Red Lion

What data? I’m no expert but I just googled this and ai says that 80-90% of millionaires are self made in the USA. Do you have other numbers?

Only the bad ones. Good zip codes are always filled full of people from all backgrounds that clawed their way to the top. Unless I misunderstood your comment which is possible.

I think Biden got elected by promising to be a centrist, and then immediately sold his soul to the progressive woke brigade. I’d like to see a centrist too, from either party.

+1 Also totally agree here, and I think the septic repairman analogy holds quite well I was just having this discussion with a friend after getting an $1,800 bill for a 3 hour job.

+1 But I am cautiously optimistic about his performance for much the same reason as @73 Reds points out below. It’s sad that our country needs such an asshole, but otherwise it seems to be going down the woke shitter. Donald Trump is like the foul mouthed septic repairman. When your world is overflowing with shit, you just need someone willing to pump it I guess.

I don’t remember this because I wasn’t born. But I’ve read about it, and it’s terrible. Still, I’ve spent my entire professional life watching white men (and women) getting passed over for DEI hires. That gets old too, although I fully admit it’s not nearly as bad as the racism you cited. I for one am a big fan of meritocracy. Racism is antithetical to meritocracy. Even when we are being racist to somehow make up for our grandparents being even more racist 60 years ago.

I actually would like to see that debate, if it didn’t imply they were the two candidates for 2028.

I 100% agree this is extremely unfortunate. What I also think is unfortunate is that our non viable third parties have spent the last 20 years running candidates for president. A viable strategy would have been to try to pick off some house seats or maybe a vulnerable senate seat. Could you imagine the difference in this country if the libertarian and Green Party controlled 20-30 house seats and a couple senate seats? I think it would be a huge improvement and force some bipartisan negotiations. But I think the democrats would stand a better chance of effecting change if they had an open primary. Because then they would likely nominate a centrist which I think is what is needed to win the general election. I wish the GOP would do an open primary too for that matter. For the last decade or so both parties have been essentially pushing out anyone willing to work across the aisle. Both parties trying to seize more power while they’re in office while skirting congressional action. And when it does come to congressional action, both parties have been catering to their core rather than addressing issues held by the voters.

The last I checked I think the betting markets were putting JD a little over 50%, and trump somewhere close to 10% I have no idea though. I’m certain JD Vance will try. If maga is still running the gop in 2 years I imagine it’s going to be whoever gets anointed by trump.

The Democratic Party needs an open primary. They will likely select a progressive in the primary. Current betting odds seem to be favoring Newsom or AOC. Neither of which is likely to be popular with the marginal voter who want a centrist candidate.

If you had millions of cash that (still) need to be put to work in this idea, why would you be shilling an illiquid bond? Wouldn't this be the amateur move?

And a 70 year bond is a stock cross-dressing as a bond..

I've definitely bought APO when it's cheaper, but I feel very comfortable with this company and the management. I think this is a safe (but volatile!) 12-15% IRR over the next 5 years even with some multiple compression down to 15X ANI.

Added to my APO position.

I agree, and AI seems to be accelerating that trend. With services to start. This is exactly what I see happening over the next couple decades. I think the new tax law provides large incentives for reshoring, labor is the missing piece of the puzzle, but AI is going through an exponential growth curve. All of the pieces are in place to see heavy investment into robotics with a favorable tax regime for growth CapEx.

I think deflation is just as big a risk as inflation over the short term too. Isn’t this a continuation of the last 30 (50?) years where we have deflationary forces and low interest rates, with the top 20% doing great and possibly experiencing higher asset prices as a result of the low interest rates? Probably a massive oversimplification, but it seems these trends are likely to reemerge over the next few years.

Wouldn’t consumers still pay higher costs on imported items? If an importer had to buy a credit?

Maybe I’m the one with mental decline, or at least poor reading comprehension. Completely agreed with that.

There’s no evidence of decline though. This is the exact sort of dumb stuff trump was saying in his first term. If anything he seems to have learned a lot since his first term, which doesn’t indicate decline.

This was my first thought as well. Was surprised to see the headlines evolve.

Because I'm sure you went to law school hoping to become an ICE lawyer. lmao

I think we are in complete agreement. I never buy the Trump hype for the best (insert policy choice) in the history of the world. But domestic growth CapEx in the USA is at least somewhat more attractive than it was 6 months ago. Mostly because of the taxes, but I'm sure there are some winners from the tariffs and deregulation as well.

If you take tariffs in a vacuum I would agree with this. But the tax bill provides a tremendous amount of policy durability with huge write offs for companies to invest in domestic growth CapEx. Will companies find ways to make more long run fixed asset investments which they can get up front write offs on? Will 15% minimum tariffs benefit some of these investments? Do deregulation of the environmental review process and other regulatory hurdles make it incrementally more likely for more of these fixed asset investments? We can both agree that Fortune 500 companies aren't going to rush to build new underwear factories in California, but I believe it's clear that Trump seems to have a plan that goes beyond a smash and grab to finance tax cuts for the ultra wealthy with tariff revenue. Maybe Trump is a Russian spy who is going to end the democratic process in the USA, and usher in World War 3 and the Great Depression 2.0. Maybe he pulls off some onshoring without toppling the economy and without fixing our ballooning debt. Maybe he proves everyone wrong.

Now what if the government were to implement Buffett's idea of trading import/export certificates, and then tax the transaction value of those trades? This would effectively boil down to a tariff which toggles up or down with the trade deficit and might not piss off our trading partners.

Pretty much...hasn't that been the default for many decades? Short of doing a massive entitlement reform, what's the alternative? Do you see massive entitlement reform in the cards? How to raise enough revenue to lower debt/gdp without actually causing a deep recession? VAT? Tariffs? More payroll taxes? Selling minerals? Renting out our armed forces? I feel that the default or inflation is nearly inevitable, history and politics favor inflation over default.