backtothebeach
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Everything posted by backtothebeach
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I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
backtothebeach replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
Life is stranger than fiction: How USA based Better.com CEO Fired 900 colleagues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miq85pDnfX8 Silicon Valley - Gavin firing Nucleus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u48vYSLvKNQ -
What was your worst mistrade?
backtothebeach replied to backtothebeach's topic in General Discussion
A day trader might have tried to put a trailing stop on it and let it run If you’re not a day trader I think the best course of action is to close out a fat finger mistake immediately. Especially if it goes against you, just suck it up. If you try to wait a little until it gets back to even, the market can start playing tricks on you. It usually goes further against you until you panic and close at the bottom. -
What was your worst mistrade?
backtothebeach replied to backtothebeach's topic in General Discussion
Yeah I was thinking more about execution mistakes, sloppy trading, fat fingering an entry. Another mistake I have made is selling the (same strike) call instead of the put. I realized the mistake when the underlying went up - then bought the underlying to create the initially desired position (covered call = short put). In a bull market sometimes mistrades still work out... The worst however was about 20 years ago. I thought I had spotted a stock where bid > ask. Traded it back and forth a couple of times like crazy before realizing it was already after hours and I had only looked at the decimals. In reality I lost more than 5% on every round trip. I called IB, being a total wreck, and was incredibly lucky that they busted the trades. Not a mistrade really, just being young and stupid. -
Given the fact that I still compare prices in the supermarket, not to mention when booking flights, it is weird that I can piss away a substantial amount on a mistrade and only be mildly annoyed. Sold some deep ITM ($90 strike) BRK-B Leaps today. I first looked at the middle price between bid and ask. It looked about right, considering time to expiration and interest rates, $0.50 above intrinsic value. I submit and it fills immediately. Turns out my vision was off or something, it was actually 0.50 LESS than intrinsic value. Just handed away $1 per B share to the market maker. Damn! Anyone wants to share a mistrade? Might be fun and maybe we can learn something from each others' mistakes.
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BOMN @ 27.86
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A stupid little trade on BABA. "Poor man's Covered Call": BOT BABA Jan20'23 100 CALL 32.80 SLD BABA Jan21'22 130 CALL 5.20
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Sold the portion of Fairfax that was above what I really want to own longer term. Probably too early, but the thesis when not being able to resist averaging down about a month ago was that a 15-20% bounce was almost certain to happen at some point. The bounce happened. Trying to be more disciplined and not allowing thesis creep.
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400 Private Jets Arrive For Climate Conference
backtothebeach replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
"Joe Biden looked like he was just taking a quick nap during the first day of COP26, the UN’s landmark climate summit on Monday. The US president couldn’t keep his eyes open during human rights activist Eddie Ndopu’s speech on the climate’s impact to disabled people." https://ca.news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-appears-fall-asleep-151712955.html --- Can't blame him. 400 private jets to listen to what? Next speaker on the climate's impact on trans people? -
Sold short 2 (two) shares of TSLA after hours at $1221.50.
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"Better than cash" Euro investments?
backtothebeach replied to backtothebeach's topic in General Discussion
Thanks for the ideas. My OP was poorly worded, the goal is to find cash alternatives in Euros that are still low risk, but have a satisfactory yield. -
Asking for a family member who wants to avoid negative interest rates. What would be some alternative to cash, or low risk investments, keeping it in Euro? One possibility they mentioned was a German Real Estate fund (Wertgrund WohnSelect D), which I don't know much about. I suppose German multi family real estate in second tier cities is relatively safe.
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Systemic Risks From The Rise of Crypto
backtothebeach replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
The global crypto market cap is $2.63T. Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/ -
El Salvador's president Nayib Bukele on Twitter: ---------- It was a long wait, but worth it. We just bought the dip! 420 new #Bitcoin -- 3:40 PM · Oct 27, 2021 Hahaha we’re already making a profit of the #bitcoin we just bought. -- 4:40 PM · Oct 27, 2021 How do we make a profit if 1 #BTC= 1 #BTC? We have a trust fund accounted in USD, but the trust is funded by both USD and BTC. When the BTC part revalues in comparison to the accounting currency (USD), we are able to withdraw some USD and leave the trust with the same total. -- 5:08 PM · Oct 27, 2021 ---------- What could possibly go wrong?
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There is a lot of info to be found online, so I'm not going to start going into details. The main theory is that the price of a stock or index will eventually pass through every price point that exists during market hours, and not just gap up at market open above an all-time-high and never close that gap. I wouldn't read too much into it, maybe it's just an artefact of the random walk.
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A long time ago I read a post on the Motley fool analyzing gaps with historical data. The overwhelming majority of gaps close. Unfortunately I did not save the post, and I’ve been looking for it a few times but just can’t find it anymore. Now, this is a value investing board and technical analysis may be a big no-no, but one of the few things that could possibly be working is gaps in my opinion. I just checked and there’s only two price gaps that SPY did not trade through eventually in the last five years. Both are in April of this year. One is really small only six cents on April 1st, but the other is $2.71 on April 5, 2021, from $400.67 to 403.45. I believe at some point in the future SPY will trade down to $400 again. The only problem is from where. Maybe it will reach $500 or $600 before it drops back to $400. So while this is not really actionable, I think it is a good data point to keep in mind.
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Added to STLC
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I click on "Unread Content" when I visit, open the threads that interest me in new tabs, then click on "Mark site read". Many ways to the same end.
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Bought back some DLTR short $100 strike Oct/Nov (covered) calls at a loss. Keeping long $50 strike January 2023 calls. I find buying back the short calls at a loss is one of the hardest things to do. But when a stock moves almost 20% on 10 times average volume it gets my attention.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
backtothebeach replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Another up day for AAPL and down day for Berkshire. I have "real-time" BV, calculated with the stock portfolio and proportional operating earnings up to today, at $215 per B share. P/BV of 1.31. -
Anthony Weiner may sell his infamous crotch shot as an NFT https://nypost.com/2021/06/07/anthony-weiner-may-sell-his-infamous-crotch-shot-as-an-nft/ Already a couple months old, but a chuckle nonetheless.
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This is THE MOST DANGEROUS time regarding covid
backtothebeach replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
Well if this table lower in the article segments the data correctly, especially the severe cases per 100k people within each age group, it is pretty conclusive: -
Poor man's covered call on BABA: BOT BABA JAN 20 '23 100 Call Option 82.10 USD SLD BABA AUG 27 '21 185 Call Option 1.50 USD Net cost $80.60 Either a 10-12% return in a bit more than a week if the short call goes in-the-money, or I can keep selling calls, possibly rolling them up, chipping away at the $9 time value in the long call.
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Q2 stock holdings are out. Not a lot of movement: from https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK KR Add 21.01% AON Add 7.32% RH Add 2.02% OGN Buy USB Reduce 0.62% CVX Reduce 2.32% ABBV Reduce 10.23% GM Reduce 10.45% BMY Reduce 15.27% MMC Reduce 20.63% MRK Reduce 48.79% LMTYK Reduce 74.46% AXTA Sell 100.00% BIIB Sell 100.00% LBTYA Sell 100.00%
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Nice call! CRBU has now retraced 33% of its $ gains from the low of $15.03 to the high of $28.96. If it retraces 50% the reentry price could be around $22. I actually don't use TA usually, but how else would you find a method for trading around a position if not retracements, support/resistance, or gaps? Interestingly there are no gaps to be filled, even though the rise took only 9 trading days.
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I don't claim to understand everything explained in the link, but I think Bernie Madoff would have found this interesting. Doesn't sound like anyone will go to jail over the lost millions/billions.
