changegonnacome

Can I ask a quick Q here - obviously stabelcoins being hailed as a new payments rail with Circle going up hugely upon IPO....and then the GENUIS act was passed..........MA & V in response to the new law.....not a blip in their chart......so something not quite matching up......or most certainly the story that stablecoins are going to disrupt MA & V is considered unlikely.......any thoughts?

Well he's in full beast mode at the moment trying to deflect with all he's got so math has gone out the door with reason....its about throwing meat to the conspiracy core to see if they can flood the zone with shit......Obama treason & sedition ....and see JFK Jnr. out now helping the cause with conspiracies about hospitals working to steal the organs of live patients while they we're still fighting for their life. https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/rfk-jr-organ-donations-premature-removal The core Epstein MAGA group eat all this stuff up.....its targeted so directly at them to shut them up its scarily obvious.....I'm very surprised we aren't get new unclassified documents on the existence of ALIENS & UFOS this week...but it is only Wednesday I guess....there's still time for E.T. to change the narrative!

Who's gonna pay the tariffs on Japanese autos.......I wonder what the market says.......cause it aint Toyota, back to Jan 1, 2025 mkt cap.....if Toyota isn't paying the tariff.....I wonder who is....

Yep I can assure you - this is most certainly the EU playbook Trump is racing towards being yesterday’s man….in fact, the Epstein debacle, is accelerating this phenomenon. EU et al are happy to pay a small Trump surtax for at most 30 months….and they won’t sign any legal agreement that will stick during that time….they know the story with this WH, after the PR event, after the flashbulbs are gone….Trump doesn’t follow through…the PR announcement is the point….real change, substantial , permanent reform is hard work……and nobody is there to slap you on the back…..PR events & MOU signings and investment commitments of trillions of imaginary dollars are way more fun!

Meanwhile...Trump says drug prices are coming down 1000%! I can't wait....they are going to pay me to take my medicine.

Yep....and looks like 15% deal incoming for the EU......this is something I can speak to with a bit of authority......I know the cost differentials between the US and EU for manufacturing across a few different industries (medical devices & other high end manufacturing).........25-30% is a good ballpark.......nobody is on-shoring to the USA and away from Europe for a headline 15% tariff......but the reality as everyone knows is that the 15% tariff is not absorbed 100% by the manufacturer....depending on the product, elasticity of demand & competitive environment.....I think a good average is to assume that maybe, just maybe the manufacturer is eating 5% at best.....for things like medical devices its going to be a lot less...they are not good domestic substitutes for lots of these products. So the reality is that 25-30% cost delta to production in the USA versus EU has now closed to at best 20-25%......no incremental factories land in the US as a result of this.....US consumers/insurance compabies absorb a ~10% cost increase on EU goods including things like medical devices (stents, hips) etc. The other dirty secret that Trump wouldn't like anyone to know - these arent trade deals of course......they are kind of temporary trade conditions......basically memorandums of understanding with all the tremendously boring details to be hammered out..........the EU, Japan, China....know whats up.....Trump is 18 months out from being a lame duck President (likely sooner due to Epstein stuff)....there are endless legal challenges to his powers to do this.....regardless I will be SHOCKED if any of the large trading partners (EU, Canada, Japan) sign an actual trade deal during Trump's term.....they will run down the clock....first to supreme court certainity, then to the mid-terms and the begining of his lame duck session and then out to his departure.

Not sure if any Japan/auto experts here.........15% tariff on Japanese autos???......looks to me like that isnt enough to close the cost to manufacturer delta between the US and Japan (i've seen ~20% as being a good ballpark as the delta).....so in a practical sense not a huge incentive to move incremental entry level manufacturing capacity on-shore especially when you layer on the Japanese domestic desire to keep homegrown manufacturing at home...... So this 15% tariff....doesn't reach the high bar required for incremental US on-shoring......and Japanese autos retain their cost competitiveness versus US producers.......while out-performing them in quality/reliability...... Whatever flows through to consumers here (& given entry level auto margins) most of the 15% will in time end up flowing through to US consumers.....how does this not represent a lets call it a 10% federal sales tax on cars sold to the bottom 20% of American households (by income) with no discernable quid pro quo in terms of a factory down the street producing Honda Civics or whatever. More and more as these tariffs deals get done......it looks to me like its a shakedown exercise for cash....shaking down allies and stealthy shaking down US consumers.....no doubt about it Donald is showing the US had untapped trading leverage with its trading partners.....going after that untapped leverage reminds me of large retailer in a death spiral shaking down its suppliers for lower prices and extended payment terms.......you get to do that trick once......but you torch all the goodwill you have....in a business sense....its short term greedy versus long terms greedy....the Treasury account will get a boost from all this revenue this year and next.......I wonder if you looked out a bit further 5 , 10, 15yrs.....do these actions (shaking down global partners for a short term cash infusion).....optimize the wealth and prosperity of the US 10 or 20yrs out......I'm not sure....it all seems a little short sighted & unstrategic.

Its funny to watch Trump impale himself on this issue.....he chose the wrong strategy......there is political pain for him in Epstein files no doubt.....but he's made it 100x worse for himself by trying to keep it hid from view likes this.....those files are coming out now by hook or by crook.....and as I say he's made the potlical price to be paid much worse than it otherwise would have been. Trump is not a paedo....and I dont believe for a second that the Epstein files indicates any definitive wrongdoing by the President in the past.....but what they do show from recent reporting.....is Epstein wasn't just an acquaintance of Donald in 80's & 90's as he'd like you to believe.....Epstein and Trump we're very very very good friends......many who knew both men at the time have indicated that they we're for this period what some might call chidlishly 'best' friends.....the Epstein files will likely show a pattern of communication & meetings in this period that confirms what many observers from that period have said publicly that they we're bros....the hung out together alot.....they had the same interests - money & women.....and that isnt a crime.....but it is politically toxic...and most especially now that he has spent weeks trying to re-direct MAGAS attention to other things....most recently Obama treason etc.......when this info comes out it will accelerate the Trump lame duck timeline where the GOP and those within it start thinking about the post-Trump era and who will replace him at the top of the party. Nope the walls aren't coming, he wont be leaving office in a couple of months time.......but his agenda, the almost total control over the GOP he exerted in H1 2025 looks to me like 'peak' Donald.....it was always going to be so.....the Epstein stuff has just slammed on the accelerator of the politically inevitable....the decay of Trump's power and influence.....dont get me wrong...sub Donald for any President with the same dynamics....two term, 80yrs old and not doing well in the polls....Trump at times has looked immune to political gravity....but he's not going to dodge the bullet which is becoming yesterday's man quicker than he would like.

Financial harm was done - we just can't say who it was done to. Somebody in the year Trump received the loan suffered financial arm assuming DB's lending capacity wasn't infinite that year and the wider credit systems lending capacity wasn't infinite. Its impossible for a victim to complain in these types of cases......as they dont know they are victim.....its why systemic integrity is so important in fungible credit systems......base layer disclosure integrity matters.....lots of cases in life where cheating the 'system' has no direct counterparty victims. The case was a blatant overreach into the past - politically motivated it turned out to be counterproductive.....Trump has maybe only 5-10% of his political base....this 5% puts him 'over the top' when you stack it on top of ride or die GOP voters.....the Dems forgot the Presidential math and just how thin it is......voters who hate the current system, traditional politicians....wanted an outsider....an anti-elite candidate....Trump already had the bonafides.....when the system went after him further post his Presidency to stop him going for or winning a second term.....they activated 2-3% of the population that put Trump over the top in the General (shitty candidates in a senile Joe Biden & then a manufactured unnatarual polticitian in Harris didn't help either). The Dems lost the Presidency as much Trump won it.

You are correct. However that argument is like a kindergarten level understanding of the interconnected nature of the financial system & why we have laws around bank fraud. Misrepresentation of your financial position to get credit on more favorable terms is illegal because (a) it risks the fidelity of the risk based systems which allows credit to flow through the economy & (b) your financial statements need to be legally correct to ensure a level playing field where those who are misrepresenting their finances do not receive loans INSTEAD of those that are being truthful but get denied....because at the end of the day the supply of credit available is finite....financial institutions pick people or companies to give credit too at the expense of others they don't. You want a rules based financial system where credit flows to its highest and best use.....that exercise starts with a legal disclosure regime which prioritizes truthfulness and accuracy....on top of which underwriting decisions are made. Its not hyperbole to say a legalized credit disclosure regime is one of the bedrocks of the credit system.....we saw in 2008 what happens when its cleverly circumvented. So the victim of Trump's financial misrepresentation - was another more deserving capitalist enterprise that Deutsche Bank did NOT extend credit to for their project versus the Donald's.....which is to say a deserving deal fell apart because it was truthful....and Donald's deal proceeded because he lied. Ex-post arguments that it all worked on Donald's deal and DB never lost money is the wrong framing. So lets be clear Donald broke law.......an important law which is an important part of our capitalist system. He deserves to be castigated for his business behaviors and they are unbecoming of a President. However the crime was so long ago, the pursuit of it so politically motivated that I am happy to admit that it amounts to the lawfare label that was placed on it. Frankly apart from anything else the Democrats who pursued the case only served to feed Trump's outsider image and so the lawfare backed fired spectacularly....cause in the olden days discovered bank fraud by a Presidential candidate would have been enough for voters to abandon that candidate as not being fit for office.....but we aren't in the olden days......the level of distrust in the system has risen such that the old rules of political pedigree and character dont apply anymore........the Democrats we're playing a game that doesn't exist anymore........disgust had risen so much in the system that anybody (even a person of low character) who could claim he was an outsider to that system and was bold enough to change it could cobble together a winning majority for the Presidency.

Nobody should be for illegal immigration - and nobody should be for legal migration as mechanism by which to drive down labor costs......legal migration should IMO always be about addressing skills deficits and/or labor deficits..... I'm familiar with some rural towns I visit frequently and stay in hotels there....and in speaking to hotel managers there....it is not a question of cheap versus expensive labor for the cleaning ladies they have on staff......he has attempted advertising cleaning jobs at much much higher salaries to the local community......and he's indicated that if it weren't for immigrants it would be simply impossible to get cleaning ladies for the hotel rooms.......migrants aren't competing with domestic labor here and driving down prices.......domestic labor has completely withdrawn its supply from this job category and my hotel manager friend has run the experiment (offering way above minimum wage to attract domestic staff)......

Updates: Johnson Shutting Down House Early to Block Epstein Vote https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/07/22/us/trump-news Hilarious.....so much for transparency and fighting the Deep State........

Great example.....the great tragedy of course is that these folks are illegal in the first place.....that the roofing firm needs to knowingly break the law to stay in business and provide what is an essential service (a roof!).....that the geniuses in D.C. cant come up with a system that solves the economies acute labor shortages in certain sectors without unduly depressing blue collar bargaining power is a disgrace. Too much bank to be made being too easy on immigration on one side (the Dems) and too nativist on the other (GOP).

100% the left...if left to their own......would literally self-destruct a society with immigration......too much of good thing can be made a bad thing....somewhere along the line the global left lost their mind.....for a while the right had to follow along (against their instincts lest they are accused of being racists)......global air travel AND information technology meant the asylum system and other systems of immigration got 'hacked' by economic migrants......one chief outcome was creaking infrastructure health and housing....dumping population into a market like housing which is deeply inelastic results in outsized and upward movements in cost and downward movement in availbilty.....we've always had NIMBYISM something else is occuring......housing used to scale with birth rates.....the turn around times are such that it has no hope of catching up with say the 8-9m ilegal immigrants that came into the US in the period 2021-2024. Trump instincts on this are correct.....though his methods performative.......the border crossing results speak for themselves......hopefully the Democrats might do the country a favor and try to come to comprehensive immigration reform with the GOP/Trump in the next year or two....immigration can be a wonderful thing (both skilled and unskilled).....the chaotic system that has governed it for the last decade has totally broken down.

I didn't say the base - I said hardcore MAGA these are the QAnon people, the folks who stormed the capital....they are a small part of the movement in numbers.....but they are responsible for perhaps 80% of the noise in the digital MAGA ecosystem....they can't stop, wont stop re: Epstein files....and why should they......Trump + his orbit promised them transparency....what they've gotten so far is very suspicious backtracking and attempts at re-direction away from the Epstein files.....when Pam Bondi only a few short weeks ago was indicating the Epstein files we're on a fastrack to be released...and now they aren't....in fact now the Epstein files are hoax created by Comey & Biden....a hoax they strangely never used against their political enemies........whats changed, who instigated the change and why?.......QAnon people will not let such questions go unanswered without a fight.

We shall see......what seems inevitable here is that Trump has two choices.....let the drip drip drip of Epstein leaks carry on for the next three years which seems unsustainable to me....the hardcore MAGA's wont stand for it.......or release the files in their entirety only redacting the details of the VICTIMS.

its the question that just cant be answered by MAGA folks without their brain breaking! The answer is just depressingly simple......Elon said it best...

We will.....my sense on this.....is that the QAnon MAGA core wont rest till the full files come out.....their spidey senses for a conspiracy have gone off and they just cant help themselves scratching that itch.....Trump is, I think you might even admit, acting weird & a little 'yippy' around all this Epstein stuff....who knows maybe he's just a loyal friend....and is trying to protect Howard Lutnick's name going through the dirt as Howard and Epstein shared a wall in NYC (immediate next door neighbours)....maybe Howard has something to worry about and Donald the loyal friend is trying to protect him and is acting as his heat shield.

I've said the opposite at least four times now. The issue with Epstein files....is not that it shows Donald is paedo......the issues with the Epstein files are they show that Donald lied about the nature of his relationship with Epstein. I think what the Epstein files might show is that Donald might represent (when emails, texts, social engagements & tallied) a relationship that goes far deeper than merely acquaintances. The Epstein files....and the fact he wont release them.....is because Donald's connection to Epstein go far beyond a passing relationship.....Donald it appears was enough inside his inner circle to warrant getting into the 50th birthday card book.....I suspect the Epstein shows a pattern of contact that shows a much more substantial relationship than Trump has let on. The political heat Trump is taking here....his desperation to distance himself from it.....his refusal to do what is at is his fingertips which to release the information to exonerate himself.....the pivot now to only Grand Jury evidence which is a desperate attempt to throw some meat to the base to see if that might shut them up on the Epstein.....suggests, to me, that the core FBI/DOJ Epstein files, the trove of information they collected, must show something even more damaging than a deeper tie between the two men........they are likely to show he continued communications with Jeffrey way beyond his 2005 paedophilia conviction....something which Trump has been unequivocal about. Trump is acting like a cornered rat......if he's completely innocent.....he sure as hell isn't acting like it.

Well as I said here - the WSJ's has quite literally bet the house here that its legit or most certainly they went above and beyond to verify its legitimacy....its a paper that generates I dunno perhaps $150m of net income p/a.....and the cost of being wrong here is hundreds of millions. I guess what we should also clear up....as I find this always with MAGA....is they vehemently deny that XYZ accusation could be real about Trump....so strong as to suggest that if XYZ we're true it would obviously be disqualifying .....then when it gets proven to be real.....MAGA says who cares, it's a nothing burger.........the irony is they spent a huge amount of energy to deny its veracity indicating it was a something burger. So tell me @cubsfan & @73 Reds....for posterity and for when truth comes out....because I think its impossible for the truth not to come out now > (1) if turned out Donald was lying about the nature, closeness and frequency of his contact and relationship with Jeffrey Epstein most especially past his 2003 paedophilia conviction. Is that problem for you? Something burger or Nothing burger? & (2) when it becomes clear that the reason the Epstein files havent been released to public in full, as per Trump/Bondi's campaign promises, is that your favourite President is all over those files in a way that is deeply disturbing (no crimes) but again showing a deeper, more entwined & long standing relationship between the two men that stretches far past his 2003 conviction for paedophilia and the contents of which contradict numerous statements Trump has made regarding how well he knew Epstein and how he cut off what little contact he had with him post his 2003 paedophilia conviction. Something burger or Nothing burger?

Somebody is lying.......guess it comes down to whether its the company with hundreds of millions at stake.....or the man who lies about things big and small.

The sad reality I'm afraid is there is not much left to do....which makes his 50 day ultimatum all the more puzzling......I can't think of a single thing that could be done by the US and EU (in the realms of political & military reality) in 50 Days time that is going to change the trajectory of the war in Ukraine in a meaningful way. Putin has been clear on his settlement terms. I guess they represent such complete capitulation by the West that nobody can countenance agreeing to such a deal. Putin has cleverly manipulated Trump such that Trump's cards have been turned firmly over for all to see - it reveals - zero fundamental commitment ideologically or morally to trying to 'win' the war in Ukraine that would give Putin a moment's pause but to continue to edge towards the final destination here. Let me be clear though....even if Trump we're committed to winning......there is no way to win the war IMO in a way that exists in political reality. Nobody in the West is sending their young men to die on the Eastern front of Ukraine and the US is not going to engage directly in a bilateral war with a nuclear power. Ukraine needs more fighting age men and more artillery.....the former remains off the cards....and on the latter we are coming up severely short. Russia will win (has won) an ugly victory.....and controls the four oblasts in the East.....if not official annexation, de facto annexation has already occured.......and so you've got a frozen conflict.......Ukraine will be a rump state constantly under the cloud of further Russian aggression and so foreign direct investment and rebuilding capital will be reluctant to enter....NATO membership will remain off the cards given the risks to Article Five...and the Ukrainian state will be in a quasi bankrupt state reliant on welfare payments from the European Union and the USA to continue to function. Russia's strategic aim for the last two decades has been for a neutralized & neutered Ukraine, a puppet regime in Kyiv would have been ideal (this was the dream of the March 2022 invasion)......but a rump state teetering on the edge of collapse will suffice. I'm not sure whats to be done here by Donald, its a terrible quandary......the best he can hope for is that there is no dramatic moment of collapse of the Ukrainian forces on his watch which would be his Biden-Afghanistan moment.....so there is bold self interest in supplying the Ukranian's enough to ensure that doesn't occur......hard to see how the Ukranian's keep going here for another three and half years such that this 'moment' lands on the next President's watch.

Which is exactly why they published the story...they have nothing to fear...the WSJ went around the houses on this, it is, at the end of the day a very damaging story about the occupant of the White House who is both hugely powerful and deeply litigious......the WSJ and Murdoch aren't in the financial suicide business.......the source, the sourcing, their due diligence on the letter itself have been done to the highest of standards and documented and you just know this to be the case......the WSJ & Rupert Murdoch knew they had hundreds of millions if not billions of defamation litigation liability exposure riding on the efficacy of their reporting here.......if you think they just 'made this up' you have inverse TDS.

C’mon now - never said that - I consider it to be non-fatal to his Presidency….when your a confirmed non-angel….not sure MORE Epstein buddy stuff changes anyone’s opinion about you….guess the scare here (for Trump team) is that core MAGA are conspiracy theorists….while I can figure out Donald with 99% certainty never did any paedo stuff….to save his own embarrassment he’s acting like a paedo(which is dumb)….and this is not good politics….big issue for Trump this term is maintaining power/control of the GOP for as long as he can …. he is very soon just by two term limits…destined to be yesterdays man….if core MAGA was to abandon him he might find house and senate republicans kicking back against his various oversteps earlier than one might expect….its THIS….that he most fears….some of it is no doubt his desire to get his agenda done, no doubt some is to keep the POTUS dollar gravy train going for Trump Org as long as is possible…if this Epstein thing gets worse the GOP might accelerate their ‘moving on’ process from the Donald….which prove to be very costly for Don Jnr & Eric business plan

Because Trump knows......as anyone might know......that if the WSJ has gotten access to the Epstein files (which it certainly sounds like they have).......this bawdy letter......is really just part one....in a multi-part release where other embarrassing morsels will be revealed over the coming days and weeks. So you asked why make more of it if you we're in Trump's shoes........its because Trump knows this, as he knew this story was coming out over a week ago....and so has nothing to lose......except to see if large litigation might be enough to scare Murdoch & WSJ in to not releasing the rest of the dirt they have. It won't, cause the Journal has done their work.....read the article.....a journalist didn't write it, a lawyer did. The reality is that the WSJ would not have released Part One of the Epstein files......if they weren't damn sure its real.....and so these legals threats are a laughable internally and they will continue with what they have collected and substantiated....which means Trump dream of scaring them into a pause wont come true....he'll have to be content with the booby prize which is at least this litigation is exactly what somebody who's innocent would do so he gets to carry on the the charade and so those most inclined to believe him i.e. his base might give him the benefit of the doubt.....so the optics are good, even if the chances of stopping Part 2, 3, 4 coming out are zero..... while everybody else who understands how much rigor would've been put into substantiating a high stakes story like this for Journal would realize there's a very very very high probability that it's real. Timing is curious....wouldn't surprise me if the source isn't the lady who collected the letters for Jeffrey's birthday - she just happens to have an appeal at the Supreme court that Trump & Bondi's DOJ have urged the court to ignore - https://abcnews.go.com/US/doj-urges-supreme-court-turn-epstein-accomplice-ghislaine/story?id=123752067 - she has remained remarkably quiet & restrained over the years....but now might be waking up & giving heartburn to all the people who have reason to have heart burn....... as her dreams of freedom disappear.