Xerxes

Great interview. folks call the recent SVB akin to tightening, Gundlach sees it as easing (disinflationary) as the bonds are being paid full face value (I am guessing he is referring to SVB securities portfolio)

Looks like the internet community have it beyond doubt that it was NOT from a Top Gun deleted scene, with Tom Cruise flying a stolen Su-27. Now if the same internet community can put their effort and intellect to solve an actual mystery (Nord Stream pipelines) that would be great. This “T1000 drone Terminator vs. Su-27 Flanker” episode I think would be classified under cat-and-mouse game that always been there but now running with more threshold for risk. Perhaps to “normalize” of military engagements/contacts between the two nuclear powers. The more you blur the line the more you can leverage your hybrid warfare. I think there will simply be more of these pushes by the Kremlin. But nothing consequential will come of it. That said listening to news reporter asking Pentagon officials in press conference if the drone incident was an act of war was hilarious. These silly reporters seem to forget that NATO led by U.S. is actually at war with Russia. However it is a war were both sides have decided to fight within a certain framework of containment.

is this a deleted scene from Top Gun 2? We have been betrayed !! It seems that Paramount has been keeping a hidden Extended Edition version of Top Gun (ala Peter Jackson LOTR) to double-dip our pockets

I think by definition HTM do not move in value (either up or down) with interest rate movement. They are amortized over their duration. Their so called movement in value that is being talked about are based on “look through” marks. I.e. should they be M2M, equity goes up/down this much It is the AFS that will get the snap back effect accounting wise. perhaps someone can comment on my comment

Hey at least they are getting some snap back on the M2M unrealized paper losses. If we can’t have FFH locked in even at higher rate (higher interest payment), reversing paper losses is your second prize (unwanted as it is)

How about Canadian banks with US exposure instead. TD, RBC (that has presence in California), and less so BMO

Steve Eisman showed up for about 10 min on CNBC. “Don’t be Hero” he says “Don’t be Hero to Zero” he says (no he didn’t say that I made it up)

Interesting comment on Closing Bell pod on CNBC: measuring P/B but adjusting B for unrealized bond losses

They stayed short-term since 2016, and kept the view no matter what came (covid), believing that secular bear in interest rate will be long term, secular and with many cyclical dips, here and there. I think today’ yield dropping is a scenario in line with a cyclical dip. So FFH stock will/should dip, because market will see that as them missing the boat. But they got their eyes on that long term secular bear.

This BBC documentary caused a raid at their office in India !

US drone: Russian jet forces down MQ-9 Reaper over Black Sea | CNN Politics The Reaper drone and two Russian Su-27 aircraft were flying over international waters over the Black Sea on Tuesday when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel on the unmanned drone several times, a statement from US European Command said. The aircraft then hit the propeller of the drone, prompting US forces to bring the MQ-9 drone down in international waters. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder added Tuesday that the Russian aircraft flew “in the vicinity” of the drone for 30 to 40 minutes before colliding just after 7 a.m. Central European Time. “Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa, said in the statement. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”

Anyone remembers few years ago CharlesSchwab was advertised by the investment community as a large rate hedge and that it was going to do really well as the interest rate rise shoots up it was no-brainer !!

Arb play

https://news.yale.edu/2015/09/22/living-artifact-dutch-golden-age-yale-s-367-year-old-water-bond-still-pays-interest

Great read https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-demise-of-silicon-valley-bank?utm_campaign=post Prof G makes a good case about Goldman being able to take over SVB and ramping its east coast exposure considerably.

^^ You said it better than me. it was a point of view that was very hard to explore during the Korean War, when the prevailing point of view in DC was that of giant Red block with Moscow at the centre. Kissinger’s genius was recognize the different shades of red and explore them. on a different note, reading a book on a topic few years ago, it came to my attention that the Presidential B.707 plane that carried Nixon to Beijing, first landed in Shanghai, there Chinese navigators join in, and help flew the Air Force One to Beijing. Or Peking.

Anyone has access to this article ?

Agreed. Korean War should be called U.S-China war since that is what it was. Much like Ukraine War, is more of NATO-Russia war. Korean and Ukrainian are/were innocent bystander. Like always. Vietnam war, however, was Vietnam with the U.S. China played a much smaller role, and Vietnam fell in the Soviet block and not the Red China block. All sins were forgiven however with Nixon and Kissinger. So fair point there.

Because we chose to totally obliterate Germany and Japan. The only reason they were rebuilt was because an economically strong post war Germany and Japan were a good hedge against communism. It was not out of kindest of heart. If there were no Soviet Union, there would still be troops garrisoning a broken Germany and Japan. In case of Iran, US has done everything to strangle the country for 40 years economically. Only hurting average people. That sin is above and beyond of the constant interference, directly helping Irak in the war, that cause a million death and injured.

Ukraine is at war. Any/all enemy infrastructure(s) are all fair game, if this was indeed sanctioned implicitly or explicitly by the Ukrainian government. If it is just a terrorist attack by Ukrainian (but not sanctioned by Kiev) than it is what it is. However, a NATO member explicit support is a red line. My unsubstantial view was that (and has been) that Poland had a strong role play in this.

Nope Blackberry took the other side today and went down 10% today.

Not just wars, also hardware and weapons. The first batches of F-4 phantoms, during the early age of air-to-air missiles did not have cannons, because it was said the age of cannon-equipped plane was over with F-86 being the last of that gun-equipped breed fighting in the Korean War. Sure enough subsequent batches of F-4s all had a 20mm guns. And is a standard feature on all fighters since, up to F-22 and F-35. 2022: oh no the age of tank is over. We will see perhaps Ukrainian using tanks correctly. Not to argue with Bradley, the last of the rare breed that is a five-star general, but one can write different books about many thing that contributed to tip the balance in the second world war. Given that Bradley was probably a 'logistics guy', it is probably reasonable comment by him.

Thanks. Though wouldn't KO be also be one of those owned through the float and not directly through the group's balance sheet.