Xerxes

Watch the full video of Donald Trump talking with Jim Cramer at the NYSE

I have not seen anything first hand. Then again I live the leafy suburban life. And not much happens around me. That said the one incident that was recent downtown was this lady whose family operated a Second Cup coffeeshop in the Jewish General Hospital. She was seen doing the Nazi salute during a protest and saying idiotic things like Final Solution. She was recognized on camera and her family got their franchise pulled by Second Cup. Montreal historically had a leftist, anarchist tilt to it. Nothing to do with Trudeau nor the Middle East conflict. Just that anti-war protest overtime attracts these anarchists. On Trudeau, he needs to go. It is high time. I would want a conservative government. That said I also don’t need a prime minister (the current conservative Opposition who is jockeying for the job) whose only foreign policy slogan is “we must stand with Israel”. As if of all the issues that exist in the world, he needs to go out of his way to highlight that one. I need a prime minister who has balls and stand for what is right and one that has conservative mindset. And not some dummy who is going to repeat Bibi’ slogan.

and that is something that even Fairfax India does not have. An asset manager play for third party funds to manage.

The Russians are doing the same thing I do with my car on a heavy snow day, when I have to move it a bit further. If not the snowplow rebellious crew may make good on their threat to tow my car if left there.

the industry fell on sympathy for FFH not making it into the index.

thanks John. I think though the word “terrorist” was not used on Monday. While it was used just few days ago. Much like the West, Kremlin makes great strategic use of the word.

I don’t think there is a relation between Turkey’ control of access to the Black Sea and the port itself. The port is Russia’ only major port in “war waters”. and needs to keep it and will likely keep it. I find it, highly unlikely that Turkey will push for the new regime in Damascus to push out the Russians. That would be too big of step change between Moscow and Ankara. the winner needs to leave something on the table for the other side. Edit: it is not like there is a “land access” from Russia to the port in Syria, in which case it is a “bypass” to the Strait of Bosporus. The two are independent.

I would disagree. it took 13 years for Assad to fall. The end may have came fast, but that doesn’t take away 13 years of staying put (granted w/ help) and surviving. For Egypt under Mubarak and Iran under the Shah, its closest ally (Obama and Carter, respectively) just step aside and let them fall. Once that happened they lost heart. The same way Moscow and Tehran just stepped aside in 2024 for Assad, and he lost heart. There are no rules to these things. Libya’ Qaddafi was ruled like herd with himself as Shepherd and once he fell. It collapsed easily as there were no strong state like institutions behind the man. In case of today’ Iran and Russia, I think power is institutionalize. There are a lot powerbrokers, and entrenched interests. I think what you are describing is more possible with North Korea. With government that has leader with a strong cult of personality. I don’t know if I am making sense in how I am describing.

https://apple.news/A2kn1BLAoRUGaZhTqBwbZtQ Just read this one. pretty good read from WSJ.

“Can a butterfly flapping its wing in Amazon forest cause a hurricane in the Pacific” Sinwar successfully flapped his wings. The dominos brought down Damascus elsewhere. Turkey is interesting. Just like Iran was a net beneficiary of 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2011 Arab uprising, the Saudi war in Yemen … at the expense of others Now turkey is the net beneficiary of the Ukraine war and the near east conflict with Israel-Palestine. Turkey was able to score two major gains just in two years: Armenia and now Syria; at the expense of Iranians and Russians. Not to mention flexing its power through the control of the passage to Black Sea for military vessels. It is party time in Constantinople this Christmas. If it was being celebrated.

Putting aside the regional powers and the shifting sands and ebbs and flows in terms of their influence, the net winner could be the Syrian people, and their chance at new beginning, IF (big if) their revolution doesn’t get hijacked by “hardliners” factions within the rebel coalition.

Just a guess. No reporting. It is the bill that needs to be paid to get Moscow non-involvement. As soon as Aleppo fell, the die was cast. No longer the question of “if” rather “when”, and the “when” came really fast for Damascus. and for practical reasons, given who are the rebels’s imperial masters are, focus will be undoubtedly be eastward, against the autonomous Kurdish region.

And just a few letters later the large FX position is largely closed out.

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations. Consequence: Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon. Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well. Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus. Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

Finished reading Tai-Pan. Definitely not in par with Shogun, but very enjoyable as it shows settlers, traders trying to balance foreign interest, commercial interest, the Crown, the Manchu emperors and the Chinese secret societies, in the bid to build a up a colony that would become Hong Kong. Will start reading Gai-Jin in 2025, which although is the last book James Clavell wrote, it is chronology right after Tai-Pan, that takes the story back to Japan and it involves the trading companies of Hong Kong and their commercial interests that were presented in Tai-Pan. Hulu/Disney are confirmed to be developing Seasons 2 and 3 of Shogun. I do wonder what is exactly their scope of work and if they will fast forwarding to Gai-Jin era. According to Wiki: Four of the six books—Tai-Pan, Gai-Jin, Noble House, and Whirlwind—follow the dealings of the great trading company Struan's, the Noble House of Asia (based on Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited), its founder Dirk Struan, and his various descendants. Gai-Jin provides the major link between the Shōgun and Struan's storylines.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crl3ndxglwxo.amp There has been a plethora of recent articles reminiscing the “lost opportunity” of Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal. Ukraine was certainly played with the so-called guarantees in exchange for removing the nuclear weapons. No question about it. Question remains however, in my view, if Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, were actually the heir to that arsenal. It is not like that had command and control. Yet I will also add there were a large number of Soviet leaders who were Ukrainian or of Ukrainian origin. That makes in my view Ukraine equal to Belarus and Russia and above other Soviet states. The support that Ukraine provided to the Soviet cause is immeasurable, both being an engineering Center of excellence (Antonov), a breeding ground for military and political leaders as well as being the breadbasket feeding the empire. But does all these make, Ukraine, the legitimate heir to the Soviet nuclear arsenal, just by virtue of having a significant part of the arsenal physically located there ? What do board member think Not completely unrelated, I recall reading that the gas pipelines in Armenia are owned by the Russian State. Another legacy of the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union and freezing of status quo.

This really REally good. That is what we call. Good script, good acting. Show me something like that on Netflix

CP will have some headwinds with this new trade whatever it is going to be. No ? GE had a clear thesis. The break-up. But for CP, the rational of Kansas City needs to shine through

Just like Microsoft cashed in at some point on its investment on Facebook so did Siemens on the airport. At the end Microsoft didn’t invest in FB as an asset manager would with an eye to generate IRR on its FB stock performance. At some point, Siemens has finished planting its technology seeds, and holding on the asset within its four walls doesn’t give them a good IRR, which only means that it becomes available for a new investor with a different four walls, IRR and time horizon. just assets exchanging hands.

Pretty good podcast with the new U.S. treasury secretary, talks about his hedge fund days. this was released on Nov 4th, before he became official candidate. Maybe it was recorded prior to that and it was re-released. I do not know. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/capital-allocators/id1223764016?i=1000675587280

Siemens is Siemens. It is not there to make directional bet on infrastructure assets using its balance sheet. Now unto some comparable transactions. Link below talks to GIP, Blackrock, their investment in Sydney Airports and the ones in UK. https://www.netinterest.co/p/hard-assets

it happened and you are correct. technically look-through is at a smaller %.

Thank you John. Longest night is just a few weeks away, than it is downhill from there, slow at first and then suddenly While longest night only few weeks away, we (in Canada anyways) usually hit rock bottom in February on the mental side, that is when we start booking summer vacation to make us feel better

Happy thanksgiving. cheers !

It is hard to imagine a financial institution buying back for the sake of increasing the % ownership of its largest investor which happens to be foreign at that. stock buyback does tend to benefit institutional investor than retail, even though the economics are identical. what does an old retire tells his wife when he needs to spin a story as to how his “ownership” increase is a good thing as oppose to actual cash dividend. it is possible that some years down the road Eurobank may do large buyback as a private placement between it and Fairfax.