Xerxes

+$60B signed off and no algorithm-driven pop on the open on the big defense names

I love it every time you mention this.

It is not about sharing values with the leadership and specific people on the top. If it were like that it would be doom to fail and last exactly as long as those people are in power. That is true both in the West and the Orient. Mao had cordial relationship with Moscow until Stalin died. It was downhill from there. it is however about having a common belief of what kind of world we should have. This kind of values goes beyond specific leaders and can last for a long time. But it comes with a price tag. One has to give to be part of that. Your point of view of Germany First is actually is no different than Trumpian point of view of America First. Russia, China, and Iran, today their values are based on very narrow interests of having a common enemy. That is not deep value. And is in fact highly brittle as it involves leaders and not countries themselves. An average Iranian, Chinese and Russian living in those countries have far different sets of value and sense of priority. An average European, Canadian and American have a much more aligned sets of value and what it is important. One is brittle while the other is long lasting. But like Cubsfan said, one has to give.

It is not complicated folks. Alliance based on deep value goes somewhere. Alliance based on opportunism goes exactly that far. PS: let’s hope Bibi and his pals also have some grand vision of Marshall-plan like plan in mind for post-War Gaza. That is not just blowing things up with no economic and development plans for the day after. Ok fair. The rich Gulf Arabs have to pay. They got too. They are the one that have been sustaining the dream. Let’s hope just like the Americans with Japan and Germany, Israel don’t have “designs” on actual lands and people living there. Just there to shape geopolitics. And nothing more.

“I am ready; aid or no aid”

Few years ago, I was in Beijing. Did Xian, Chengdu, Yunnan (best part of China), Guandong and came out of PRC via Hong Kong through the land border. The group I was with were mostly Europeans. And mostly British (I love the Brits for the their sense of adventurism), mostly my age, but with few elderly. One of them was a just retired Swede lady. She had taken the Transiberian train from Europe and passed through the land border into PRC and was in Beijing just in time to start this part of her trip around the world. That was 10 years and a few invasions ago. That how easy it was to get around. Today the same person wouldn’t dare plan a trip like that. But I have no doubt that the pendulum can swing that fast again. ——- On Isfahan, I actually been there. But barely remember anything. For now both of us, we got to make do watching YouTubers eating Isfahani food.

That is a little bit overdramatic. Europe is fine for vacationing. All the way to Poland. My biggest regret is not being able to see St Petersburg and Moscow and do the transiberian train. That is a goner for the next 10-15 years

Couldn’t agree more. That said this happens all over the world. But for some reason this Israeli-Palestinian issue gets a lot of oxygen, from both sides and their unconditional-unbending-supporters talking their pre-established talking points. A tragedy but not the only one in the world. I think I am going to start a thread about the end-game of Azerbaijani and Armenian. There were three wars in the past 30 years, and just like the three Punic Wars each shorter than the one before. The end results is exodus of Armenian from their historical lands, which was part of formal post-Soviet Azerbaijan territory. One of the many frozen conflict that came because Soviet Union disintegrated so fast.

That is fair. Cannot argue with the logic that one needs a sociopath brute to beat the other guy’ sociopath brute. I don’t have a problem with that logic. Though it aches my body. As long we understand we are not confusing him with some modern version of FDR, Woodrow Wilson or Sir Winston. Men with vision of not only today but the day after. Have a nice weekend

I recently re-watched House of Dragons S1, before S2 is released in June. I highly recommend people to re-watch. It has great re-watch qualities and a lot nuances that needs reminding before S2 kicks off. Cannot wait for the Greens and Otto Hightowers to fall. They are nothing but usurpers.

Thanks. Will start this weekend.

Not much different than Netanyahu himself. Who just happened to be democratically elected. So he gets a pass and Westerner are required to bend-knee and repeat and carry his words like gospel. Looks like he is got a new lease on his current job, and manage to get aid unblocked, divert attention from Gaza. Truth political survivor. I personally am an admirer of Moshe Dayan. The Israeli defence minister with the eye patch. Bygone era. That is when men were men. And soldiers were true soldiers. But that’s just me. Nowadays, people going around on twitter making meme on how their “truth” is more true than other side. Politicians just lie through their teeth. Anyways, enough of me talking in this thread. None of this is investment related.

Hamas has many factions. Haniyeh in Qatar was of its political wing. The military faction (that very possibly kept 10/07 operation secret even from its political wing) is led by the psychopath whose name escapes me. He lives on borrowed time and on his line of credit.

There are some unconfirmed Breaking News coming out of Tehran speaking on the condition of anonymity: Iran and Israel have now an understanding that a new large Starbucks flagship coffee shop is to open in downtown Isfahan. Israeli helped in clearing the area, Iranian put on some fireworks in the sky. This is a developing story …

Fake, but still sounds like him

it maybe that in the 2010s, FFH was a “holding company” with its investment and therefor its fortune was heavily tied in BB, Resolute etc. Still worse they had an unusual appetite for large illiquid holdings. A “holding company”’s fortune improves only on the back of its investments. One has to sell an investment in gain to re-deploy elsewhere. And they just happened to be bad investment in 2010’ FFH era. Today, it is an “operating company” where the operating cash flows gushes in to make new investment, letting past investment mistakes dwindle in size harmlessly.

Thanks. I was actually to skip King Rat as it was his first published one and no major history arc in it.

thank you. will look into this. Those few words could end up be the most important part of this investment/insurance AGM.

Pete, Going on same theme of embedded call option getting good value in recent years for FFH, do you see a similar “step-change” in Berkshire history in the 90s and 2000s, where it was the optionally that got fully valued more than anything else. Is Berkshire being ready for the disaster that GFC was, counts in your opinion as the same as FFH being ready for a major re-rating ?

Finished the book. The last few pages cover like 10 years or so. The show is at episode 9. One more to go. Episode 8 and 9 were straight from the book (with minor changes that made it better). It is incredible to see how the producers were able to create a show based on such complicated book without oversimplifying it. Reading this book I have learned more about Japanese people in that era, culture wise than the past 25 years of my life reading history books about Asia. This novel somehow seeps in all the cultural nuances that gets missed just by reading history books. I think I will read Tai-pan next that deals with merchant families in Hong Kong. According to Wiki: Four of the six books—Tai-Pan, Gai-Jin, Noble House, and Whirlwind—follow the dealings of the great trading company Struan's, the Noble House of Asia (based on Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited), its founder Dirk Struan, and his various descendants. Gai-Jin provides the major link between the Shōgun and Struan's storylines.

Plan within plans within plans. This is right out of Frank Herbert's Dune.

Medical question: Anyone understood what medical test Prem Watsa was talking about in the AGM ? that he makes available for everyone in the company. Related to the heart. I recall few years before Covid, I think his CFO passed away. I wonder if that was the reason why this initive was started.

I am less than 25 pages from the end. Of the 1,100 or total pages. Somehow the author is going to weave and wrap all the plotlines in those 20 or so pages.

interesting title they chose for the book ”ruthless” ….and not “relentless” as they should have. Is that a miss ? I don’t know if you are familiar with that historical tidbit. go to www.relentless.com see what happens