changegonnacome

Oh let me be clear I think Bibi is acting very rationally here...and he is doing EXACTLY what I would do.....destroying Iran, the regime, its nuclear program and pulling the USA directly into the conflict to get that done is in Israel's best interest....the question is if its in America's best interest to get pulled into the region to fulfil that goal on Israel's behalf...I'd humbly argue it is not...the nuclear deal under negotiation was in America's best interest. Israel decided to take that off the table and here we are.

Well he didn't stop Bibi starting one......and very soon, there's a very good chance, this will be our war to....and not one like Ukraine....one like Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam....I hope not...but IMO thats where we're headed.....Bibi is like Donald Trump with brains & strategic cunning......I have almost no doubt if Bibi's aim is to pull the US into an Iranian conflict (and it is) then the hardest part of that plan has already been achieved....he managed to get a 'no red light' sign from the WH to up the ante with Iran and go ahead with this strike....now he'll run rings around DJT slowly pulling him and the US further and further into this fight. Tiny little incremental commitments till we're waist deep in it. Hope I'm wrong - but make no mistake about it THIS Israeli war cabinet led by Bibi make Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton look like Ghandi in terms of their desire to use military force.

Good for Bibi if and a BIG if….he had the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, effect regime change or defend Israel entirely on its own and without an iota of US’s assistance….but he doesn’t. And so his strategic aim here, for months now, has been to pull the United States into a full blown conflict with Iran to do the above on his behalf. Last night was down payment on that plan. @cubsfan I’m not sure what your happy about…what we’ve always seemed to agree on….is the nation building, region building folly of overseas US military adventures costing hundreds of billions of dollars and American lives were a mistake…the DJT narrative is that he is not a war monger….i can assure you the war mongers in DC are making steak house reservations tonight….there is high probability on foot of these event that the US has just found its new forever war……Iraq/Afghanistan v2.0. Make no mistake about it - Bibi is in Jerusalem now with his two fingers crossed on both hands hoping Iran attacks US military forces in region such that his dream above comes true.

How an Israeli-American deception campaign lulled Iran into a false sense of security - Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-an-israeli-american-deception-campaign-lulled-iran-into-a-false-sense-of-security/amp/

My point is the following - I think you completely overestimate Israel's autonomy/sovereignty in such matters. To the point where you mentioned above that you believe the US can play a role in further nuclear negotiations divorcing itself from what just happened. I'm just trying to help you understand that in the minds of the Iranians & in the realm of reality that is not the right take. Will Wechler at the Atlantic Council has the subtle nuance here right - "We should assume that Israeli leaders would have interpreted the absence of an American red light as a de facto green light." - https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/unknowns-knowns-and-early-predictions-about-israels-strikes-against-iran/

Jerusalem Post article today - https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-857590 Israeli official to 'Post': 'There was full and complete coordination with the Americans' "We presented the American administration with evidence of Iran's breakthrough toward a nuclear bomb. There was full and complete coordination with the Americans."

From an Iranian point of view....and frankly anybody who understands the intricacies of the Israeli dependency on the United States for weapons, intelligence, air support, military aid, financial aid, defense....its not possible, with credibility, to say United States was not part of the attack. This is a left hand, right hand scenario. Now the right hand can claim the left hand acted unilaterally and the right hand was not part of the attack.....but I can assure you nobody in the Iranian regime or in the wider Middle East has a view like this.

Sufficiently removed?......i'm not too sure you fully appreciate the security relationship or should I say the dependency relationship between Israel & the United States. There are very consensus issues in D.C. - medicare, social security, China as a peer competitor and defending Israel. Its simply not possible for the United States to be removed from a conflict involving Israel.....make no mistake about it.....if things escalate in the Middle East with Israel at the centre...the United States is at the centre of a conflict there to...not a Ukrainian-esque conflict where we send money & good vibes......but one involving direct US military intervention.

The US is hand in glove with Israel….proxy doesn’t do the relationship justice….51st state might be a more apt description….if/when Iran retaliates (as per last Oct)…the US will be chiefly responsible for defending Israel….lots of PR nonsense out there about the Iron dome…what last October showed is the true iron dome is really a deeply elaborate and expensively resourced US military assets in the region.

there’s simply no question the US will be dragged in….Israel is completely dependent on the US security umbrella to defend against Iranian missle attacks like those last October

Israel but Bibi especially have been saying Iran is weeks away from a nuclear weapon for about 15yrs now

And profitable....great time to get ahead of an ultra-Dove Fed Chair who personally 'owes' Captain Chaos 200bps of rate cuts.

Another TACO trade - Rates are coming down......way down.....even if the inflation data says they shouldn't.....Trump is going to appoint Ivanka Trump to be the next Fed chair (i joke)....but you get the point....Trump is going to do deal with the next Fed chair where he needs to commit to scratching this Presidents back by getting aggressive on cuts before he gets the gig. Yield curve control, real rates below inflation....the old monetary getting the fiscal out of trouble trick.

yep - this and Kristi Noem tweeting "suck it"....says a hell of alot about the folks running the federal government....people of true competency and integrity (regardless of political affiliation) do not act this way.

Well first of all I should point out that my list above is Federal tax contributions.....the taxing being done here to send to Kentucky is not being done by State level officials....its being done by whoever is in D.C.......the reason the federal taxes being extradited from NY/CA/NJ are so damn high is because of the federal tax systems progressiv nature married to the fact they are so damn successful (as measured by income/capital gains)....you can measure it in other factors like potholes or vibes if you like.....but hard to escape the fact that the most successful States in the Union (economically) are places that the right wing media machine would like to convince you are falling apart.....except they keep printing higher and higher GDP contributions every year.....

Beijing Puts Six-Month Limit on Its Ease of Rare-Earth Export Licenses https://www.wsj.com/world/china/beijing-puts-six-month-limit-on-its-ease-of-rare-earth-export-licenses-ec8277ed?st=6F2AZf&reflink=article_copyURL_share This is what leverage looks like........the Chinese have been preparing for this trade war for 20yrs probably getting control of important critical items as a point of leverage if they ever needed it.....their structured thoughtfulness has paid off.....our guy (Captain Chaos) rolled out of the White House on liberation with no plan, not even a plan for a plan for a trade war....just a bunch of giant printed cards blowing in the wind with Islands named on them populated only by Penguins....and the results are what you would expect....he has got his head handed to him by the Chinese. Sad.

If Trump was in the software business - you'd say that all he ships is vaporware. We are months out from "liberation day"......and best I can tell what you've got a ~10%+ federal sales tax on imported goods...and some minor non-needle moving trade wins.....net net it was, as many things are, a Trump PR stunt.....a made for television event......the WWF fake wrestling philosophy applied to politics.

Turns out the richest man in the world doesn't have free speech......tough luck for everybody else......as some commentator pointed out recently corporate criticism of this President has been the most muted he's ever seen.....who knew vindictiveness, retribution and weaponization of federal authority works to silence public criticism. Not a good sign when Elon.....Jeff Bezos etc. start rolling over to get their belly tickled by administration.

Ah yes Law & Order lectures….from the same guy who pardoned 1,500 criminals who illegally entered federal buildings, beat up police officers and destroyed federal property while chanting “hang Mike Pence”….lets not forget that little nugget when we talk about Captain Chaos being some law and order guy

"What you REALLLLY need to do Parsad is what I've been trying to tell you about - you got to get into this AI trade bro. Its gonna be bigger than the internet bro, I promise you bro"

Isn't that their own business? And isn't minding your own goddamn business kind of one of the fundamental values that underpins American values....we fought a monarch & a King to mind their own business and get out of meddling in our affairs......and here we are a few hundred years later and a guy in D.C. is sending troops into California 3,000 miles away from D.C. cause he can't mind his own business.

States that Send More to the Federal Government (Net Contributors): New York: -$89 billion California: -$78 billion New Jersey: -$70 billion Texas: -$67 billion Washington: -$55 billion Massachusetts: -$46 billion Minnesota: -$44 billion Ohio: -$37 billion Illinois: -$28 billion Missouri: -$22 billion States that Receive More from the Federal Government (Net Recipients): Virginia: +$79 billion Alabama: +$41 billion Arizona: +$40 billion South Carolina: +$37 billion Maryland: +$35 billion Mississippi: +$30 billion New Mexico: +$29 billion Louisiana: +$26 billion Kentucky: +$23 billion The funny thing is watching politicians from net recipient states (like Alabama) telling States subsidizing them that they are a mess.....its kinda like your broke lazy alcoholic cousin (whom you lend money to on the regular) giving you financial & life advice.

As Newsom pointed out on twitter to Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville who was trying to dance on California’s troubles….all while Alabama has triple the homicide rate of California. Facts, not feelings.

And trampling all over State's rights......the courts will decide whether this was over-reach or not.....but it sure looks like it to me.....nothing I saw in L.A. required federal military intervention all incidents and violence the LA police force is trained and equipped to handle..........sending in the National Guard and then the Marines was nakedly political move....designed to embarrass & damage a democratic political contender for the next Presidential election while giving off strongman vibes to your base.

Punks robbing tshirts from an adidas store - sounds like a job for the Marines...........