett has spoken in the past when the market was elevated (such as in 2000) he predicted the returns would drop to I believe mid single digits. We have seen his cash rise a lot with the market is elevated, technically he is't "timing" because obviously no one knows when it will happen, but he is timing to some degree because he is calculating a lot lower rate of return if he buys at high levels, so clearly somewhere in the equation is a drop over some time frame, just like his statement about 10% probability in any given year means 99.5% change it'll happen over 50 year period.

     

    Buffett is timing, I believe, it's just over a multi year period. This is an arbitrary number, but I believe when a market is overvalued, his calculation is that happens say, within a 5 year period.

    Soros Short Bets Big Against US

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I'm not copying the cnn article in case there are copyright issues, but the headline was he bets big with a $430 million short bet.

    The article also says his net worth is $25 billion.

     

    How the hell is 2% a "big" bet?

    Sounds like a almost zero conviction bet to me.

     

    I guess I'm getting cranky as I get older, but how the hell do these articles get written?

    I guess they got me to click and that is all that matters.

    Who cares about quality of writing now?

    BRK Ever Hit 1.2?

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    In a couple of months, I may have access to my 401k as I may start a new job.

    I would love to put a huge amount in BRK if it were to go below 1.2.

    Even in this volatile market brkb doesn't seem to go below $125.

     

    This seems like waiting for Godot.

    Hopefully it drops below in March or April.

     

    Anyone know the 1.2 number.  Does it have to drop another 4% or so?

    Edit as I should have put prospective 1.2 book over the next quarter or so, as a 2 second google search I can pull up the last q number.

    I don't want to come off as a lazy ass.

    Thanks.

    Size, Mispricing, and Buffett

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry - just curious why you think real estate is dumb?

     

    I just mean you don't need an Investment IQ of 150 to do well in real estate. Same goes for indexing. These are smart investments for most people (say 99%). And micro-caps are dumb investments for most people.

     

    I agree about micro-caps being dumb for most people.

    I definitely fall into that category.

     

    It's far easier for a simpleton like me to buy a great company after a big drop.

    Buying a micro-cap seems extremely difficult to have 15%> CAGR long-term. At least for my feeble qualifications.

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